Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Washington State vs Utah State Betting Preview
The market respect for Utah State’s 10-2 ATS record is colliding with a depleted roster in Boise. While the Aggies have covered consistently, the loss of their top receiver and Washington State’s elite red zone efficiency (91.18%) create a conflicting profile. Rich Crew analyzes why the efficiency metrics and a historic “Under” streak suggest the point spread doesn’t tell the whole story.
Market Read
This number tells you exactly how the market feels about Utah State — respected, but not trusted. The opener at Utah State -4 didn’t last. We’re now sitting at -3, with a total hovering in the low 52 range. That’s a textbook bowl setup: short spread, conservative total, and uncertainty baked into both sides.
BetOnline showing 51.5 while Bodog holds 52 matters less than why the total drifted down from 52.5 in the first place. Utah State averages over 30 points per game, yet the market continues to shade Under. That’s bowl season math — opt-outs, conservative scripts, and fewer explosive plays. Books didn’t move this number by accident.
Utah State’s 10-2 ATS record jumps off the page, but this is their fourth straight game against bowl-eligible competition. Washington State has quietly covered seven of their last ten while averaging just 22.4 points per game. In a neutral-site bowl, short fields and turnovers decide everything. That’s the real swing factor here.
Game Dashboard
| Matchup | Washington State vs Utah State |
|---|---|
| Date/Time | Monday, December 22, 2025 – 2:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Albertsons Stadium (Boise, ID) |
| Spread | Utah State -3 (BetOnline/Bodog) |
| Total | 51.5 / 52 (BetOnline/Bodog) |
| Moneyline | WSU +155 / USU -180 |
Washington State Profile
The Cougars’ offense is the obvious concern. They average 22.4 PPG (94th nationally) while allowing 30.2 PPG, resulting in a -7.8 point differential. Efficiency confirms it: 4.9 yards per play (105th) and 14.61 yards per point. They don’t create offense easily.
Where Washington State survives is situational football. They convert 91.18% of red-zone trips (20th) and rank top-10 nationally on fourth down. When they do reach scoring position, they usually finish. The problem is getting there. QB Zevi Eckhaus averages just 6.5 yards per attempt and throws interceptions on 3.65% of attempts — that’s a losing profile over a full game.
The run game isn’t much help at 3.8 YPC, but the defensive improvement late in the season is real. They held Oregon State to eight points and Louisiana Tech to three in their final home games. The Under has now cashed in eight straight WSU games, and that’s not noise.
Turnovers remain the concern. Washington State sits at -0.8 per game, but they also generate takeaways when opponents get sloppy. Bowl games tend to expose which teams stay disciplined and which don’t.
Utah State Profile
On paper, Utah State looks like the better team. They score 30.3 PPG, allow just 21.1, and post a +9.2 differential. Their efficiency metrics back it up — 5.8 yards per play and 13.3 yards per point. QB Bryson Barnes protects the football as well as anyone in the country, throwing interceptions on less than 1% of attempts.
The dual-threat element matters. Barnes leads the team in rushing, and the Aggies average 4.6 YPC as a unit. That normally creates matchup problems. The issue here is what’s missing.
Top receiver Braden Pegan (60 catches, 926 yards) is out after entering the portal. That’s not a small loss — that’s the explosive element of the offense. The next man up is true freshman Ty Olsen, who has exactly one career catch. That’s not narrative. That’s the depth chart.
Utah State’s defense is also vulnerable on the ground, allowing 4.7 YPC. And while the Aggies are 10-2 ATS, they went 1-6 straight up against bowl-eligible teams. That matters when stepping up in class.
Head-to-Head Comparison
| Category | Washington State | Utah State | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run Offense (YPC) | 3.8 | 4.6 | Utah State |
| Run Defense (YPC) | 3.9 | 4.7 | Washington State |
| Pass Offense (YPA) | 6.5 | 7.8 | Utah State |
| Pass Defense (YPA) | 6.7 | 7.1 | Washington State |
| Turnover Margin | -0.8 | +0.5 | Utah State |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 37.67% | 28.97% | Washington State |
The leverage point is Utah State’s passing game without Pegan against a Washington State secondary allowing just 6.7 YPA. If Barnes is forced into third-and-long situations, Utah State’s sub-30% conversion rate becomes a real issue.
Matchup Breakdown
This game is about sustainability. Utah State prefers to control tempo and avoid mistakes. Washington State is comfortable shortening the game and living in the red zone when chances arise.
Neither offensive line dominates. Utah State allowed 39 sacks this season, while Washington State doesn’t generate consistent pressure. This becomes less about pass rush and more about protection breakdowns and conservative play-calling.
With both teams trending Under and neither pushing tempo, this profiles as a 65–70 play game. That caps upside on both sides.
Advanced Betting Metrics & Projection
Efficiency and pace project this game into the 48–52 point range. Utah State profiles for roughly 24–27 points without their top receiver. Washington State lands closer to 20–23 if they avoid turnovers.
That math aligns with the market’s quiet move toward the Under and explains why the spread never pushed past a field goal.
Rich’s Recommendation
Primary Play: Under 52 (playable to 51)
This is a numbers play, not a bowl narrative. Both teams have trended Under consistently, Washington State has cashed eight straight Unders, and Utah State loses its primary explosive threat. That changes the scoring ceiling — full stop.
Secondary Lean: Washington State +3
The Cougars profile as a live underdog against an Aggies team whose ATS record was built against weaker competition. Portal losses matter more in college bowls than the market often prices.
Risk Notes: Short fields and defensive scores are the only real threats to the Under. If Utah State wins the turnover battle decisively, they can still separate.
Bottom Line: The market is paying too much for Utah State’s ATS record and not enough attention to what they’ve lost offensively. The value sits with fewer points.
