Washington at Washington State
College Football System Play
Saturday, September 20, 4:30 EST
At the start of each season, for each sport, I give my record for the different handicapping systems I use from the previous season.
And I always include the caveat, “Remember – what worked one season may not work the next.”
Here’s an example.
Last year, I had a college football situational play for the first 5 weeks that was 8-19, a 67% Fade.
This year that same play is 13-6 a 68% play ON.
That’s a complete reversal!
The play is a subcategory of one of my models for picking Wrong Favorites, WF2, based on a point spread differential of 20 or more between my number and the Books.
This is the same play I used for my forum picks in week 1 and ended up starting the year with a three-unit deficit because I faded it based on last year’s results.
The play went 8-5 in week 1.
It went 4-1 in week 2.
It was 1-0 last week.
Now we’re in week four, and I have five games that qualify. The problem is, do I jump on it and hope it continues, or stay off because of reversion toward the mean?
I usually avoid jumping on trends, preferring trying to anticipate them and getting on early.
But last year’s numbers continued to be profitable for five weeks as a Fade, so I’m going to play a couple of these spots in week four this year and hope the trend holds.
While reviewing my database looking for a higher W percentage within my plays I noticed that when I up the qualifying point spread differential from 20 to 30 the record is 7-2, 77%.
And I have one game that fits this week, Washington State at Washington.
WF2 says Washington State should be the Favorite, and the point spread differential is greater than 30.
The books opened the Huskies as 19 point Rd Favs and they’ve gone up to 20.
That’s a lot of points for a rivalry game, and this one, the Apple Cup, dates all the way back to the year 1900!
But let’s not go back that far; let’s look at some recent history.
The numbers start out ugly.
Washington is 8-2 SU in the last 10.
Okay, but maybe the Cougars have covered the spread in some of those 10 games. Let’s look.
Nope. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS.
But how many of those seven Huskie wins have been by more than this week’s spread of 20 points?
In the last 10 games, Washington State would have covered a 20-point spread in six of 10 games, good for 60%.
Okay, the numbers look a little better now.
And Washington State has also covered three straight, and four of the last five, so while they’re still losing SU, we are seeing more competitive Cougars as of late.
And now seems like a good spot for my Washington story. I was spending a month in Bellingham, up at the border between the US and Canada.
Nice town, good people.
I found a secluded lake at the base of a mountain that had a jogging trail around it that I would visit each day for my morning run.
I noticed that all the other people jogging or walking the trails carried huge walking sticks, like Moses’s staff. So I asked an old guy, “I noticed everyone carries big sticks with them. Are there any critters around here I need to be aware of?”
And he said, “Do you know the nickname of our local team, Washington State?”
I said, “Sure, I’m a football fan, they’re the Cougars.”
And he said, “Well, there’s a reason for that, son,” and he smiled and walked away.
Apparently, according to one of the other people I talked to, the big cats come down from the mountain to drink at the lake. But only at night, he said, so mornings are safe.
I picked out a different jogging spot anyway, just in case there was a cougar that couldn’t tell time and didn’t know morning from night.
As a general rule in life, I try to avoid places where there are things that want to eat me.
But I digress.
When to Buy Recommendation
Since the line is moving in my favor, I’m going to wait to buy this one and hope I can get to + three TD’s because I’m going to need every one of them. Washington State is just not a very good team.
In week one, they managed a weak win over a division two team, Idaho, 13-10.
And it took a last-second field goal to get that victory.
FBS teams schedule FCS opponents in week one for the distinct purpose of setting up a blowout win to get the season started with some confidence.
13-10 does not instill any confidence.
In week two, Washington State showed improvement, beating San Diego State 36-13.
In week three, they reverted back to form, getting their butts kicked by 39 points in a 49-10 loss to North Texas.
Suddenly, +20 doesn’t look so good anymore.
And now the Washington Huskies come to town.
The 2-0 undefeated Washington Huskies.
The “Fresh off a 60 point crushing win over UC Davis” Huskies (THAT’S how you’re supposed to treat an FCS team!)
The “well-rested off-a-bye-week giving them an extra week to prepare” Washington Huskies.
Not one of my favorite bets I’ll make this season, but I’ll ride with my handicapping models and hope that the Huskies get caught in a bit of a look-ahead spot.
You can’t blame them if they do, with #1 Ohio State up next on their schedule.
Recap: 1-0
Record: 6-5
Review: Scored a win with Louisiana Tech in the Asterisk Spot.
