RBD breaks down a late-night handicapping grind that uncovered a profitable bowl betting system focused on underdogs.
Troy/Jackson State
Betting on Bowl Dogs
Thomas Edison’s Herculean effort to invent the electric light took two years of trial and error.
A reporter once asked him, “How does it feel to have failed so many times?”
Edison responded, “I have not failed, I’ve found 10,000 ways that will not work.”
Handicapping is a lot like that.
You have an idea, a theory, so you put it to the test, you run the numbers.
And 99% of the time, you come up with nothing, a system/model/method that comes out to approximately 50/50, no value at all, nothing to bet ON, nothing to Fade AGAINST.
BUT . . .
Every once in a while, you hit gold.
I talk about it a lot, I’d go so far as to say I preach it – KEEP A DATABASE OF YOUR SYSTEMS AND PLAYS!!!
And I’m glad that I do.
I’ve already put in about ten hours of handicapping work into the Bowls this season, spread out over the last week.
I thought I was done.
I was wrong.
It was Monday, 10:00 p.m.
I was starting to crash when I had an idea.
I tried to put it off until my morning handicapping session, but the thought kept nagging at me.
So I got up and hit the books – my log books, my database, to research a possible statistical play ON Dogs in the Bowls.
I started with last year, the 2024/2025 Bowls.
I grabbed my green and red pens (green for a + stat, red for a -) and added numbers to my charts on every matchup last year.
I ran each game through the new, statistical scenario, and here’s what I found: 10 games qualified.
The record?
7-3, a 70% play.
My interest peaked.
Was it a blip, an anomaly?
Only one way to find out – I turned to my chart for the 2023/2024 Bowls.
I added the stats, ran the numbers.
Here’s what I found:
8-1, an 88% play.
Now it definitely has my attention.
I’ve already put in more than two hours of work, but I may be on to something, so instead of going back to bed it’s back to the charts.
Next up – 2022/2023.
And my effort was rewarded with a record of 11-2, 84%.
My eyes are tired of staring at stats and my wrist is getting cramped from writing, but like a pack of hounds closing in on the fox the adrenaline is kicking in, so I keep going.
I want one more year worth of data, 2021/2022.
And I get further confirmation, 6-3, 67%.
A more than four hour endeavor pays off with a four year record of 32-9, 78%.
And now the fun part – I apply it to 2025/2026.
Sixteen games qualify this year.
Now, for your consideration, I offer them here.
Jax St, Delaware, Missouri St
Memphis, Mia Fla, Washington St
Toledo, Hawaii, Central Michigan
New Mexico, East Carolina, Connecticut
Virginia, App St, Navy, W Forest.
Sixteen – that’s a lot of plays.
The previous high was thirteen games in 2022.
Will it turn out to be a Sweet 16?
I won’t know until the final scores are in.
The saying, “If it sounds too good to be true it probably is” comes to mind.
But does that apply to every situation?
Will the law of averages kick in, will the play start to level out?
The odds say it’s likely, after four years of success.
But then I’m reminded of another play, the NP Under (check the record for it in my college football recap article.)
Will 2025/2026 be another profitable season for Dogs in this spot?
I’m about to find out.
Beginning tonight.
I already missed out on the best line as the game opened at Troy -3.
Right now you can get it anywhere from Jax St +2 to pick ’em.
Who knows, by game time it might even become a Flip Flop Fav spot, with Jacksonville State laying a point or two.
In which case I like the game even more, based on recent results on bowl games where the team that opened as a Dog switched and became the Favorite.
It’s now 2:59 AM.
Time to go back to bed.
But not before buying my third Bowl game of the season.
My play: Jackson St +1′ (edited)
