RBD opens Bowl Season by rolling out one of his strongest system plays — a Seven Sigma matchup where Mississippi checks every statistical box against Tulane. The numbers, history, and his WF models all point to one side.
Monday, December 8
During the regular season I use three different handicapping models for picking Wrong Favorites (although one very rarely has a play), and three models for picking totals.
I run those same models for the Bowl season but also have six or seven other systems I track.
This year I’ll be focused on WF spots.
Here’s why, three-year records:
WF1: 40-19, 68%
WF2: 34-22, 60%
WF3: 21-8, 72%
I now have 18 years worth of data accumulated on the other handicapping models I use that are specific to the Bowl season. The best of these is when I have a game that rates with the better number in all seven different categories I chart for each matchup.
The record for this play is 9-5, 64%. Hopefully I’ll get one this year that qualifies.
Tuesday, December 9
I spent four hours working on my bowl handicapping yesterday. And I’m still not done.
But I’ll share what I have so far because the only game I bought has a line that’s moving against my buy, in case anyone wants to get in on it.
I have two games that qualify for my Seven Sigma model (Yes, I just made that name up; I have to call it something.)
I rate both sides of a game in seven categories.
For example, Average Rushing Yards Per Game.
When I bet on a team I expect them to be winning in the 4th quarter, and I want to know that they have a good running game that can close out the clock.
Conversely, I rate them on Defensive Passing Yards Per Game because I know the team that is behind is going to be passing and I want to be able to stop them.
In 18 years (approximately 700 Bowl games) only 14 have qualified for Bowl System Number Six — when a team has the better number in all seven categories.
The record for this play is 9-5, 64%.
This is the play I used last week with J. Madison, but that wasn’t a Bowl game, I was just experimenting to see if it worked in Championship Week. The Dukes came out flatter than pre-op Dylan Mulvaney (someone will get that crack, eh?) and I took a loss.
This Year’s Qualifiers
In this year’s Bowls I have two spots:
Tulane vs Mississippi
TCU vs USC
The Rebels and Trojans qualify with a better number in all seven categories.
The Rebel game comes first, Saturday, December 20.
The Trojans play on Tuesday, December 30, so I have a chance to possibly bank a unit and decide if I want to play the second spot or not.
Yes, there’s an unknown factor in this game as Ole Miss has a new head coach.
Yes, I would have preferred Kiffin to still be at the helm, especially since I have to lay better than two TD’s on the spread.
No, I’m not happy that it’s defensive coordinator Pete Golding taking over instead of offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss. I’m going to need points. Weiss will be coaching the Rebels until the end of this season before joining Kiffin. Hopefully Golding will give him free rein.
The game opened at 16½ and that’s what I bought yesterday, but the common number as you’re reading this is 17, so that’s what I’ll use here.
Extra Bowl Insights
That’s my only bet for right now, until I finish the rest of my work. Here are some other Fun Facts to help you navigate your way through your Battle with the Books in the Bowls.
When a team opens as the Dog but becomes the Fav — is the money always right?
Going into the 2024 Bowls I had the newly crowned Fav hitting better than 70% over the last few seasons.
Last year they went 4-3, not as high a W percentage as it has been recently but still a profitable play.
And last year there were two games where a Favorite became the Dog and then became the Favorite again. The record was 1-1.
Here’s a common Bowl system (not one of mine):
Bet AGAINST any team that enters the bowl game off of two SU losses in the regular season.
It was 3-1 in 2023 and 5-3 last year, making the two-year total 8-4, 67%.
Yes, I could list the teams that qualify this year but then you wouldn’t have the fun of handicapping for yourself, would you?
There are people who would choose to win the lottery for a million bucks rather than build a business that earns them a million bucks.
I write for the “build a business” types, who don’t want everything handed to them.
My First Bowl Buy
Mississippi -17
Good Luck with your Bowl Plays . . .
