TCU at Houston – Prediction on the Total
Saturday, November 22, 4PM EST
One of my three models for picking totals, T1, says this game will stay Under the posted total.
T1 has a record of 43-45 overall.
No edge there.
But . . .
When it’s a Rd game, T1 has a record of 15-25.
That’s a 62% Fade.
Any of my spots that’s at 58% or better gets a second look, so let’s dig into some of the standard stats.
Ov/Un Records:
TCU 5-5
Hou 7-3
Combined 12-8, a 60% edge to the Over.
The T1 Fade says take the game Over.
All the standard stats point to an Over.
“But wait, there’s more!” (as Ron Popeil would say.)
Let’s break it down into the subcategory of Hm/Rd:
TCU 3-2 Over on the Rd
Hou 3-2 Over at Hm
Combined 6-4, a 60% edge to the Over.
Ov/Un record using the total on this week’s game (54′):
TCU 7-3
Hou 5-5
Combined 12-8, a 60% edge to the Over.
The T1 record of 15-25 is the overall record for all teams, it’s a league-wide stat.
I ran both teams through my database to see if they’ve been in this spot before, to look at the play from a Team Specific angle.
TCU has not been in this spot previously.
But Houston has.
Twice.
On 9/21, T1 said Houston at Ore St would stay Under.
More recently, two weeks ago on 11/1, T1 said West Virginia at Houston would stay Under.
Both games went Over the post total.
Team specific, Houston is 0-2 in this spot, which tells me I have a good read on them.
Other fun factors:
Houston has SCORED 30 or more points in two straight games; they’re in a good groove on offense.
And they’ve also GIVEN UP an average of 30 or more in their last two games.
Ya gotta love that if you’re looking at the Over.
But . . .
On the flip side of that coin, TCU has only scored a combined 30 points in the last two games. But that was against a tough Top 20 defense in BYU (giving up 19 PPG) and an Iowa State defense that gives up 23 PPG.
The Horned Toads (yes, I know it’s Frogs but I like Toads better) are coming off two poor offensive performances, but overall this season they average about 30 PPG.
Houston gives up an average of 25.
TCU gives up an average of 27 PPG.
I think I can get 30+ from the Cougars at Hm.
Based on those numbers it’s going to be tight, but if both teams just stick to their averages, points for and against, I can get the W here.
When to Buy Recommendation
This line is available anywhere from 54′ to 55′.
I have no feel for which way it’s going to go so I’m going to grab the 54′ today.
Recap: 2-1
Record: 18-18
Review
Got an easy W when Georgia crushed Texas.
I saw that one coming even without my stats and systems.
It came down to this – would we see the good Archie or the bad Archie.
The final score of 35-10 gave us the answer, the answer I expected.
Facing Texas, the overall number three defense in the FBS and the number one sack leader, Kirby Smart put in the right game plan – screen passes and short dumps over the middle on slants, getting the ball out of his QB’s hands quickly.
I lost the Ark/LSU game, same way I got screwed in C Mich/W Mich two weeks ago when a player slid to the ground to end the game rather than score a TD that would have covered for me.
Those two screwings have me anticipating (anticipating is a nice way of saying paranoid) a game where instead of taking a knee, a guy’s going to go for the personal glory and score the TD, pushing the total Over on a game where I had the Under.
Sometimes, the the Gambling Gods are wise-asses that way.
The NP Under spot with Marshall made my day, finishing 2-1. It got me back to .500 on my article picks, with a slight profit on the season thanks to my forum plays.
After another losing week at 1-2, the NP Over is now 4-12 on the season, a 75% Fade.
And the NP Under, Old Reliable, my favorite spot, went 1-0 and is now 10-5, 67%.
I have no NP spots, Ov or Un, on the midweek games, Tue/Wed/Thur/Fri.
I’ll ‘cap the Saturday games on Thursday morning, hoping to get a couple to choose from.
Be sure to check the PredictEm Forum for updates.
