Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Free Pick 8/11/22

by | Last updated Aug 26, 2022 | mlb

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Date: Thursday August 11th, 03:40 ET

Location: Chase Field

TV: ATT SportsNet-PIT

Money Line: Pirates +141 / Diamondbacks -170 (Everygame – Deposit $25 and get an extra $50 when you sign up through our link and use bonus code ROOKIE200 after you deposit!)

Total Line: 8.0


Pittsburgh: JT Brubaker (2-10, 4.49)
Arizona: Merrill Kelly (10-5, 2.86)

Pirates Projected Lineup

Bligh Madris 1B
Michael Chavis 1B
Oneil Cruz SS
Tucupita Marcano 2B
Ben Gamel RF
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Jason Delay C
Kevin Newman SS
Bryan Reynolds CF
JT Brubaker P

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Seth Beer 1B
Carson Kelly C
Daulton Varsho RF
Jake McCarthy LF
Josh Rojas 3B
Geraldo Perdomo SS
Ketel Marte 2B
Christian Walker 1B
Alek Thomas CF
Merrill Kelly P


Pittsburgh Pirates: 44-66-0 SU / OU 47-56-8 / Run Line W/L 58-53-0
Arizona Diamondbacks: 50-59-0 SU / OU 51-55-4 / Run Line W/L 63-47-0

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday August 11th at Chase Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 03:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Arizona as the favorite (-170), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

In their most recent game, Pittsburgh picked up a 2 run win over the Diamondbacks (6-4). The Diamondbacks came up with 7 hits leading to 4 runs against Pittsburgh’s pitchers. The Pirates lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 11 hits, leading to 6 runs. Pittsburgh picked up the win, despite getting 130.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Pirates and Diamondbacks combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.0 runs. The Pirates now have an over-under record of 47-56-8.

The Pirates will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. Despite their below .500 record (last 5), in this stretch, the team still has a positive run differential at +1. Despite their below .500 record, in Pittsburgh’s last 5 games, they are averaging just 4.2. Their season-long average currently sits at 3.62 (28th. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is just 9-20-7.

In Arizona’s last outing, they fell by a score of 6-4 to the Pirates. Arizona’s pitching staff gave up 11 hits, leading to 6 runs for the Pirates. With their 7 hits, the Diamondbacks could only plate 4 runners. Arizona came away with a loss, despite being favored on the moneyline (-154.0). So far, the team has won 53.0% of the games in which they were favored. The Diamondbacks and Pirates went over the run total line set at 8.0 runs. So far, Arizona has an over-under record of just 51-55-4.

Across their last 5 contests, the Diamondbacks are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +4. Arizona has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.2 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.25. Arizona has a below .500 series record of just 13-17-5.


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Pitching Matchup

Pittsburgh will roll with JT Brubaker (2-10) as their starter. To date, Brubaker has an ERA of 4.49 while lasting an average of 5.15 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.275. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Brubaker, as he is allowing just 0.92 per 9 innings. Per game, JT Brubaker is averaging 5.29, on a strikeout percentage of 23.0%. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Brubaker is averaging 3.66 free passes per outing.

Arizona will roll with Merrill Kelly (10-5) as their starter. Currently, Kelly has a strong ERA of just 2.86 while pitching an average of 6.0 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.226 against him. This year Kelly is allowing just 0.55 home runs per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Merrill Kelly has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 21.0%. This has led to an average of 4.95 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.65 walks per outing.

Pittsburgh vs Arizona History

For the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks will be playing their 7th game of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Pittsburgh and Arizona each have 3 wins. Through 6 games, the series over-under record is 3-3, with the average run total sitting at 9.5 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.17 runs. Dating back to last season, Arizona picked up 4 wins compared to 2, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 3-3, with the average run total being 9.5 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.5 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh’s last 12 games when playing on the road against Arizona
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games when playing Arizona
  • Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
  • Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Leading into Thursday’s matchup between Pittsburgh and Arizona, the Diamondbacks are the favorite on the moneyline. This season, both teams rank near the bottom of the league in batting average vs right-handed pitching. However, I expect the Pirates to have a harder time vs Merrill Kelly and his WHIP of just 1.13. I like Arizona on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline.

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