Padres vs Dodgers Free Pick for Game 1

by | Oct 11, 2022 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Date: Tuesday October 11th, 09:37 ET

Location: Dodger Stadium

TV: FS1

Money Line: Padres +170 / Dodgers -210 (Bet it for FREE! Get a 100% bonus when you use bonus promo code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!)

Total Line: 6.5

STARTING PITCHING

San Diego: Mike Clevinger (7-7, 4.33)
Los Angeles: Clayton Kershaw (12-3, 2.28)

Padres Projected Lineup

Jurickson Profar LF
Austin Nola C
Brandon Drury 1B
Juan Soto RF
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Manny Machado 3B
Jose Azocar RF
Josh Bell 1B
Ha-seong Kim SS
Mike Clevinger P

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Chris Taylor LF
Cody Bellinger CF
Max Muncy 3B
Mookie Betts RF
Justin Turner 3B
Gavin Lux 2B
Will Smith C
Freddie Freeman 1B
Trea Turner SS
Clayton Kershaw P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

San Diego Padres: 89-73-0 SU / OU 76-83-6 / Run Line W/L 75-90-0
Los Angeles Dodgers: 111-51-0 SU / OU 67-83-12 / Run Line W/L 97-65-0

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on Tuesday October 11th at Dodger Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 09:37 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Los Angeles as the favorite (-210), with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

The San Diego Padres are coming off a 6-run win over the Mets by a score of 6-0. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited New York to 0 runs on 12 hits. The Padres benefited from an offense that generated 6 runs on 4 hits. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 120.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 6.5 runs. This outcome pushed San Diego’s over-under record further below .500 at 76-83-6.

In the Padres’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +5. San Diego’s offense heads into action averaging 4.6 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.37. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 52 series played, going 27-18-7.

In their last game, the Los Angeles Dodgers picked up a 5 run win over the Rockies by a score of 6-1. For the game, the pitching staff held the Rockies to 1 run on 2 hits. In the victory, the Dodgers came up with 8 hits and 6 runs. Heading into action, Los Angeles was the favorite at -320.0. So far, the team has won 70.0% of the games in which they were favored. Combined, the Dodgers and Rockies’ run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Now, Los Angeles had an over-under record of 67-83-12.

In their last 5 contests, the Dodgers have just 2 wins, going 2-3. During this time, the team has a run differential of 0. If Los Angeles is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 3.2 runs per game, compared to a season average of 5.23. On the season, Los Angeles has won more than half of their series, going 37-10-3.

Pitching Matchup

Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Padres, with an overall record of 7-7. So far, Clevinger has put together an ERA of 4.33. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.96 innings. So far, Clevinger has a batting average allowed of .231. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Clevinger, averaging 1.58 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Mike Clevinger has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 19.0%. This includes a per-game average of 3.96 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Clevinger, as he is giving up 2.76 walks per outing.

In today’s game, Los Angeles turns to starter Clayton Kershaw. For the year, he has a record of 12-3. Heading into the game, Kershaw has appeared in 22 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.28. On average, he pitches 5.73 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just .206 against him. This year Kershaw is allowing just 0.71 home runs per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Clayton Kershaw is averaging 6.23. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 1.64 walks per outing.

San Diego vs Los Angeles History

For the season, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will be playing their 20th game of the season. Los Angeles holds the edge in the series at 14-5. The over-under record in this series sits at 8-9. The average run total in these games is 8.21 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.42 runs.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games
  • San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • LA Dodgers is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against San Diego
  • LA Dodgers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

As the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers kick off this NL Wild Card matchup, the Dodgers are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. Although the Padres pulled out a shocking series win over New York, look for them to fall behind early in the series, as Julio Urias has been untouchable nearly all season long. I recommend taking the Dodgers on the moneyline for game 1.

Free MLB Pick: Dodgers Moneyline. Note: Get educted about MLB dimelines! It’ll save you a ton of money!

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