Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Analysis & Predictions

by | Last updated Aug 30, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Date: Tuesday August 30th, 09:40 ET

Location: Chase Field


Money Line: Phillies -130 / Diamondbacks +108 (Take advantage of MLB Dimelines!)

Total Line: 7.0


Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (9-10, 3.08)
Arizona: Zac Gallen (9-2, 2.73)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Bryson Stott SS
Jean Segura 2B
J.T. Realmuto C
Nick Castellanos RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Brandon Marsh CF
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Aaron Nola P

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Alek Thomas CF
Carson Kelly C
Corbin Carroll RF
Daulton Varsho C
Josh Rojas 2B
Geraldo Perdomo SS
Ketel Marte 2B
Christian Walker 1B
Emmanuel Rivera 3B
Zac Gallen P


Philadelphia Phillies: 72-57-0 SU / OU 64-60-5 / Run Line W/L 67-62-0
Arizona Diamondbacks: 60-67-0 SU / OU 59-64-4 / Run Line W/L 74-53-0

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday August 30th at Chase Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 09:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-130), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

The Phillies will look to bounce back from a tough loss to Arizona by the score of 13-7. In the loss, Philadelphia’s pitchers gave up 13 runs on 10 hits. The Phillies ended the game with 11 hits of their own, leading to 7 runs. This defeat came despite being favored at -180.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 88 of their games, winning at a rate of 59.0%. This game went over the posted over-under line of 8.5 runs. Philadelphia now has an over-under record of 64-60-5.

In the Phillies’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +2. Overall, Philadelphia is averaging 4.65 runs per game. Over their last 5 contests, they have been producing at a similar rate, at 4.65. So far, Philadelphia has won over half of their 41 series played, going 20-18-3.

In their last game, the Arizona Diamondbacks picked up a 6 run win over the Phillies by a score of 13-7. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 11 hits, leading to 7 runs. Offensively, they finished with 13 runs on 10 hits. This was a good win for the Diamondbacks, as they were underdogs at 160.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has gone into 86 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 43.0%. The Diamondbacks and Phillies went over the run total line set at 8.5 runs. So far, Arizona has an over-under record of just 59-64-4.

In their last 5 games, the Diamondbacks have put together a record of 4-1. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +15. Overall, the Diamondbacks are averaging 4.39 runs per contest. But, over their last 5 outings, they have been scoring at a clip of 7.2 runs per contest. Arizona has a below .500 series record of just 16-18-7.

Pitching Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the mound with an overall record of 9-10. In his previous outings, Nola has lasted an average of 6.65 innings, putting together an ERA of just 3.08. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.215. Nola is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.87 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Aaron Nola is averaging 7.4 per game. On average, he is giving up 1.19 walks per outing.

Zac Gallen gets the start for the Diamondbacks, with an overall record of 9-2. Heading into the game, Gallen has appeared in 24 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.73. On average, he pitches 5.76 innings per appearance. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just 0.196 against the right-hander. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.72 home runs allowed per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Zac Gallen has a strong K% of 25.0%, including a per game average of 5.75. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.47 walks per outing.

Philadelphia vs Arizona History

For the season, the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks will be playing their 5th game of the season. So far, the teams have each won 2 times. The over-under record in this series sits at 3-1. The average run total in these games is 9.29 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 6.0 runs. Arizona won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 4 wins to 3. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-3. Last year, the Phillies and Diamondbacks averaged 9.29 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 2.71 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games when playing Arizona
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games on the road
  • Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
  • Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Leading into Tuesday’s matchup between Philadelphia and Arizona, the Phillies have the slight edge on the moneyline. Even though last night’s games featured a ton of offense, I expect this to be a low-scoring game. However, I give the edge to Aaron Nola and the Phillies. I like Philadelphia on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Phillies Moneyline