Stanford at North Carolina WF1 Play
Former sportsbook manager RBD breaks down his Stanford vs North Carolina pick, explaining why he’s reluctantly backing Belichick despite distractions and shaky stats.
Prediction and Analysis
I can’t believe I’m actually going to bet on Belichick.
Even worse, I’m laying points with him.
And worse than that, I’m laying a TD or more??!!
I usually wait until after a game ends to start second-guessing my bet, but I’m already scratching my head over this choice.
Systems and stats aside, there are two things I try to avoid when making a pick, and I’m ignoring both of them with this one.
First, I don’t like betting on teams with distractions, like coaches with a Lolita girlfriend, in a very public relationship.
And it’s even worse when he lets her hang out on the sidelines DURING THE GAME.
Seriously, what is wrong with Belly Chick these days, WTF is he thinking??!!
Second, I like to avoid betting on teams with coaches who are on the hot seat.
How do I know Bill’s on the hot seat?
Because both he and NC University officials have publicly denied it.
To anyone who grew up in NY/NJ during the seventies, this is known as “Pulling a Steinbrenner.”
(Ya gotta miss George though, there was never a dull moment when he was around.)
NC is just 3-5 SU with Belichick.
And they’re not just losing games, they’re getting their asses kicked, with losses by an average of almost 20 PPG.
And it’s not like their wins have come against stiff competition. They beat two bottom feeders — Syracuse (3-6), Charlotte (1-7) — and an FCS team, Richmond.
On the bright side of my Tar Heel’s pick, there’s this:
NC is 2-0 ATS as home favorites this season.
On the not-so-bright side is this:
Those wins came against Charlotte and Richmond.
Which brings us to this week’s opponent — Stanford.
The Cardinals (yes, I know it’s supposed to be singular, but that’s stupid and I refuse to play along) come limping into Tar Heel territory with a record of 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS.
On the road they’re 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, so as Spackler would say, “I’ve got that going for me.”
The one saving grace giving me a little peace of mind as I put my money down on this one is this: Stanford’s losses are coming by an average of 23 PPG, and four of the five were by 20 points or more.
So with all the Tar Heel stat ugliness, and the Belichick distractions, why am I betting on NC?
My betting model WF1 says Stanford should be the Favorite in this contest.
WF1 is 17-27 overall, a 61% Fade.
It’s over 58% so that’s good enough for me to make the buy.
But it’s even better when I break it down into the subcategory of home/road.
WF1 is 10-20 when it’s a road team.
That’s a 67% Fade and for me, 67% is the Holy Grail and I’ll buy it every time, regardless of what other stats say.
I also have a subcategory of WF1 road spots that’s too convoluted and complicated for me to explain here so I’ll spare you the details.
I’ll just say that it’s 3-6; 67% again.
One way to get the critics off your back is to blow somebody out, and with Duke, Wake Forest, and NC State as the only other teams left on the Tar Heel’s schedule, Stanford presents the only opportunity for Belichick to temporarily silence the people who are calling for his head.
Thoughts on When to Buy
The line opened at NC -9.
That number was too high because although Stanford stinks, North Carolina is equally offensively odorous.
Which is why the number dropped to -8½.
Then -8.
Now -7½.
IF the line drops to -7, some of the players who bought Stanford +9 will buy back NC and shoot for the middle. So IF it drops to -7 it probably won’t stay there long.
This is a wait-to-buy situation.
IF -7 starts to show up, I’ll grab it right away.
If not, I’ll buy the hook.
I don’t like paying extra juice to get a better line.
But I also don’t like betting on Belichick.
And seven is a key number.
As always, I’ll try to do an update in the Forum with the number and price I get.
Recap
2-1
Record
15-16
Review
I banked two W’s with the NP Play, fading the Over in the NC/Syr game and taking the Under in the UAB/Con game.
NP Overs are now 3-10 on the season (a 77% Fade), Unders are 8-5 (a solid 61% play ON.)
Only one game qualifies this week, AF/San Jose St Under.
It’s not an automatic buy for me because Air Force was in this spot once already this season, facing UNLV.
And they combined for almost 100 points.
I’m taking a closer look at it and may add it in the forum on Saturday.
