Phillies vs. Astros Betting Stats, Analysis, Predictions for Game 2

by | Last updated Oct 29, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros
Date: Saturday October 29th, 08:03 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
Money Line: Phillies +117 / Astros -140
Total Line: 7.0


Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82)
Houston: Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.77)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Jean Segura 2B
Matt Vierling CF
Nick Castellanos RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Edmundo Sosa 3B
J.T. Realmuto C
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Zack Wheeler P

Astros Projected Lineup

Trey Mancini 1B
Chas McCormick CF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Framber Valdez P


Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75-0 SU / OU 90-79-5 / Run Line W/L 90-84-0
Houston Astros: 106-56-0 SU / OU 63-98-9 / Run Line W/L 90-80-0

The Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, October 29th at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:03 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-140), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

In the Philadelphia Phillies’ last game, they picked up a 6-5 win over Houston. For the game, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 5 runs on 10 hits. The Phillies lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 9 hits, leading to 6 runs. Philadelphia picked up the win, despite getting 145.0 on the moneyline. With the over-under line set at 6.5 runs, the Phillies and Houston combined to go over this total. Philadelphia has had more than half of their games go over the over-under line (90-79-5).

In the Phillies’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 4-1. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +5. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 5.8 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.66. So far, Philadelphia has won over half of their 55 series played, going 28-22-5.

In their last game, the Astros suffered a 1 run loss to the Phillies by a score of 6-5. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 9 hits, leading to 6 runs. At the plate, the Astros scored 5 times on 10 hits. Houston dropped the game despite being favored at -165.0. So far, the team has won 69.0% of the games in which they were favored. The Astros and Phillies went over the run total line set at 6.5 runs. On the season, the team has an over-under record of just 63-98-9.

In their last 5 games, the Astros have put together a record of 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +8 (last 5). Houston is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.6 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.55. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 36-14-6.

Pitching Matchup

Philadelphia will roll with Zack Wheeler (12-7) as their starter. Through 26 appearances, Wheeler has an ERA of just 2.82 while averaging 5.88 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just .221. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.76 home runs allowed per 9 innings. Per game, Zack Wheeler is averaging 6.27, on a strikeout percentage of 27.0%. Command has been a problem for Wheeler, as he is giving up 2.0 walks per outing.

The Houston Astros will send Framber Valdez to the mound with an overall record of 17-6. Currently, Valdez has a strong ERA of just 2.77 while pitching an average of 6.49 innings per outing. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just .220. This year Valdez is allowing just 0.49 home runs per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Framber Valdez has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 23.0%. This has led to an average of 6.26 K’s per game. Valdez comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 3.0 free passes per outing.

Philadelphia vs Houston History

Today’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros will be their 5th meeting of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Philadelphia and Houston each have 2 wins. Through 4 games, the series’ over-under record is 2-2. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.75 runs.

Betting Trends

  • Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
  • Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games.
  • Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 playoff games.

Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros Prediction

The Phillies’ surprising run in the playoffs continued with a thrilling 6-5 extra-innings win over the Astros. Even though they are yet again the betting underdog, they have to feel good about Zack Wheeler taking the mound. However, look for left-hander Framber Valdez to continue his outstanding post-season run. This includes shutting down the Yankees in his last outing. I like Houston to even the series.

Free MLB Pick: Astros Moneyline

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