Today’s MLB Pick: White Sox vs. Red Sox

by | May 25, 2022 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (20-22) vs. Chicago White Sox (21-21)
When: 8:10 p.m., Wednesday, May 25
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Moneyline: BOS +150/CHW -170 (MyBookie)
Runline: Red Sox +1.5/White Sox -1.5
Total: 8

Starting Pitchers: Rich Hill (1-1, 3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs. Lucas Giolito (2-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)

Offensive Explosion

It’s time to consider the possibility that the Red Sox’s recent power surge might just have something to do with the fact that Boston’s offense is hitting on all cylinders. The Red Sox might have started out simply by pounding the Rangers and their terrible pitching staff for 19 runs in a three-game series, but they’re now on their fourth straight opponent where they’ve stepped up and pounded the opposing pitcher.

Over the past 11 games, the Red Sox have not only gone 9-2 in the fact of their competition, but they’ve pushed across at least four runs in 10 of those 11 contests. Odds are, we’re not going to see too many instances as we did of the Red Sox scoring four before their opponent has even once come to the plate, but there’s no denying that the Red Sox are whacking the ball right now. They’ve scored 49 runs in their past five games, and while that’s not sustainable, it does make the over an attractive proposition at the moment.

Two Steps Forward, One Steps Back

One of the easiest things to do in baseball is convince yourself that you still have plenty of time before things really start to matter. But in the case of the White Sox, it might be time to at least start asking questions, if not outright hitting the panic alarm. The White Sox haven’t shown any kind of consistency and haven’t built off the success they’ve had when it comes on a previous day.
The loss on Tuesday to Boston was another great example: the White Sox came in having just held the Yankees to one run in 18 innings, but instead of building on that with a strong pitching performance, the Pale Hose gave up four runs before anyone in white had even had the chance to take a few swings in the on-deck circle.

That’s been the biggest problem for Chicago all year: they’re as equally likely to come out with a dominating defensive showing as they are to get killed and absorb another damaging loss, which is why they’re sitting at just .500. The White Sox still believe that they’ll end up catching up to the Twins, but that’s starting to look like something that isn’t going to be quite on schedule. If the White Sox are going to live up to the promise they showed last year, they have to start building a run of positive momentum.

Complacency Sets In?

When you have the kind of offense that the Red Sox have shown, it’s easy to assume that they’re going to do the majority of the hitting. But when you make that assumption, it often leads to the defense and pitching staff relaxing a little bit because they don’t have to be perfect in order to get a result. All they have to do is either pitch well enough to win the game or at least not lose the game by making too many mistakes.
In Rich Hill’s case, that was true of his previous start, as he gave up four runs with three of them earned in a win. For most of the year, Hill has been a steady, unspectacular pitcher who usually gets through four innings without needing too much assistance, but he only made it two innings in before three earned runs meant the Red Sox began to reach into the bullpen before they squandered what the offense had built. At least this time, Hill should be ready to go and properly motivated to bounce back: his ERA jumped a full point off that one start against Texas.

Betting Trends

  • The Red Sox are 6-0 in their past six games.
  • The Red Sox are 5-1 in their past six games as an underdog.
  • The White Sox are 8-3 in their past 11 against a team with a losing record.
  • The White Sox are 7-1 in their past eight Game 2s of a series.
  • The over has cashed in five straight Boston games.
  • The over is 4-1-2 in the Red Sox’s past seven road games.
  • The under is 5-1-1 in the White Sox’ past seven Game 2s of a series.
  • The under is 19-6-1 in the White Sox’s last 26 home games against a left-handed starter.
  • The Red Sox are 5-2 in their past seven meetings in Chicago.
  • The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings between the teams.

Weather Report

The weather could be a bit humid, as there’s a 60% chance of rain on a 68-degree night in Chicago. Wind won’t help either, with the wind blowing in from left-center field and making it harder to get the ball into the air. These teams hit the ball well enough that it should not matter, but it is a factor to keep in mind.

Dan’s Pick

The other shoe is going to drop with Boston eventually, but the Red Sox have played so well over the past week that it’s difficult to see it happening here. Instead, I think this is a perfect time to jump on the total before the number gets too high. I don’t buy that the White Sox will hold Boston in check, especially after going deep into the bullpen in the first game of this set.
Given that Boston is the healthier team and is whacking the ball, I have to go with the value here and take the Red Sox. Note: It’s a great day to take five minutes to save yourself thousands of dollars in wasted risk by making the switch to -105 odds at BetAnySports Sportsbook! Make the switch! You’ll be so glad you did!

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