Yankees vs. Blue Jays Moneyline Pick

by | May 2, 2022 | mlb

New York Yankees (16-6) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (15-8)

When: 7:07 p.m., Monday, May 2

Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto

Moneyline: NYY -120/TOR +100

Runline: Yankees -1.5/Blue Jays +1.5

Total: 8.5

(Read about Dimelines >>>)

Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery (0-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHP vs. Ross Stripling (0-0, 3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)

Together as One

The Yankees have at least solved one of their biggest issues before this series, as they confirmed that everyone on their roster has now met the vaccine requirements needed to enter Canada. In 2021, this wasn’t an issue because the Blue Jays played the majority of their home games in either Dunedin, Fla., Or Buffalo, N.Y., eliminating the need to cross an international border. The Yankees didn’t have to play the Blue Jays in Toronto until Sept. 28, at which time the Canadian government allowed an exception for athletes to enter Canada without proof of vaccination.

This year, Canada’s government refused to extend that projection, so any unvaccinated player on an American team must miss the series when his team visits the Blue Jays. Only players who are considered fully vaccinated may enter Canada, and the Yankees’ remaining holdouts (believed to be Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo) were apparently vaccinated in time to meet Canada’s requirements and play on Monday night.
Playing this series without them could have devastated New York’s lineup, as Rizzo and Judge are responsible for 31 of the Yankees’ 106 runs and 17 of 31 home runs. With Toronto’s lineup capable of putting up huge numbers, playing this series without its two biggest power threats could have spelled disaster for the Yankees.

Are They Hot?

There’s no question that winning 11 out of 12 games is an accomplishment no matter who you’re playing against. But that said, the Yankees’ opposition has been pretty suspect to this point in the season. New York’s past four series were against Detroit, Kansas City, Baltimore, and Cleveland, none of whom have a winning record this season. Only the Guardians are even close to .500, which begs the question of whether the Yankees are playing good baseball or just beating up on bad teams.

Of course, there’s nothing wrong with beating bad teams, especially given that the margin of a division race is often decided by how many times you can avoid losing to a team that isn’t a contender. But while the Yankees were pounding the AL’s also-rans, the Blue Jays were dealing with tough challenges from the likes of Houston and Boston, both of whom are expected to be in the playoff race. The only truly bad team Toronto has seen this season is Texas, making the Jays’ 15-8 mark look more impressive than the 16-6 mark of the Yankees.

Overestimation

Here’s a great example of why it’s often a good idea to go the other direction of where the public wants to go: Vegas is excellent at figuring out how to entice the public to separate itself from its money. A great example is the Blue Jays, who everyone likes to bet the over on because of all of their talented hitters.
The Jays do have a lot of talented hitters, and they rank seventh in the American League with 92 runs scored. But they’re still 8-15 to the under because the books keep setting the Jays one run too high and letting the public’s exuberance to bet an “Over” do the work for them. Toronto actually plays solid defense and has reliable pitching, which means the Jays are likely to come in under their lofty totals. For the year, Toronto both scores and gives up an average of four runs per game, which means an 8.5 total should fall under more often than not. But the public sees 8.5 and the Blue Jays and acts accordingly, putting some value on another under play.

Betting Trends

  • The Yankees are 5-1 in their past six as a road favorite.
  • The Yankees are 13-3 in their past 16 games as a favorite.
  • The Blue Jays are 6-1 in their past seven Monday games.
  • The Blue Jays are 5-1 in their past six games against the AL East.
  • The under is 12-3 in the Yankees’ past 15 Monday games.
  • The under is 4-0 in the Yankees’ past four road games against a right-handed starter.
  • The under is 18-7-1 in Toronto’s last 26 games as an underdog.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Blue Jays’ past five games overall.
  • The Yankees have won five of six matchups with the Blue Jays as the host.
  • The under is 4-1 in the teams’ past five meetings.

Weather Report

Temperatures sitting at 48 degrees at first pitch means that the Jays will almost certainly opt to play this game indoors.

Dan’s Pick

The Yankees will at least have their full team on hand to face the Blue Jays, but I’m not sure it will matter in this situation. Toronto has looked better and played better opponents than New York has this season, and I think the experience should help the Jays come up with a strong start to this series.
The value lies with Toronto here. I’m taking the Jays on the Moneyline. Question: Do you bet games live-in-progress? If so, have you checked out Bovada Sportsbook? I can CONFIDENTLY say that they’re a better sportsbook than whowever you’re using. They’ve really perfected the process and give the player the best of everything. Check this out… You get a 50% real cash bonus up to $250, rebates on ALL your bets; win, lose or draw, the best live betting platform format on the web and FAST payouts. Check’em out!

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