Saturday, November 1, at 12:00 p.m. EST
An “NP Under” Play
Here’s my latest entry into the “Getting Old Sucks” category.
I was in the driver’s seat of my car. I leaned over to get something off of the passenger seat, the right side of my chest pressing into the glove box between the seats.
Suddenly, a sharp pain. I cracked a rib.
It reminded me of when I reached to get a box of Raisin Bran off the top shelf and I pulled a muscle.
The simplest tasks in life have now become dangerous.
What does any of that have to do with sports betting?
Not a damn thing — complaining about stuff no one cares about is just ANOTHER hazard of getting old.
Deal with it. I have to.
But I digress.
Now, back to our regularly scheduled program.
Regarding the NP Under
For updates on some of the data for this play please check out my previous article, dated 10/30.
For more information, such as the origin of the play, check out my article (link provided).
The NP Under spot has been profitable for five years, but this year it’s been tough sledding.
Three weeks ago it had a losing record of 3-4.
Two weeks ago it went 3-1 (no plays last week) and is now back on the right side of the ledger at 6-5.
There are two games that qualify on Saturday.
One is at 12:00 p.m. EST, the other game is at 4:00 p.m.
This gives me an opportunity to do an “IF” bet, where I buy the early game and wait to see what the results are before making a decision on the later game.
If the first game wins, I can either bank the profit and call it a day, or I can let it ride on the second game.
If it loses, I have the option of trying to recoup the unit on the late game, or not betting it at all.
The “IF” bet is a particularly advantageous spot to be in when you have two games that qualify and like the early game better than the late game.
Like I do on Saturday.
Game One
Let’s look at the UAB Dragons (yes, I know that’s not what they’re called, but their icon/symbol is a dragon and The Dragons is a much cooler name than The Blazers, which is too close to being called The Flamers, which is a little too, umm . . . never mind.)
Anyway, the UAB Whatevers are 5-2 to the Over in their seven games.
All three of their road games have gone Over.
None of that makes a good case for playing the Under but then there’s this — only three of their seven games have gone Over the number the books have set for this one, 63½.
It’s the highest total the books have hung on UAB all season long, as they try to introduce a little parity into their Ov/Un record.
On the other side of the ball we have the Yukon Huskies.
“Yukon” is what happens when you speak your article into the mic rather than type out U-C-O-N-N.
Yes, I could have gone back and edited/corrected it but “Yukon” and “Huskies” seems fitting, in a “Call of the Wild” kind of way.
But I digress. Again.
Anyway…
Connecticut is 6-2 to the Over.
And they’re 3-0 to the Over at home.
Like UAB, the Connecticut numbers don’t bring much good news for bettors playing the Under.
But again, there is this — only three of their games have gone over the number in this contest, and one of those ended regulation as an Under but OT pushed it Over.
Dragon quarterback Jalen Kitna (son of former NFL’er Jon Kitna) is questionable/leaning likely to not play. Normally a starting quarterback being out is a plus for someone looking to play the Under, because backup quarterbacks usually see game planning that leans a little more toward the running game than normal.
But last week, in his first game at QB, backup Ryder Button threw three touchdowns.
This could be trouble for a Husky team that’s weak against the pass.
And a bettor who’s trying to cash a ticket on the Under.
Game Two
Mississippi State is 3-5 to the Over, including 0-3 on the road.
Only two of their three games have gone over the total in this one, 67½.
Arkansas is 6-2 to the Over, including 4-1 at home.
At 67½, the books have put a number on this one that is higher than any other Arkansas game this season.
But four of their games have gone over 67½ so the books may not have raised the number high enough.
Despite all the trends pointing to an Over in the early game, and two suspect defenses, I’ll stick with my NP Under model based on its history.
Thoughts on When to Buy
The total opened at 64 and is down to 63½.
I bought it this morning before it goes any lower.
After the early game ends, I’ll post an update in the PredictEm Forum on the second game, whether I buy it or not.
For now, my play is . . .
UAB/U Conn Under 63½
Good luck with your play this week.
