NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Prediction: Larson Favored at Las Vegas

by | Mar 10, 2026 | nascar

2026 Pennzoil 400 Race Predictions

Ms. V breaks down the high-speed action at Las Vegas Motor Speedway as Kyle Larson looks to reclaim his desert throne. Discover her top bets for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400.

Race: Pennzoil 400 Presented by Jiffy Lube

Date: Sunday, March 15, 2026
Track: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Time: 4pm ET
Channel: FS1

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Ryan Blaney took the win over second-place finisher Christopher Bell and third-place driver Kyle Larson by a margin of 0.399 seconds to win Sunday’s race at Phoenix Raceway. For a minute, I think we were all convinced that Tyler Reddick was going to make it four in a row, but Blaney’s perseverance fought back and allowed him to take the checkered flag.

Blaney had more than one error on pit road, causing him to fall to the rear of the field twice, but he didn’t let that get to him. That’s what makes him great. Blaney never gave up and won the mental game in the long run. He managed to rally back to restart on the second row after a final stop for tires with 12 laps to go. That track position was the key to the win. The call for two tires is what won him the race.

For Blaney’s teammate, Christopher Bell, it was a valiant effort. He was the first of the pack to take four tires, restarting in 8th place, but it just wasn’t enough time to catch Blaney when it came down to the wire. That clean air and two tires were all Blaney needed to overcome race leader Ty Gibbs and to hold off Bell, who led the most laps of the day.

Kyle Larson had a good car all day to finish third, followed by Ty Gibbs and Denny Hamlin to round out the top five spots. Bubba Wallace, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Michael McDowell, and Erik Jones wrapped up the top ten spots.

It was one of those days for Reddick where he just couldn’t break around a fifth-place run. He was kind of stuck there for most of the day. It was still a respectable finish, with Reddick still solidly at the top of the leaderboard.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, the teams are heading to none other than Las Vegas Motor Speedway. This is a solid intermediate track with a lot of speed and intensity.

Las Vegas is a 1.5-mile asphalt tri-oval with 20 degrees of banking in the turns and 9 degrees on the straights. It’s a place where track position rules. Getting to the front and staying there will be the biggest factor in finishing position.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner, there are several drivers that are solid, and the Penske garage is trying to give us some hints. However, I think that we’re going to see a battle from the Hendrick guys this weekend as well.

Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race:

Winner: Kyle Larson (+450)

Larson has the best average finish in both recent races and all-time starts. He has three wins here and has 819 laps led on the books. In 19 career starts, he has the best average starting position at around 7th. If he can qualify well, expect to see Larson on his way to victory lane on Sunday.

Mid-Range Pick: Kyle Busch (+5000)

It still feels weird to have Kyle on any sort of B list, but he’s struggled in the last few years in consistency and performance. If he can bring a decent car and stay out of trouble, his experience in 29 starts will play in his favor. He has a win here, along with 332 laps led. Busch needs a win. This could be his weekend.

Dark Horse: Daniel Suarez (+6000)

In his last six starts on this track, Suarez has led 84 laps and come away with two top-five runs. He’s been consistently at the front of the field in some capacity in almost every race this season so far. Suarez is hungry and will come to play on Sunday.

Many drivers had some major gains in the points after Sunday’s race at Phoenix, most notably Christopher Bell, coming from 24th all the way up to 6th. It just goes to show that points are fluid and anything can change.

Let’s take a look at your current top 16 after Sunday:

  1. Tyler Reddick
  2. Ryan Blaney
  3. Bubba Wallace
  4. Chase Elliott
  5. Shane Van Gisbergen
  6. Christopher Bell
  7. Joey Logano
  8. Michael McDowell
  9. Chris Buescher
  10. Kyle Larson
  11. William Byron
  12. Denny Hamlin
  13. AJ Allmendinger
  14. Carson Hocevar
  15. Ty Gibbs
  16. Brad Keselowski

Hamlin made some big moves, moving up 11 spots. Suarez fell after last weekend. It was his first rough weekend, so he’ll be looking to make some gains. Guys like Noah Gragson also had some rough patches, so we’ll have to see how things play out at the first real intermediate track of the year.

Stay tuned for a great weekend of racing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway!