Race: Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Date: Sunday, September 13, 2025
Track: Bristol Motor Speedway
Time: 7:30pm ET
Channel: Bristol Motor Speedway
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Denny Hamlin had some typical arrogance after capturing his season-best 5th victory at Illinois this weekend. He casually encouraged the booing crowd to either “join the bandwagon or get run over by it”. I’d really expect no less. It’s part of his persona. The victory was a good one for him, also being the 200th victory for Toyota. It locks him into the Round of 12 and keeps his championship hopes alive in a 20-year career span that has seen the championship elude him every time. Maybe this will be the year.
The race saw many different strategies across the board and in the pit boxes, but ultimately, the attempt to stretch fuel burned many drivers when Ty Dillon brought out the 10th and final caution on lap 209. For Hamlin, Brad Keselowski was the only concern, but he managed to thwart him off relatively easily on the lap 216 restart. Hamlin held it the rest of the way, winning with a margin of over 1.6 seconds. There was no catching him after that pass. Chase Briscoe also had another great weekend. Although he couldn’t capture another win, he finished 2nd after a struggle with a tire on pit road, but it didn’t matter. He’s locked into the next round already. Other playoff drivers had good showings as well, with Elliott, Blaney, and Logano rounding out the top 5 positions.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers face their final race in the Round of 16, leaving 4 drivers behind when all is said and done. What better place to make that determination than Bristol?! This short track always gives us some sort of dispute. When it’s all on the line, the 0.533 concrete oval with 24-28 degrees of banking in the turns and 4-8 degrees of banking on the straights creates some strife until the end. With this being a somewhat challenging track and one that can easily create chaos, it’s a fitting place to round out the first of the playoff rounds. This track tends to be a place where position is king. Drivers have been able to ride, in recent years, without much trouble, but must get to the front of the pack. Like Martinsville, it’s easy to get lapped, but it’s harder than Martinsville to actually get your lap back.
Odds and Value Picks
Who will take the win this weekend? Here’s a look at your potential winners heading into the final race in the Round of 16:
Winner: Joey Logano (+2500)
Logano, well, he’s got to do something, and Bristol is the place for him to make a statement. He’s got 2 wins in his 30 starts. That’s not the most impressive number, but he’s also got 6 top 5s and 10 top 10s. He’s been running up front in most of the races recently, and he’s got to make a move. He’s teetering on not making it to the next playoff round. This should be a very solid opportunity for a win for Logano.
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Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski (+3500)
Keselowski is another guy to watch. Brad has a better record than Logano if I’m being honest. He’s got 3 wins in 28 starts with 7 top 5 finishes. With his recent strength on the track, Keselowski might surprise us all this weekend. He hasn’t had the season he’d hoped for, but these last few weeks are an opportunity to finish strong. Look for Brad to be there at the end this weekend.
Dark Horse: Ty Gibbs (+1800)
You can see that he’s actually rated higher than Keselowski for this weekend, but he doesn’t have as much experience and fewer starts across the board. In 5 starts, he’s got 2 top 5 finishes and 3 top 10 finishes. He’s figuring out the short tracks, and he’s really got nothing to lose this weekend. Gibbs will likely make some waves.
Let’s take a peek at where the drivers stand after Darlington:
- Denny Hamlin
- Chase Briscoe
- Kyle Larson
- Bubba Wallace
- Ryan Blaney
- William Byron
- Tyler Reddick
- Christopher Bell
- Chase Elliott
- Joey Logano
- Ross Chastain
- Austin Cindric
- Austin Dillon
- Shane van Gisbergen
- Alex Bowman
- Josh Berry
Dillon, Gisbergen, Bowman, and Berry are below the cut line, but honestly, anyone from Christopher Bell down is statistically in danger. I think that we are going to see more carnage than normal at Bristol this weekend. It’s a race weekend with a cutoff for 16 guys, and another race weekend where the other 24 want to just make a win before the year is over. Stay tuned for an amazing Saturday night of racing under the lights to close out the Round of 16 and lock in our final 12 drivers.
