Astros vs. Mariners Analysis & Free Pick 7/22/22

by | Jul 22, 2022 | mlb

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners

Date: Friday, July 22nd, 10:10 ET

Location: T-Mobile Park

TV: ROOTNW

Money Line: Astros -115 / Mariners -105

Total Line: 8.5

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STARTING PITCHING

Houston: Justin Verlander (12-3, 1.89)
Seattle: Marco Gonzales (5-9, 3.50)

Astros Projected Lineup

Jake Meyers CF
Mauricio Dubón CF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Kyle Tucker RF
Aledmys Díaz LF
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Justin Verlander P

Mariners Projected Lineup

Cal Raleigh C
Adam Frazier 2B
Jesse Winker LF
Sam Haggerty RF
Eugenio Suárez 3B
J.P. Crawford SS
Carlos Santana 1B
Julio Rodriguez CF
Ty France 1B
Marco Gonzales P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Houston Astros: 59-32-0 SU / OU 33-57-3 / Run Line W/L 48-45-0
Seattle Mariners: 51-42-0 SU / OU 44-47-2 / Run Line W/L 49-44-0

The Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros on Friday, July 22nd at T-Mobile Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 10:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-120), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

Heading into today’s game, Houston will be looking to tack on another win after taking down the Yankees by the score of 7-5. The Yankees came up with 8 hits leading to 5 runs against Houston’s pitchers. The Astros benefited from an offense that generated 7 runs on 7 hits. Heading into their last game, Houston was the betting favorite at -130.0. Through 77 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 69.0%. With the over-under line set at 8.0 runs, the Astros and Yankees combined to go over this total. The Astros now have an over-under record of 33-57-3.

In the Astros’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +3. Houston comes into the game struggling on offense, averaging 3.8 runs per game over their last 5. This figure is down from their season average of 4.44. So far, Houston has won over half of their 31 series played, going 20-9-2.

In their last game, the Seattle Mariners picked up a 4 run win over the Rangers by a score of 6-2. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on 7 hits. In the victory, the Mariners came up with 10 hits and 6 runs. Seattle picked up the win while being favored at -135.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 47 games, winning at a rate of 64.0%. Combined, the Mariners and Rangers’ run total fell below the over-under line of 9.0 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 44-47-2.

The Mariners come into the matchup looking to stay hot, going 5-0 over their last five contests. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +12. Seattle is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 5.0 runs per game, compared to a season long mark of 4.14. On the season, Seattle has won more than half of their series, going 16-12-1.

Pitching Matchup

Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros, with an overall record of 12-3. Through 17 appearances, Verlander has an ERA of just 1.89 while averaging 6.42 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just 0.194 against him. Per 9 innings pitched, Verlander is averaging 0.91 home runs allowed. Per game, Justin Verlander is averaging 6.35 K’s, on a strikeout percentage of 26.0%. For the year, he is averaging 1.56 walks per outing.

In today’s game, Seattle turns to starter Marco Gonzales. For the year, he has a record of 5-9. To date, Gonzales has an ERA of 3.5 while lasting an average of 5.56 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.265. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Gonzales, averaging 1.26 homers per 9 innings pitched. Gonzales has accumulated a strikeout percentage of 12.0% and a per-game average of 2.94. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.05 walks per outing.

Houston vs Seattle History

Today’s matchup between the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners will be their 13th meeting of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Houston and Seattle each have 6 wins. Through 12 games, the series’ over-under record is 5-7, with the average run total sitting at 9.37 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 4.33 runs. Going back to last year, Houston won the season series, 11 games to 8. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 11-7. Last year, the Astros and Mariners averaged 9.37 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.79 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
  • Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Prediction

Heading into Friday night’s American League matchup between Houston and Seattle, the Astros have a slight edge on the moneyline. This comes despite the Mariners going for their 15th win in a row. Coming out of the All-Star Break, look for Houston to snap Seattle’s streak, as I expect Justin Verlander to bounce back from the last time he faced the Mariners. I like the Astros on the moneyline.

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