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MLB Pick: LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres 7/11/18

by | Jul 11, 2018 | mlb

Event: Dodgers vs. Padres
Date/Time: July 11, 2018
Location: Petco Park
Money Line: LAD -148 / SD +138
Total line: 7
By Darin Zank

The Dodgers and Padres continue a four-game series at Petco Park Wednesday night (10:10 ET). Which way are we playing this contest with our daily free MLB picks?

The MLB Betting Line

Wednesday’s MLB betting odds opened LA and Kenta Maeda at around -155 over San Diego and Joey Lucchesi, with an over/under of runs. The early betting action then pushed that line down about a couple of bucks, to the -153 range at most betting sites with the best line we could find on the favorite over at 5Dimes listing LAD -138.

The Dodgers could also be bet at around -105 giving the run and a half on the run line.

Set-Up

Los Angeles took the opener of this series Monday night 8-2, but the Padres won Tuesday night 4-1, cashing in as +140 dogs on the MLB betting line. San Diego put up a four-spot in the bottom of the fifth and got 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball from rookie starting pitcher Eric Lauer for the victory.

>With Tuesday’s loss, the Dodgers are 2-3 over their last five games. At 49-42 overall Los Angeles trails first-place Arizona by a game and a half in the NL West and also sits a game and a half behind Atlanta in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

Even with Tuesday’s victory, the Padres are only 7-17 over their last 24 games. At 40-54 San Diego sits 12 games back in both the NL West and the wild-card race.

The Dodgers lead this season series seven games to four, outscoring the Padres 62-35.

Wednesday’s Starting Arms

Rookie lefty Joey Lucchesi (4-3, 3.27) is just 2/13 on quality starts this season, but some of that can be attributed to a very short leash. Last Friday he held Arizona to two runs and three hits through 5 1/3 innings, although San Diego lost that game 3-1. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed just two runs and five hits through 14 1/3 innings. The Padres are 5-8 with Lucchesi this year, with the unders going 7-6.

In his only career start against the Dodgers back on May 4, Lucchesi gave up three runs and five hits, including two homers, through five innings of a 4-0 San Diego loss.

Maeda (5-5, 3.24) is only 5/15 on quality starts this year, but one out away from being three for his last three. Last Friday he held the Angels to one run and three hits through 5 2/3 innings, with nine strikeouts, although LA lost that game 3-2. And over his last three starts, he’s given up just three earned runs and 11 hits through 19 2/3 innings. The Dodgers are 7-8 with Maeda this year, with the unders going 11-3.

In two starts this season against the Padres Maeda allowed seven runs through 10 2/3 innings, with 17 strikeouts. Los Angeles split those two games, and both games played over.

Wednesday’s Batting Splits

LA ranks 26th in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .231 team batting average, 18th with a .315 team OBP and 18th with a .400 team slugging percentage.

San Diego ranks 26th against right-handed pitching with a .233 BA, 27th with a .299 OBP and dead last - 30th - with a .354 slugging percentage.

The Dodgers aren’t exactly rocking with the sticks here, but they do get our handicapping check-mark in this department for Wednesday.

The Bullpens

The Los Angeles bullpen ranks 14th in the ML with a 3.86 ERA and 15th with a 1.31 WHIP, while going 28/45 on save opportunities.

The Padres pen ranks 10th in ERA at 3.65 and 7th in WHIP at 1.21 while going 26/34 on save conversions.

We gotta give San Diego the edge in the comparison of the bullpens.

Totals Report

The overs are 27-18 in games played at Petco Park this year, which are averaging 9.3 total runs per, which is a run and a half more than Petco games averaged last year.

The overs are 6-5 in this season series, as Dodgers-Padres games are averaging 8.8 runs per.

Free MLB Picks

Los Angeles is 18-14 against LH starters this year; San Diego is 30-34 against RH starters. Also, all seven of the Dodgers’ victories in this season series have come by at least three runs. Also, the Padres haven’t won consecutive games in almost a month. We’re betting LA here, and we’ll give the run and a half against the run line.

Baseball Sportsbooks

10¢ to: 20¢ to:
-200 -279
Heritage
-200 -240
5Dimes
-195 -266