Vanderbilt (9-2) at Tennessee (8-3)
“To the last I grapple with thee. From hell’s heart I stab at thee; for Hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee.”
(No, Star Trek geeks, the quote above is not from Kahn to Kirk. It’s Ahab, to his Great White Whale, in Melville’s classic Moby Dick.)
You know how I occasionally post reminders that “Revenge is not a tool on the handicapper’s belt” and how you shouldn’t bet AGAINST a team just because you bet ON them and they screwed you and you lost money?
Well, that’s sound advice.
Like a pitcher who gives up a home run, or a quarterback who throws an interception, you just have to put it out of your mind, put it behind you. You have to take emotion out of your handicapping.
That being said . . .
From a recap article earlier this season:
“Vanderbilt had the spread covered when they pulled their starters at the end of the 4th quarter, went to the Prevent Defense, and I got backdoored with 58 seconds left in the game.”
That was written on September 27th.
Today is November 25th, two months later.
They say elephants never forget.
I don’t know about that (I’ve never quizzed one) but I do KNOW Sicilians never forget, so despite the sage advice about not seeking revenge noted above, guess who I’m betting against this week.
There was a time earlier this season when Vandy was the talk of the town in the SEC.
They reeled off five straight wins to start the season. They lost to ‘Bama then won two more and were sitting at seven and one.
Then came the loss to Texas.
They’re now at 9-2.
Realistically still have a shot at making the playoffs.
But realistically ain’t reality, and they have as much chance of getting into the playoffs as the 2-10 NY Giants have of going Over their Regular Season Wins total of 5′.
(Counting your chickens before they’re hatched is considered bad form in sports betting, I should go back and delete that line about the Giants so I don’t jinx my bet.)
With three losses, Tennessee has no chance at the playoffs, not even a “false hope” chance like the Commodores have. What they do have for incentive is the role of the spoiler — they can knock one of their rivals out of the playoff picture.
And for a little extra added incentive, there’s this:
During the preseason, Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia said this about the Vols:
“Vanderbilt is going to run the state of Tennessee after this year. We can beat the Tennessee Vols literally any given Saturday.”
And just in case anyone thought he was ambiguous with his point, he added, “They think they’re going to destroy us? F*ck every single one of them dudes.”
Tennessee Coach Josh Heupel and his team have dismissed the comments, choosing to stay focused on the task at hand — beating this week’s opponent. But there’s no way those comments won’t be front and center on the Vol’s mind when they take the field this Saturday.
That makes this a Double Revenge spot — revenge for the Vols for the comments Pavia made, and revenge for me for when the Commodores laid down against Utah State earlier this season and cost me a unit.
According to my personal handicapping models, Tennessee has a 67% chance of covering the spread in this game.
WF1 says Vanderbilt should be the Favorite.
WF1 is 13-26 on Rd teams.
Vandy has been chosen as the “correct Fav” in this model three times this season.
They’re 1-2 ATS.
I’ve been patient, like a cheetah in the high grass looking over a herd of gazelle, carefully choosing the right time to strike at Vandy.
“All good things to those who wait.”
(And hopefully I don’t end up like Captain Ahab.)
When to Buy Recommendation
The Vols opened at -2′.
They’re still available at that number, but with added juice. You can get them at -3 with reduced juice.
My play:
Ten -3, -101
Recap
0-1
Record
18-19
Review
The Houston game fell far short of going Over. This puts me back at one game under .500, with the Mississippi Regular Season Wins money to be added at the end of this week.
My college football regular season has been like a hamster in his wheel — working hard running and not getting anywhere.
But I’m in position to hit my top two goals:
1. Don’t Lose Money
2. Finish with a Profit — ANY profit.
I’ll have additional plays in The Forum.
See you there.
