Mountain West Championship: UNLV vs. Boise State ATS Pick & Historical Hump

UNLV Rebels (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (8-4 SU, 6-4-2 ATS)
Mountain West Conference Championship
Date/Time: Friday, December 5, 2025 at 8PM EST
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
TV: Fox

The UNLV Rebels come to Albertsons Stadium to take on the Boise State Broncos for the Mountain West Conference Championship. Suffice to say, there were a lot of moving pieces and different metrics that led to this in a messy Mountain West where four teams finished with a 6-2 conference mark. In the end, it’s UNLV coming to face Boise State for all the marbles. A narrow 25-24 win over Utah State on Saturday allowed Boise to punch their ticket by the narrowest of margins. UNLV, meanwhile, closed the season strongly by winning its fourth in a row with a win over New Mexico on Saturday, 42-17. Who can deliver on Friday night in Boise?

Food for Thought

For all of Boise’s failings in what has been an underwhelming season on some levels, they are still in familiar territory—playing a big game on their home field. And with UNLV coming out to Boise as December gets rolling, the Rebels might be seeing some weather for the first time this season in a really big spot. It’s also hard not to have noticed there have been times where a UNLV squad that is feeling pretty good about themselves got served a giant reality-check in the form of a beating from the real kings of the Mountain West.

For years, a down program, UNLV has really elevated its profile in the last several years, with this being their third straight conference title game appearance. And each time when they’re rolling and face the Broncos, they fall pretty hard. The Broncos beat a high-flying UNLV last regular season when the Rebels were really rolling, before a two-touchdown win in the title game. And again this regular season, a 6-0 UNLV team came into this very stadium in mid-October and fell hard, 56-31. Granted, they don’t play annually, but UNLV has not tasted victory over the Broncos since the Jimmy Carter administration. And no matter the respective states of each team, this is a hurdle UNLV has not been able to jump.

More Bad News for UNLV?

The Rebels were hoping maybe to get an assist from the injury big, with Boise quarterback Maddux Madsen missing the past month. They were hoping to see Max Cutforth in there, but Boise head coach Spencer Danielson said Madsen is a go this week in the title game at home. Cutforth would have been easier than the established starter and the same guy who threw four TDs in a 56-point outburst against this same defense in October. And they also need to concern themselves with Boise back Dylan Riley, who went for over 200 yards in the first game. Last season, it was Jeanty, but regardless, it seems like Boise backs really go off in this spot.

Still, you can’t rule out UNLV. Dan Mullen came in and really kept this rising program on a good trajectory with a 10-win season this year. With over 3000 yards passing, Anthony Colandrea flashed a big arm all season, also using his legs to good effect with 8 TD runs and 556 yards on the ground. They have some balance with a run game where Jai’Den Thomas is the lead back, but they can see Jaylon Glover explode from time to time, as he did in their first game this season against Boise.

Can UNLV’s Defense Rise to the Occasion?

We see UNLV has the offensive wherewithal on paper to compete with Boise and could have done better earlier this year if given a little assist from the other side of the ball. The bad news for them is that they’re going against that same Boise offense that squashed them before and on the same field, to boot. That game occurred during a truly poor period for this Vegas “D” that gave up 144 combined points in the three-week stretch that included the hammering by Boise. We see some improvement, particularly during this latest 4-game win streak, where UNLV has allowed a combined 63 points in that span. During that period, we are seeing some positive signs, including a pass-rush that has kicked it up a notch or two, big-play capability from all facets of this unit, and some timely stops that really come in handy in a pinch.

As is the case with many points of this analysis, there’s a counterpoint that paints Boise in a good light. And not that their defense is invulnerable. After all, UNLV’s offense wasn’t the issue in their first game, and if anything, their “D” has closed the season looking better than Boise’s. Their entire trajectory is more suited for this spot. They’ve had less rocky moments and not as recently as Boise. The question becomes whether these factors can trump Boise seeming to have their number, getting this at home, and it being a context where they typically thrive, and UNLV does not.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

It’s just that the last several seasons have seen UNLV at their best-ever and still haven’t been able to get over this hump. Now you get this on Boise’s field. You get a conference title game. You get their starting QB back in the fold. And you still have multiple Boise weapons who can run roughshod over a defense that, while improved over the season, hasn’t shown they’re ready for primetime. Taking Boise here, one can almost get the sneaking suspicion that we’re going to the well one too many times or that maybe UNLV is catching Boise in a diminished enough state to finally turn the tables. I still think Boise serves them up another reality sandwich this week in the title game. I’m taking the Broncos.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Boise State Broncos minus 4 points.