Navy at Midshipmen at UAB Dragons*
College Pick on a Total
I’m breaking one of my handicapping rules with this pick:
“Do NOT force fit a pick. A game either qualifies or it doesn’t.”
As the saying goes, “Close doesn’t count unless it’s horseshoes or hand grenades.”
I’m desperate for an NP Under spot.
Why?
Here’s a reminder of the six year record:
2020: 28-4, 87%
2021: 34-21, 63%
2022: 34-32, 51%
2023: 21-17, 55%
2024: 23-13, 64%
2025: 11-5, 68%
Combined total: 151-92, 62%
Each year I get fewer and fewer plays that qualify.
Four weeks into this season and I haven’t had a single game qualify.
So yeah, I’m getting a little desperate.
One of the qualifying parameters is a 7 point differential between my number and the books.
This week I have a 6.9 differential in the Navy/UAB game, based on the book’s total of 51′.
I need it to be at 51 to qualify.
Close, but no cigar.
(Today, carnivals give out stuffed animals for prizes. But in the early days they gave out adult gifts, like cigars. And when someone barely missed winning, the booth attendant would yell out “Close, but no cigar!”)
See that? In my articles you not only get picks and analysis but worthless trivia tidbits, too.
But I digress.
Back to Navy/UAB.
Despite not fully qualifying, I’m taking the Under.
I see the line at 51 at one book already but I don’t base my ‘capping on lines that most bettors can’t get, I use the common number that is readily available to most people.
But every book at 51’ has extra juice on the Under so I anticipate this game qualifying before kickoff. If it doesn’t, well, then I’m breaking one of my standard handicapping rules and forcing a pick on a game that doesn’t fully qualify.
Navy is 2-0 Ov/Un this season.
UAB is 1-2.
Navy’s two games saw scores of 68 and 57, scary stats if you’re looking for an Under in this one.
UAB’s season opener against Illinois saw 65 points scored but the next two games came back down to earth a little bit with combined scores of 46 and 35.
Last season these two combined for 62 points.
Considering the stats noted above, 51′ looks to be too low for this year’s game, making it even more foolish to break one of my Cardinal rules and take this game Under, despite it not really qualifying.
But, I’m doing it anyway.
Navy’s starting quarterback Braxton Woodson is out with an ankle injury. Being forced to go with their backup QB should reduce Navy’s scoring ability. Last season, starting QB Horvath went down in their game against Rice. The following week, with their backup QB in, Navy only managed to score 10 points.
The Midshipmen’s weakness is passing defense. UAB is ranked 117th for passing offense; stat-wise they shouldn’t be able to take advantage of Navy through the air.
My play:
Navy/UAB Un . . . Wait. No. I can’t do it
There’s a reason I have rules.
And the reason I don’t force fit plays and buy games that don’t fully qualify is because they usually lose.
Everybody knows Navy’s strength is the running game. UAB is currently ranked 108 against the run, giving up almost 200 yards per game.
Navy’s weakness is passing defense and although the Dragons haven’t had any success through the air they haven’t played a pass defense as porous as Navy’s.
And, oh yeah, Friday night totals?
Week One: 4-2-2 Ov/Un
Week Two: 4-1
Week Three: 2-1
All games combined, 10-4, 71%.
Seems like playing under the Friday night lights is conducive to Overs.
My play:
Navy/UAB Ov (wait to buy as the number is dropping)
*Yes, I know their name is the UAB Blazers but their insignia is a fire-breathing Dragon, and it makes no sense to me to have a cool looking, fierce icon and not use it for your team name. (Who the hell came up with the name “Blazers” anyway? Might as well just call yourself the UAB Sports Jackets.)
Note – I also have two Saturday games that have a differential of 6.9 right now.
I’ll use Friday night’s results to guide me on how to play those two spots (unless the lines change and I get my differential of 7 points, then it’s an easy call on the NP Under.)
