The 16-12 Philadelphia 76ers travel to Chicago to face a Bulls team riding a four-game winning streak. Bryan Bash breaks down why Philadelphia’s 7-4 road record and Tyrese Maxey’s 31.0 PPG average make the 76ers a dangerous road underdog in this Eastern Conference clash.
The Setup: Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are laying a point at home against a 76ers squad that just got run over by Brooklyn, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Chicago’s riding a four-game win streak, they just clawed back from 18 down in Atlanta, and they’re getting Philadelphia on the second night of a back-to-back. The market’s telling you to lay the chalk with the hot home team.
Here’s the thing — once you dig into what these teams actually do on a possession-by-possession basis, that one-point cushion starts to look like a gift for the road dog. The 76ers are 7-4 away from home this season, and while Kelly Oubre Jr. being out hurts their depth, Tyrese Maxey is averaging 31.0 points and 6.9 assists per game. That’s not a guy who folds in a scheduling spot. Chicago’s 7-6 at the United Center, which is fine, but it’s not the kind of home dominance that justifies making them a favorite against a team with a better road record.
Let me walk you through why this line exists, and more importantly, why I think it’s begging you to take the wrong side.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 26, 2025, 7:30 ET
Venue: United Center
Spread: Chicago Bulls -1.0 (-110) | Philadelphia 76ers +1.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Bulls -116 | 76ers -105
Total: 239.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving Chicago a point because they’ve won four straight, they’re at home, and Philadelphia’s playing on zero rest after getting embarrassed by Brooklyn. The recency bias is loud here — the Bulls just beat Atlanta in a game where Josh Giddey posted 19 points, 15 assists, and 11 rebounds, and Coby White hit the game-winning free throw with 1.9 seconds left. That’s the kind of narrative that moves numbers.
But here’s what the line isn’t accounting for: Philadelphia’s road performance has been legitimately strong all season. At 7-4 away from home, they’re actually better on the road than Chicago is at the United Center. The 76ers are 16-12 overall and sitting fifth in the East, while the Bulls are 14-15 and clinging to the 10-seed. The talent gap here is real, even with Oubre sidelined.
The other piece that’s baked into this number is the back-to-back factor. Yes, Philadelphia played Tuesday night. But the Nets game was at home, so there’s no travel fatigue, and this is a team that’s had to manage Joel Embiid’s minutes all season anyway. They’re built to play in rotation-heavy spots. The market’s overvaluing the schedule angle and undervaluing the talent and efficiency edge Philadelphia brings into this matchup.
Philadelphia 76ers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The 76ers’ offense runs through Tyrese Maxey, and that’s not changing just because they’re on a back-to-back. Maxey’s 31.0 points per game leads this team by a mile, and his ability to create off the dribble and collapse defenses is exactly what Chicago struggles to contain. The Bulls don’t have a perimeter stopper who can stay in front of him for 35 minutes, and that’s going to be a problem all night.
Losing Kelly Oubre Jr. does hurt — he’s been a steady 16.8 points and 5.1 boards per game — but the 76ers have enough secondary scoring to compensate. Joel Embiid’s averaging 21.0 points and 6.6 rebounds, and while his usage is down this year, he’s still a matchup nightmare for Nikola Vucevic on both ends. Embiid’s mobility and rim protection give Philadelphia an advantage in the halfcourt that Chicago can’t replicate.
The real strength here is Philadelphia’s ability to win on the road. A 7-4 record away from home isn’t luck — it’s a sign of a team that travels well, stays disciplined, and doesn’t get rattled by hostile environments. The United Center isn’t exactly a fortress this year, and the 76ers have shown they can execute in these spots.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown: The Other Side
Chicago’s four-game win streak is impressive, but let’s be clear about what it actually is: they beat Atlanta by three on a late free throw, and they’ve been scrapping their way through close games. Coby White’s been excellent at 21.4 points and 5.1 assists per game, and Josh Giddey’s all-around production — 20.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, 9.1 assists — gives them a legitimate secondary playmaker. That’s a nice foundation.
But the problem is depth and defensive consistency. Nikola Vucevic is averaging 16.1 points and 9.2 rebounds, but he’s not a guy who can protect the rim or switch onto Maxey in pick-and-roll situations. When Philadelphia spreads the floor and puts Embiid in the middle, Chicago’s going to have a hard time keeping them out of the paint without fouling.
The other issue is that 7-6 home record. That’s not a dominant home team — that’s a team that’s slightly better than .500 at the United Center. When you’re laying a point against a team with a better road record than your home record, you need a significant talent or matchup edge. Chicago doesn’t have that here.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the halfcourt, and that’s where Philadelphia has the edge. The 76ers can slow the pace down, feed Embiid in the post, and let Maxey create advantages in isolation. Chicago wants to push tempo and get out in transition, but Philadelphia’s disciplined enough to get back and force them into halfcourt sets. When that happens, the Bulls don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up.
The other key is how Chicago defends Maxey. If they try to switch everything, he’s going to hunt mismatches and get to the rim. If they go over screens and try to stay attached, he’ll pull up from three or find Embiid rolling to the basket. There’s no clean answer, and that’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Philadelphia’s got the better offense, the better road record, and the better star player. Chicago’s got home court and momentum, but momentum doesn’t cover spreads when the talent gap is this wide. When you do the math over 96 possessions, Philadelphia’s ability to execute in the halfcourt and control the pace gives them the edge to win this game outright or keep it within a possession.
The main risk here is the back-to-back factor. If Philadelphia comes out flat in the first quarter and lets Chicago build an early lead, that could change the complexion of the game. But even accounting for the schedule spot, I don’t see how Chicago’s one-point advantage at home holds up against a team that’s been one of the best road performers in the league.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Philadelphia 76ers +1.0 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Philadelphia’s 7-4 on the road, Chicago’s 7-6 at home, and the 76ers have the better player, the better offense, and the better ability to control pace. Maxey’s going to get his, Embiid’s going to be a problem in the post, and Chicago doesn’t have the defensive personnel to slow them down consistently.
The back-to-back is real, but it’s not enough to flip the talent gap. The 76ers are the better team, they’re getting a point, and the moneyline at -105 is essentially a pick’em. I’ll take the road dog with the better record and the better star. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, and I expect Philadelphia to either win this game outright or keep it close enough to cash the ticket.
Lay the hook with Philly and trust the road form. This is the right side.
