Seattle Mariners (94-74) vs Toronto Blue Jays (97-70)
When: Monday, October 13, 2025, 5:03 PM ET
Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
Betting Odds
Moneyline: SEA +110 / TOR -130
Total: 7.5 (o -105 / u -115)
Runline: SEA +1.5 -185 / TOR -1.5 +155
Sharp Money Take
After snatching home-field advantage with a 3-1 victory in Game 1, Seattle’s looking to put Toronto in a serious hole. But here’s the thing that’s catching my eye: this total at 7.5 feels a bit generous given what we just witnessed. The opener stayed well under 8, and we’re getting similar pitching matchups with Logan Gilbert taking the hill for the Mariners.
The line movement tells an interesting story. We’ve seen the total hold steady at 7.5, with the juice moving slightly toward the under from -105 to -115. That’s the market telling us something – sharp money is nibbling at this number. When you’ve got two teams that just combined for four runs in a postseason atmosphere, and you’re getting quality starting pitching again, the under starts looking real attractive.
Gilbert’s been dealing lately, posting a 2.30 ERA over his last five starts while averaging 5.1 innings of work. The Blue Jays are countering with Trey Yesavage, who’s been nearly untouchable with a 2.33 ERA and three straight wins heading into this one. Both guys have been stingy with the long ball and limiting hard contact when it matters most.
Key Matchup Analysis
Let’s talk about Gilbert for a second. This guy’s been money in the playoffs, and his recent form backs it up. In his last outing against Detroit, he tossed 6 innings of one-run ball, striking out 7 without allowing a walk. He’s keeping hitters off balance and limiting traffic on the bases – exactly what you want in October baseball.
The Mariners’ offense has been quiet in this series, which actually works in our favor for the under. They’ve scored 3 runs in consecutive games and are hitting just .238 as a team against right-handed pitching. Yesavage throws from the right side and has been lights out, allowing just 7 total runs across his last three starts combined.
Toronto’s lineup isn’t exactly crushing it either. They managed only 2 hits in Game 1 and have struggled to generate consistent offense against Seattle’s deep bullpen. The Blue Jays are averaging 4.99 runs per game at home, but that number takes a hit when facing elite pitching staffs like Seattle’s.
Situational Factors
Playoff baseball is a different beast, and both teams know it. We’re seeing tighter strike zones, more conservative baserunning, and managers going to their best arms earlier than they would in the regular season. Seattle’s bullpen has been outstanding, posting a 3.27 ERA as a unit with Andres Munoz and Matt Brash available for high-leverage situations.
The Rogers Centre roof will likely be closed given the October weather, which typically plays neutral but can suppress offense slightly compared to summer conditions. More importantly, both teams are playing with house money mentally – Seattle with momentum and Toronto desperate to even the series. That usually translates to careful at-bats and fewer mistakes, which keeps the scoreboard quiet.
Looking at the recent history between these clubs, the under has cashed in 11 of the last 16 meetings at Rogers Centre. That’s a significant trend that can’t be ignored, especially when both teams are playing their best defensive baseball of the season.
Statistical Edges
The numbers don’t lie, and they’re pointing toward a pitcher’s duel. Seattle’s gone under in 5 of their last 7 games overall, and they’re 4-6 on totals in their last 10. More telling is their road performance – they’ve been involved in some low-scoring affairs away from home, which makes sense given their pitching-first identity.
Toronto’s total record sits at 89-73 on the season, but they’ve gone 5-5 in their last 10 games on the over/under. The under is 11-5 when Toronto hosts Seattle at Rogers Centre over their last 16 meetings, which is about as strong a situational trend as you’ll find.
Gilbert’s recent performances show a clear pattern. He’s averaging 5.8 strikeouts per start over his last five outings while maintaining excellent control with just 0.8 walks per game. Against Toronto specifically, he threw 4.2 innings back in April, allowing just 2 runs while striking out 9. That’s the kind of stuff that plays up in October.
Yesavage might not have the name recognition, but the results speak for themselves. He’s won three straight starts, including a dominant performance against the Yankees where he went 5.1 innings and gave up 7 runs – okay, that one wasn’t great, but he bounced back. His ability to pitch out of trouble and limit damage has been key for Toronto’s run to this point.
The Verdict
I’m riding with the under 7.5 at -115 for 2 units. This game has all the makings of another tight, low-scoring playoff affair. You’ve got two motivated teams with quality starting pitching, deep bullpens, and offenses that are pressing a bit trying to manufacture runs in high-leverage situations.
The playoff atmosphere tends to tighten things up, and we saw that play out in Game 1. Both managers will have quick hooks for their starters if things get dicey, which means we’ll see the best relief arms earlier than usual. That’s bad news for hitters and great news for under bettors.
Gilbert’s recent form combined with Yesavage’s success sets up a game where 3-2 or 4-2 feels like the most likely outcome. Even if one offense breaks through for 4 or 5 runs, we’d need the other team to match it to push this over, and I don’t see that happening.
For alternative action, consider the first five innings under 4 if you want to isolate the starting pitchers. Also worth looking at Seattle team total under 3.5, as they’ve been struggling to generate consistent offense throughout the series.
The Pick: Under 7.5 runs (-115) – 2 units
