xHeroOfTheDayx WC 2010 --- Road To Big $$$

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Germany vs. Ghana

--------------------------

Germany will completely be ignoring the result of the Serbia-Australia game, as they will be gunning for the 3 points, 100%. (Australia is never going to be up on Serbia anyways)

Ghana has simply gotten lucky thus far in their campaign. 2 goals (both on PK's), has been enough for them to net 4 points.

If Klose doesn't get sent off vs. Serbia, Germany wins that game easily. Thus still retaining their high praise gained off their first game. That wasn't due to a German collapse, but simply a strict referee. So their current position is the least of my worries.

Germany is taller, faster, stronger, more experienced, have the pedigree, has more class, ect. I can go on, and on.. but it's useless. The only reason the ML is only -250 now, is that Ghana is playing for their life as well.

I would not bet against Germany vs. ANY side. There are always those bets where you know the result before the match, don't bet, and then kick yourself for not playing the obvious. I'm not going to short myself on this one. I know what is going to happen, and am putting the max on it.

Germany will be playing high tempo like always. After Germany nets the first one, Ghana will be a deer in headlights. Not knowing what to do, except try to come up with an attack of their own. In doing so, that opens the game up even more.

Germany should be up by half, and could/should potentially make it a rout. Ghana is amazingly sitting on top of the group, and obviously can't be confident in themselves. It's a flukey ass 4 points, they'll be looking to get this game over as quick as possible. Men amongst boys today in my opinion. But Germany is staying humble, and focused.

Prediction: Germany 4-0 Ghana

--That's if the game opens up like I expect. Nonetheless, a Ghana goal would be a miracle in my opinion. Whether they open the game up and look for that goal when they are trailing is the million dollar question. Their a team known for beating themselves defending all the way down to the 90th minute.

[PrimeTime]

Agree with you 100%. However, in the interest of full disclosure, I am also a huge Germany backer.

I see them making a statement with this match. They are clearly superior to Ghana in both tactics and fitness. Ghana essentially stole their first match from Serbia with that fluke handball, and Serbia was clearly the better squad. Same thing with Australia, Ghana does not deserve to be sitting atop this group.

I am on Germany moneyline (-250), risking 2.2 Units to Win .88 Units. Not playing as large here because my account is rather depleted after the first two weeks of the tournament. :bang:

Hero, been following a lot of your picks and I was wondering....do you plan on continuing to post after the World Cup? You are a great capper and I'd love to keep bouncing ideas around when the Premiership and other fall leagues get rolling....thanks and keep up the great work!

GO GERMANY!!!! :beerbang:

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Agree with you 100%. However, in the interest of full disclosure, I am also a huge Germany backer.

I see them making a statement with this match. They are clearly superior to Ghana in both tactics and fitness. Ghana essentially stole their first match from Serbia with that fluke handball, and Serbia was clearly the better squad. Same thing with Australia, Ghana does not deserve to be sitting atop this group.

I am on Germany moneyline (-250), risking 2.2 Units to Win .88 Units. Not playing as large here because my account is rather depleted after the first two weeks of the tournament. :bang:

Hero, been following a lot of your picks and I was wondering....do you plan on continuing to post after the World Cup? You are a great capper and I'd love to keep bouncing ideas around when the Premiership and other fall leagues get rolling....thanks and keep up the great work!

GO GERMANY!!!! :beerbang:

:thumbs:

Yeah, i'll most definitely continue to post after the World Cup now that this forum has a pulse. The only reason i'm so sporadic with me threads, is that i'm usually talking to myself for a few months. :laughing:

Starting line-ups have been released from both sides. Some notables:

-Cacau WILL start over Gomez (expected)
-Muntari is NOT in the starting line-up for Ghana

Muntari is Ghana's key player, and Rajevac is sitting him... as Ghana has a France type situation on there hands. The move could be fatal, as the game could be out of reach by the time Muntari comes off the bench.

I'm trying to be as open-minded about this as I can. But I cannot find a single positive thing that Ghana has going for them. I suppose the crowd, but rest assured Germany will be well represented. I don't care if this match was played in Ghana, i'd still be all over Germany.

The -250 makes great sense though. Essentially, you are getting about -600 value in my opinion. 4 pts vs. 3 pts. Germany coming off a loss. I don't care WHO Germany would be playing, the books couldn't justify giving them more than -250. So this is actually a massive value play as well in my opinion.

I'm dissecting this too much though. Let's get on with the game, and see how it unfolds. :victory:

[TheShank]

Thanks for the writeup.

Just unloaded the rest of my account on a Germany and Argentina (over Mexico) parlay...Biggest bet I have ever made in my life and I agree with all your points Hero. I just hope Germany gets the first one early so the floodgates open. Let's go Germanyyyyyy
:victory:

Another positive angle going for Germany is Boateng's intentional injury on Ballack. I think Germany will be even more determined to get revenge and nothing better then to knock the out of the tourney. (Assuming Serbia wins which I think they will)

[PrimeTime]

Sounds great Hero, I look forward to throwing around some ideas with you. :beerbang:

I'm also glad this forum has a bit of a pulse and that I found it early on in the World Cup. It's hard to find a level-headed forum where people can exchange their sports gambling analysis and keep the tone positive, I'm really enjoying this thread. I don't even bother posting on Covers and some other forums anymore, just too much nonsense.

As far as today's match, I do have a couple of worries. In a straight matchup, Germany is clearly superior to Ghana. But lets not forget this match is being played on the continent of Africa, and we may see the refs give a slight advantage to Ghana. I am hoping that Germany comes out and just overwhelms them and the referees will be a non-issue. If the match is at all close (within 1 goal or a draw) I could see the referees pushing for a Ghana draw. Nothing we can control though.

Also, and this is far too speculative to even consider in capping this match, but Group C is now finalized with USA in the #1 spot and England in the #2 spot. If Germany takes the 3 points from Ghana and wins Group D, they will be in line for a potentially monumental match-up with England in the first match of the round of 16. If Serbia is losing to Australia, could they sandbag this match and draw, hoping to earn the #2 spot in the Group and face a potentially much easier match in the USA? And probably an easier road to the finals, facing Uruguay/South Korea next and avoiding a match-up with Argentina? That's waaaaaay too speculative to even consider. The safest strategy for Germany is to just come out and kick some serious ass.

GL ALL LETS GO GERMANY! :beerbang:

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Sounds great Hero, I look forward to throwing around some ideas with you. :beerbang:

I'm also glad this forum has a bit of a pulse and that I found it early on in the World Cup. It's hard to find a level-headed forum where people can exchange their sports gambling analysis and keep the tone positive, I'm really enjoying this thread. I don't even bother posting on Covers and some other forums anymore, just too much nonsense.

As far as today's match, I do have a couple of worries. In a straight matchup, Germany is clearly superior to Ghana. But lets not forget this match is being played on the continent of Africa, and we may see the refs give a slight advantage to Ghana. I am hoping that Germany comes out and just overwhelms them and the referees will be a non-issue. If the match is at all close (within 1 goal or a draw) I could see the referees pushing for a Ghana draw. Nothing we can control though.

Also, and this is far too speculative to even consider in capping this match, but Group C is now finalized with USA in the #1 spot and England in the #2 spot. If Germany takes the 3 points from Ghana and wins Group D, they will be in line for a potentially monumental match-up with England in the first match of the round of 16. If Serbia is losing to Australia, could they sandbag this match and draw, hoping to earn the #2 spot in the Group and face a potentially much easier match in the USA? And probably an easier road to the finals, facing Uruguay/South Korea next and avoiding a match-up with Argentina? That's waaaaaay too speculative to even consider. The safest strategy for Germany is to just come out and kick some serious ass.

GL ALL LETS GO GERMANY! :beerbang:

I hear you. Covers is a joke. Most betting forums are filled with huge egos. Everyone guaranteeing their picks, and touting services. You'll find none of that here. Everyone's objective is to beat the book, not each other. People often forget that.

I agree completely with what you said. I can only hope for non-biased reffing for this match. The rest really doesn't concern, but I most definitely did take it into account.

Vidic is the mother hen for all Serbian football fans. He's always the one who has to bail them out, get them to calm the **** down in riots, ect. lmao. For Germany to sandbag the match, Australia would have to be up by 2 goals minimum. Vidic won't let that happen, let alone letting one in at all.

If you caught Lahm's presser before the WC, he said "Our fans EXPECT us to make it to the KO stages every year. This is a job for us until then. Once we get out of the Group, we can finally have some fun".

Germany knows the task at hand, if they can control their own destiny, they will 100%. Advancing via help from others is a LAST resort.

But yes, sandbagging would be a real option for them if Australia would be up by 2. I just can't see that happening.

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Ghana 0-0 Germany 25'

Man man man. Ozil is just not up for the moment. Why couldnt Podolski, or Lahm of had that ball. :bang:

[TheShank]

Starting to sweat a bit...You think Germany breaks through in the 2nd half Hero?

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Ghana 0-0 Germany HT

If I had known this result without seeing the 1H, I would admittedly be worried. But a goal is most definitely on the way. (I'm looking at you Podolski)

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Ghana 0-0 Germany 56'

Ozil is really making his mark in this game, in a negative way. Hitzlsperger should be in his place.

[RamPride]

this ozil character

is garbage

[PrimeTime]

There is the breakthrough! Thank you Ozil.

[wsox08]

GOALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL, LET'S HOLD ON GUYS!

[RamPride]

i say that..he scores a goal LMAO:thumbs:

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Ghana 0-1 Germany 60'

Thats what you get with Ozil. Grade C play, with flashes of A+.

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL