Diamondbacks vs. Padres Moneyline Prediction

by | Jul 17, 2022 | mlb

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

Date: Sunday, July 17th, 04:10 ET

Location: Petco Park

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Money Line: Diamondbacks +126 / Padres -150 (Everygame - Check out their 200% bonus on your $25 deposit!)

Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Arizona: Merrill Kelly (8-5, 3.36)
San Diego: Mike Clevinger (2-2, 3.79)

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Carson Kelly C
Sergio Alcant√°ra 2B
David Peralta LF
Daulton Varsho RF
Josh Rojas 3B
Geraldo Perdomo SS
Ketel Marte 2B
Christian Walker 1B
Alek Thomas CF
Merrill Kelly P

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Nomar Mazara RF
Jorge Alfaro C
Eric Hosmer 1B
Manny Machado 3B
Trent Grisham CF
Luke Voit 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Jake Cronenworth 1B
Mike Clevinger P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Arizona Diamondbacks: 39-52-0 SU / OU 41-47-3 / Run Line W/L 51-40-0
San Diego Padres: 52-41-0 SU / OU 42-49-2 / Run Line W/L 44-49-0

The San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday, July 17th at Petco Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 04:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-150), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

In their last game, the Diamondbacks suffered a 1-run loss to the Padres by a score of 4-3. Arizona’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 8 hits, leading to 4 runs. On offense, the Diamondbacks finished with 3 runs on 10 hits. The loss came as Arizona was the betting underdog, getting 160.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 8.0 runs. With this result, Arizona’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 41-47-3.

After their 5 most recent games, the Diamondbacks have gone just 1-4. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -16. A key reason for Arizona’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 2.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 4.18. Arizona’s overall series record is just 9-15-5.

In their last game, the Padres picked up a close win over the Diamondbacks by a score of 4-3. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Diamondbacks to 3 runs and 10 hits. With their 8 hits, the Padres could only muster 4 runs. Heading into action, San Diego was the favorite at -196.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 66 games, winning at a rate of 56%. With this result, the Padres and Diamondbacks combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. Now, San Diego had an over-under record of 42-49-2.

The Padres come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -6. In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate of 4.6 runs per game, similar to their season-long average of 4.38. On the season, San Diego has won more than half of their series, going 14-10-5.

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Pitching Matchup

Arizona will roll with Merrill Kelly (8-5) as their starter. So far, Kelly has put together an ERA of 3.36. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.78 innings. Kelly comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.233. This season, Kelly has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.52 per 9 innings. Per game, Merrill Kelly is averaging 4.67, on a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.11 walks per outing.

In today’s game, San Diego turns to starter Mike Clevinger. For the year, he has a record of 2-2. So far, Clevinger has put together an ERA of 3.79. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.46 innings. Through 9 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.214. Per 9 innings pitched, Clevinger is giving up 1.12 home runs. Up to this point, Clevinger has a strikeout percentage of just 24.0% and a per-game average of 4.44. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.9 walks per contest.

Arizona vs San Diego History

Today’s matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres will be their 12th meeting of the season. San Diego holds the edge in the series at 9-2. Through 11 games, the series’ over-under record is 4-7, with the average run total sitting at 9.21 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.82 runs. Dating back to last season, the San Diego picked up 11 wins compared to 8, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 10-8, with the average run total being 9.21 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.37 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
  • San Diego is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Arizona

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s matchup between Arizona and San Diego, the Padres are the favorite on the moneyline. Even though Mike Clevinger is coming off a couple of tough outings, he will be facing an Arizona offense that has not scored more than 3 runs in over a week of games. I like San Diego on the moneyline.

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