Astros vs. Phillies Game 5 Total Pick

by | Last updated Nov 3, 2022 | mlb

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Thursday November 3rd, 08:03 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
Money Line: Astros -155 / Phillies +130
Total Line: 7.5


Houston: Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75)
Philadelphia: Noah Syndergaard (5-8, 3.82)

Astros Projected Lineup

Trey Mancini 1B
Chas McCormick CF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Justin Verlander P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Bryson Stott SS
Jean Segura 2B
Nick Castellanos RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Brandon Marsh CF
J.T. Realmuto C
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Noah Syndergaard P


Houston Astros: 106-56-0 SU / OU 63-100-10 / Run Line W/L 92-81-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75-0 SU / OU 90-81-6 / Run Line W/L 91-86-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Houston Astros on Thursday, November 3rd at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:03 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-155), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

In Houston’s last game vs Philadelphia, the Astros came away with a 5-0 win. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 0 runs on 0 hits. The Astros lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 10 hits, leading to 5 runs. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 100.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Astros and Philadelphia stayed below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. With this result, Houston’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 63-100-10.

The Astros are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +1. In their last 5 contests, Houston is averaging 4.2 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.53. So far, Houston has won over half of their 56 series played, going 36-13-7.

Philadelphia will look to move on from a 5-run loss to the Astros, falling by the score of 5-0. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 10 hits, leading to 5 runs. The Phillies’ offense ended the game with 0 runs on 0 hits. Philadelphia dropped the game despite being favored at -110.0. So far, the team has won 60.0% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Phillies and Astros combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Even still, Philadelphia games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 90-81-6.

Across their last 5 contests, the Phillies are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +1. Philadelphia is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 3.8 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.63. On the season, Philadelphia has won more than half of their series, going 27-22-6.

Pitching Matchup

The Houston Astros will send Justin Verlander to the mound with an overall record of 18-4. Through 28 appearances, Verlander has an ERA of just 1.75 while averaging 6.25 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just .186 against him. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.62 home runs allowed per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Justin Verlander has a strong strikeout percentage of 28%, including a per-game average of 6.61. Command has been a problem for Verlander, as he is giving up 1.49 walks per outing.

The Philadelphia Phillies will send Noah Syndergaard to the mound with an overall record of 5-8. So far, Syndergaard has put together an ERA of 3.82. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.33 innings. Syndergaard’s opponent batting average currently sits at .244. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Syndergaard, as he is allowing just 1.01 per 9 innings. Overall, Noah Syndergaard has struck out 19.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 4.27 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.48 walks per outing.

Houston vs Philadelphia History

Today’s matchup between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies will be their 8th meeting of the season. So far, Houston is leading the season series, 4-3. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-4.

Betting Trends

  • Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
  • Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m expecting a huge emotional letdown after all the euphoria/adrenaline spent after Houston tossed a no-hitter Wednesday night. On the flip side, I don’t see the Phillies hitting much off of Verlander. I’m forecasting the game to be very low scoring, so am hitting the UNDER 7.5 runs hard.

Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5 Runs

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