Astros vs Phillies Game 4 Odds & Predictions

by | Nov 2, 2022 | mlb

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Wednesday November 2nd, 08:03 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
Money Line: Astros -123 / Phillies +103
Total Line: 7.5


Houston: Cristian Javier (11-9, 2.54)
Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25)


Houston Astros: 106-56-0 SU / OU 63-99-10 / Run Line W/L 91-81-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75-0 SU / OU 90-80-6 / Run Line W/L 91-85-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Houston Astros on Wednesday, November 2nd at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:03 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-123), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Astros will look to bounce back from a tough loss to Philadelphia by the score of 7-0. On their way to giving up 7 runs, the Astros staff allowed 6 hits. With their 7 hits, the Astros could only muster 0 runs. This defeat came despite being favored at -125.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 149 of their games, winning at a rate of 68.0%. Together, the Astros and Philadelphia stayed below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. This outcome pushed Houston’s over-under record further below .500 at 63-99-10.

The Astros are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +1. Overall, Houston is averaging 4.52 runs per game. Over their last 5 contests, they have been producing at a similar rate, at 4.52. So far, Houston has won over half of their 56 series played, going 36-14-6.

The Philadelphia Phillies will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated the Astros by 7 runs (7-0). For the game, the pitching staff held the Astros to 0 runs on 7 hits. At the plate, the Phillies scored 7 times on 6 hits. Despite being the underdogs, getting 105.0 on the moneyline, the Phillies still picked up the win. In their 63 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 48.0%. Combined, the Phillies and Astros’ run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Philadelphia still has an above .500 over-under record at (90-80-6).

In their last 5 games, the Phillies have put together a record of 4-1. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +10. Overall, the Phillies are averaging 4.65 runs per contest. But, over their last 5 outings, they have been scoring at a clip of 5.8 runs per contest. On the season, Philadelphia has won more than half of their series, going 28-22-5.

100% REAL CASH up to $300


Pitching Matchup

The Houston Astros will send Cristian Javier to the mound with an overall record of 11-9. In his previous outings, Javier has lasted an average of 4.94 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.54. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just .170. Per 9 innings pitched, Javier is averaging 1.03 home runs allowed. In terms of strikeouts, Cristian Javier has a strong strikeout percentage of 33.0%, including a per-game average of 6.47. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Javier is averaging 3.15 free passes per outing.

Philadelphia will roll with Aaron Nola (11-13) as their starter. Through 32 appearances, Nola has an ERA of just 3.25 while averaging 6.41 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just .218. This year Nola is allowing just .83 home runs per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Aaron Nola has a strong K% of 28.9%, including a per-game average of 7.34. Nola comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 1.27 free passes per outing.

Houston vs Philadelphia History

For the season, the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies will be playing their 7th game of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Houston and Philadelphia each have 3 wins. Through 6 games, the series over-under record is 2-3, with the averge scoring margin in these meetings is 4.17 runs.

Betting Trends

  • Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 4 of a series.
  • Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Houston starter Christian Javier has only allowed 8 hits in his last 29.2 innings pitched. Philly starter Aaron Nola has only allowed 1 earned run in his last 29.2 innings at Citizens Bank Park. I’m betting the UNDER with confidence!

Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5 Runs

MLB Betting Guide

New to betting on baseball? We've got you covered! Our comprehensive how to bet on baseball article explains all the different types of wagers offered at the sportsbooks including money lines, over/unders, run lines, parlays and more! Also get tips and strategies to increase your odds of beating the bookies!