West Virginia Mountaineers (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) at Cincinnati Bearcats (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)
When: Noon ET, Saturday, November 9th
Where: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
TV: FS1
Betting Odds
WVU +5 / Cin −5
Moneyline: West Va +165 / Bears −200
Over/Under: 56.5
It’s essentially a Big 12 elimination game when Cincinnati hosts West Virginia on Saturday afternoon at Nippert Stadium. Both teams sit at 3-2 in conference play, just one game out of second place in the Big 12. Since the second-place team earns a spot in the upcoming Big 12 championship game, a win keeps championship hopes alive for either team, while a loss likely signals the end of those aspirations.
The Line
The CFB Week 11 betting market opened with Cincinnati as a −3.5 favorite over West Virginia, with an O/U around 57. Early betting action moved the Bearcats to −5. According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings, the line for this game should be around 5.5 points.
West Virginia Betting Preview
The Mountaineers snapped a two-game losing streak with a 31-26 win at Arizona two weeks ago, followed by a bye week. Playing as 5-point underdogs in Tucson, WVU utilized a touchdown off a fake field goal to jump to an early 10-0 lead and later expanded the margin to 31-13 before securing the win. Backup QB Nicco Marchiol, filling in for injured starter Garrett Greene, delivered a strong performance, completing 18 of 22 passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 39 rushing yards.
Cincinnati Betting Preview
The Bearcats, on the other hand, missed an opportunity to extend a winning streak last time out, falling 34-23 at Colorado two weeks ago. Like WVU, Cincinnati had a bye last week. Despite being 6-point underdogs, Cincinnati played Colorado evenly until just before halftime but then conceded 17 unanswered points. The Bearcats rallied late but ultimately fell short. With a 5-3 overall record, Cincinnati requires just one more win to secure bowl eligibility and reach their season win total of 5.5. At 3-2 in the conference, they remain a contender for a spot in the Big 12 championship game.
By the Numbers
West Virginia is averaging 408 yards per game this season, split evenly with 204 yards through the air and 204 on the ground. Defensively, the Mountaineers allow 383 yards per game, including just 122 rushing yards, despite playing the 15th-toughest schedule according to Sagarin.
Cincinnati averages 439 yards per game, including 172 rushing yards, while allowing 403 yards defensively. The Bearcats have faced the 52nd-ranked strength of schedule per Sagarin’s ratings.
Free College Football Pick
Despite the potential absence of their starting quarterback, West Virginia should be able to rely on its strong rushing attack and backup QB Nicco Marchiol. We believe the oddsmakers may be overestimating the impact of West Virginia’s QB situation, and the Mountaineers’ defense holds an edge over Cincinnati. We like West Virginia to win outright on the money line.
Zank’s Pick: West Virginia to win outright on the money line (+165).
