Blue Jays at Mariners ALCS Game 4 Pick: Over 7.5 Looks Solid Despite Castillo’s Season Numbers
Toronto Blue Jays (98-71, 91-73 O/U) at Seattle Mariners (95-75, 93-71 O/U)
When: Thursday, October 16, 2025, 8:33 PM ET
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington
Series: ALCS Game 4 (Seattle leads 2-1)
Betting Odds
Moneyline: Toronto +100 / Seattle -120
Total: 7.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Runline: Toronto -1.5 +170 / Seattle +1.5 -210
The Blue Jays clawed back into this series with a 13-4 demolition job last night, cutting Seattle’s lead to 2-1. That offensive explosion might be exactly what Toronto needed to get their bats rolling. Seattle’s sending out Luis Castillo on 11 days of rest, while Toronto counters with Max Scherzer looking to even this series. The total sits at 7.5, and we’re seeing some compelling reasons to think both offenses show up tonight.
Sharp Money Take
The market’s showing interesting movement here. Seattle opened as a slight favorite at -120, which feels about right given home field and Castillo’s overall season numbers. But dig into the context and you’ll see why sharp bettors might be eyeing that total. The past four games in this series played in Seattle have sailed Over the number, and we’re seeing 8-2 Over results in the season series between these clubs. That’s not random noise.
Castillo’s season ERA of 0.90 in his last five starts looks dominant on paper, but context matters. The guy hasn’t started in 11 days and only logged 1.1 innings of relief work in that span. When these teams met earlier this year, Castillo got roughed up for 8 runs over 10 innings across two starts against Toronto, surrendering 17 hits and 4 walks. The Jays have seen him enough to know what’s coming.
Key Matchup Analysis
Max Scherzer versus Luis Castillo should be a pitcher’s duel in theory, but we’re not living in theory right now. Scherzer’s current form is concerning if you’re backing Toronto straight up, but it’s exactly what we want to see for the Over. He’s allowed four or more runs in four of his last five starts and gave up at least one homer in all four of those outings. When a veteran arm starts leaking runs consistently, it usually doesn’t fix itself overnight in a playoff pressure cooker.
Castillo’s been exceptional lately, posting a 5-0 record with that microscopic 0.90 ERA over his last five appearances. He’s averaging 6.0 innings per start with 5.4 strikeouts and keeping the ball in the yard. But here’s the thing—rust is real in baseball. That 11-day layoff between starts is not ideal timing, especially against a Toronto lineup that’s put up runs against him before. In his last meeting with the Jays back on May 9th, he lasted 5 innings and gave up 5 earned runs on 7 hits.
Situational Factors
This is Game 4 of the ALCS with Seattle up 2-1. Toronto just exploded for 13 runs yesterday, so the bats are heating up at the right time. They’ve got momentum coming off that blowout win. Seattle’s was super strong at home this campaign, and the host typically show up offensively when they have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.
The bullpen situation favors runs too. Toronto’s available relievers are sitting at a 3.33 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP, while Seattle’s pen has been solid at 2.79 ERA. However, in their last three appearances, Toronto’s bullpen allowed 8 runs over 10 innings with a bloated 7.20 ERA. If Scherzer exits early, we could see some fireworks.
Statistical Edges
Let’s talk trends. Toronto is 91-73 O/U on the season, while Seattle sits at 93-71 O/U. Both teams lean toward scoring. The head-to-head matchup this season shows 8-2 Over results when these clubs meet, and the last four games at T-Mobile Park have all gone Over.
Toronto’s averaging 5.02 runs per game this season while allowing 4.48, good for a combined 9.50 runs per game. Seattle’s at 4.72 runs scored and 4.30 allowed for a 9.02 combined average. When you factor in playoff intensity and elimination game desperation from Toronto, these offenses should be motivated.
The weather forecast doesn’t show any conditions that would suppress scoring. We’re looking at typical October baseball in Seattle—no wind, no rain, just two teams battling it out.
The Verdict
I’m riding the Over 7.5 with confidence here. Scherzer’s recent struggles give Seattle’s offense a legitimate chance to plate runs early, and Castillo’s layoff combined with his history of struggling against the Blue Jays suggests Toronto’s bats can get to him. The elimination game pressure on Toronto means they’ll be aggressive at the plate, and Seattle’s offense has been rolling at home all postseason.
The trends are screaming Over—8-2 in the season series, four straight Overs at T-Mobile Park this series, and both teams trending toward high-scoring affairs. When you get a total this low with two offenses capable of erupting and starters showing vulnerability, you take the Over and don’t overthink it.
The Play: Over 7.5 (-110) for 2 units
Alternative Look: If you want to get creative, consider the First 5 Innings Over 4.0 runs. Both starters have shown cracks recently, and the bullpens won’t factor into that equation. Toronto’s desperation should lead to early aggression, and Castillo’s rust could show up in the first few innings.