UNLV at San Houston Play
Friday August 29 at 4:30 EST
My first plays were yesterday but whether my 2025 Battle with the Books will be a successful campaign or not really begins tonight, with my first NP Under spot.
Here are the numbers, so you don’t have to look them up in my last article:
- 2020: 28-4, 87%
- 2021: 34-21, 63%
- 2022: 34-32, 51%
- 2023: 21-17, 55%
- 2024: 23-16, 63%
- Combined total: 140-87, 61%
That’s a data sample of more than 220 games, over 5 years, and a 61% winning edge.
And what do I always say – anything at 58% or higher is good enough to get my money.
It’s been profitable in four of five years.
The only year it missed was 2022 when it lost a little bit of juice at 34-32.
I had three plays that qualified early in the week. They’re listed in my last column. But I update and check the numbers every day and I have an add-on game, a spot that didn’t qualify earlier but now does due to line moves.
As stated previously, based on past success (see the 5-year record above) I’m going to play every NP Under spot that qualifies this year.
So my first official NP Under will be tonight, on UNLV/Sam Houston Under.
When to Buy Recommendation:
This one opened at 58′ and is already up to 61′, so it looks like bettors expect the game to be a high scoring affair. That’s okay, I love going against public opinion.
The line climb is understandable since UNLV (1-0) combined with Idaho State for 69 points in their season opener last week and Sam Houston (0-1) and Western Kentucky combined for 65 points.
With a 3-point middle available for anyone who bought the opener at 58′, I expect there will be a buyback later today, but as long as the line is still going higher I’m going to wait to buy this one.
The Rebels defense looked porous last week, giving up 31 points to Division II Idaho State, and tonight they’re facing a Sam Houston team that plays at one of the fastest tempos in the league.
I’m hoping Joe Public buys the Over throughout the morning before the buyback comes later in the day.
Waiting and watching the number.
Will update in the forum later in the day.
Recap: 1-3
Record: 1-3
Review: It was a rough start to my college football season but it could have been much worse.
I had four plays.
Rutgers and Wisconsin failed to cover, with the Badgers missing by a hook (what kind of season is it going to be when MAC teams are competitive with Big Ten teams??!!)
I played the UCF game Over because early in the week it qualified as an NP spot. But the total moved enough so that it no longer qualified (as noted in the PredictEm Forum before kickoff.)
Had I waited until later in the week I wouldn’t have played it, but it counts on my bankroll and my record, but not the record for NP spots.
In my fourth play, Wyoming saved me from taking an 0-fer, covering the -7′ against the Zips. (edited)
