Syracuse at SMU Play
Saturday 3:30 EST
“The scales of Justice may tip one way or the other but ultimately they balance out.”
(The great Charles Laughton as Sir Wilfred Brimley in “Witness for the Prosecution.”)
And so it is for sports betting, too.
All trends and streaks eventually level out.
Example:
In my Weekly Recap article I mentioned that I went 0-1 in the NFL last week but it could have been worse. Going into week four, one of my handicapping systems (WF2) had a record of 4-9. That’s a 69% Fade!
My plan for the week was to play a few of the six games that qualified and hope I could bank a few units before Reversion Toward the Mean started to come into play.
But I only bet one of the six, the Ravens.
Why?
Because, as also mentioned in my Weekly Recap article my timing belt had to be replaced. Plus I had a few other unexpected, additional expenses. And I believe that there is a flow to life. Simply put – when things are going well, everything goes well, but as the saying goes, “When it rains it pours.”
The unexpected expenses made me think it was a good time to cut back on the number of bets I make and not allow my bad luck streak to infiltrate my sports betting. The first WF2 play of the week would have been to Fade Seattle on Thursday night. And the Seahawks covered. Between the additional expenses I incurred and that Thursday night loss I changed my plan and didn’t use the other games. The record for the six games ended up at 5-1. Had I Faded the plays it would have been a massacre.
The record for WF2 going into last week was 4-9, a 69% Fade. The record this week is 9-10. Like Sir Wilfred said, “The scales of Justice may tip one way or the other but ultimately they balance out.”
And so it is for sports betting, too.
Experience – knowing it was a good day to decrease my bets – saved me from taking a few losses. ALWAYS listen to your gut.
And if you haven’t seen “Witness for the Prosecution”, put it at the top of your Must See list!
(And if anyone is wondering why the above recommendation for “Witness for the Prosecution” appeared at the bottom of my other college article from this week it’s because of an editing error on my part.)
But I digress. Let’s get back to business.
In my weekly College article I gave an update on the different handicapping models I use. Here are the numbers for my NFL models:
WF1 is 10-14; Hm 3-3, Rd 7-11
WF2 is 9-11; Hm 9-10, Rd 0-1
NO edges to exploit.
T1 is Overs 0-1, no games have qualified as an Under.
H/C (Hot/Cold Trend Reversal) 0-0 first play that qualifies this week (NE/Buf Un.)
In other words, “I got nothing!”
So what’s my NFL pick for this week? It’s what I just said, “Nothing.”
There’s no reason to force a bet at any point in a season.
And even more so with my current NFL record at 1-3.
If I spot a prop that I like I’ll post it in the PredictEm forum on Sunday. Until then, I’ll leave you with this: SMU is going to beat the crap out of Syracuse on Saturday.
In their two home games this season, SMU has put up 42 and 45 points. That’s an average of 43.5 PPG on offense. Syracuse’s defense is ranked at #112 in the country, giving up 30 PPG.
The Mustangs are coming home after a 24-35 Rd loss at TCU in their last game, putting them at just 2-2 for the season, and I expect they’re going to take it out on the Orange.
Plus there’s this – SMU is coming in off of a bye week. Last year the Mustangs had three games with an extra week’s rest.
After their first bye they won 66-42 at Hm against TCU. The second one saw them on the Rd beating Stanford 40-10. And in the third they were at Hm where they beat BC 38-25. That’s an average of 48 PPG with extra time to game plan and prep plays.
Syracuse lost their starting quarterback Steve Angeli for the season and in their first game without him they managed to put up just three points in a 38-3 loss to Duke last week.
All of this points to a double digit blowout for the Mustangs, but just in case I’m buying the hook for an extra 8 cents.
SMU -17, -118
