Toledo Rockets (8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS)
College Football Week 12
Date/Time: Tuesday, November 17, 2015, 6:00 pm EST
Where: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, Ohio
TV: ESPN
by Badger, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TOL +6.5/BGSU -6.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
The Mid-American Conference (MAC) will give college football fans a potential preview of what could end up being the MAC Championship game in a few weeks, when the MAC West-leading Toledo Rockets travel to Doyt Perry Stadium to take on the MAC-East winner Bowling Green in Tuesdays feature MACtion game on ESPN2.
Toledo remained in a three-way tie atop the MAC West standings due in part to their, 28-23, victory over Central Michigan on the road in last Tuesdays MACtion, but theres no denying these final two weeks of the season IS the Rockets season. Starting with this Tuesdays game against the MAC East champion Falcons, the Rockets must win out to even get a sniff of the MAC West title.
The Rockets remain in a tie in the MAC West standings because Bowling Green handed Western Michigan their first conference loss of the season in a, 41-27, butt kicking last Wednesday in Kalamazoo. Senior QB Matt Johnson threw for three more scores, giving him 36 touchdowns on the season, and Travis Greene added three touchdowns on the ground as the Falcons took care of business easily against Western Michigan. With the MAC East title wrapped up and their season finale at 3-7 Ball State next week, the Falcons get to play the role of spoiler in Tuesdays game in their final game in front of the home fans at the Doyt in 2015.
Tuesdays feature MACtion game opened with Bowling Green as full touchdown 7-point favorites at home. While there were a few sportsbooks that briefly flirted with -6.5 in the opening hours of this point spread going live, by Monday afternoon all of the sportsbooks currently listing a number for this game have gone back up to a full 7-points in favor of the Falcons.
As of press time, there has not been an over/under total released for this game yet.
This Tuesdays game should be entertaining from the aspect that these two schools are the top two offenses in the MAC. As mentioned, Johnson is having a career-best season as the Falcons QB coming back for a fifth-year signal after tearing his knee up last year. With 36 TDs and just four interceptions, Johnson leads the country in efficiency too. With weapons all over, Toledos defense is going to have an extremely hard time stopping Johnson from picking them apart, especially since the Rockets secondary already has issue stopping anyone in the passing game allowing 258 yards a game in the air (102nd in FBS).
That means the Rockets and QB Phillip Ely will have to score early and often to try and stay with the Falcons on the scoreboard. Ely has struggled with his accuracy these last few weeks, although the Rockets offense in general has been plagued by inconsistency overall. The last few weeks have seen the Rockets race out to an early lead, only to hold on for dear life at the end as the offense and offensive play calling in the second half of games has gone real conservative.
The good news for Toledo is that historically speaking, the Rockets seem to have Bowling Greens number. Toledo has beaten the Falcons in five straight, including last years, 27-20, victory over them in Toledo. Not only is Toledo 5-0 SU going back to 2010 against the Falcons, but they are a strong 3-1-1 ATS in those five meetings as well.>
Traditionally its the home team that has enjoyed this series as well, since the home team is 12-3-1 ATS going back through the past 16 head-to-head meetings between these two schools. However, if there is a silver lining for Bowling Green fans its the fact that the Falcons are 6-2 ATS in Doyt Perry Stadium over the years.
The under could turn out to be the best value on the board for this game, once its finally released. With these two offenses its likely to open up in the upper 70s, but historically the under is 4-0 in the last four head-to-heads played in Bowling Green and the under is also 8-0 in the last eight meetings as well.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Toledo turned a lot of heads in September when they beat Arkansas, but I dont think theyve played very well since then. Meanwhile, Bowling Green has gotten better and better each week to the point where I now think they are the best team in the MAC this season and a team nobody from a big 5 conference would want to play in a bowl game in December. Take a look at the under once a total for this game is released, but otherwise I expect Bowling Green to cover this game minus the points.
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