RBD leans on his T1 system in this late-season matchup, breaking down betting angles, trends, and key numbers driving tonight’s prediction.
Brooklyn at Golden State
NBA Pick and Analysis
While doing yesterday’s handicapping I noticed that we’re about 2 weeks/10 games away from the end of the NBA regular season. After banking a unit on the Magic last night I’m sitting at 29-19. That’s a very solid 60%, at almost 50 games bet.
This means that at my current rate of play, 4-5 bets per week, even a total collapse won’t prevent me from finishing the season with a profit. A job well done, especially considering I don’t like the sport and don’t watch it (which removes the edge a handicapper gains by becoming familiar with teams and their coaches.)
I’m going to be a little more conservative with my money over these next two weeks, looking to hold on to the profit I’ve made while trying to add a little to it before the last game is played.
And I have one today that I can’t resist, in one of my systems that’s responsible for much of my profit – the T1 Over.
Current record for T1 Overs sits at 47-29. That’s a remarkable 62% with more than 75 games charted.
Normally I’d be guarding against continuing to use the play, expecting Reversion Towards the Mean to set in. But tonight’s spot is near perfection so there’s no way I can’t bet it.
T1 says Brooklyn at Golden State goes Over. Not only do I have the 62% edge league-wide stat working for me in this one, but I also have some dynamite team specific numbers.
Brooklyn has been in the T1 Over spot nine times. Their record is 8-1.
Golden State has been in this spot seven times. Their record is 6-1.
Like I said, near perfection. On BOTH teams.
And the number is moving in my favor. It opened at 220 and is down to 215′. The reason for this is because both teams are missing key players, especially Golden State, where Moses Moody joined the rest of the regulars on the IR list.
But the injuries don’t seem to matter. Golden State is 4-1 Ov/Un in their last five games, and at tonight’s number of 215 they’re 5-0.
Brooklyn is just 2-3 Ov /Un in their last five. Using 215 as the number, the record is the same, 2-3, so I’m going to need most of my scoring to come from Golden State tonight.
And I expect a top effort from the Warriors as they’re fighting for the ninth spot in the play-in tournament, leaving no room for slip ups against one of the worst teams in the league.
Brooklyn has lost eight in a row and nine of their last 10 Rd games. In the current losing streak they’re getting beat by an average of 18 PPG. Four of the eight losses have been by more than tonight’s spread, GS -11′.
Hmmm.
A possible add-on play on the Warriors later today?
Check the forum for updates!
Update: The line stopped dropping and is starting to rise. It’s now at 217.
My play:
Brook/GS Ov 217
Recap: 1-0
Record: 29-19
Review: I used my B2B stats to back the Magic as Double Digit Dogs in Cleveland.
Got +10′.
They lost by 5.
NEXT!
Mark Your Calendar
Last night, Orlando was in Game two of B2B’s. They covered the spread again, making them 8-4 ATS, 67% in Game two’s.
And, they were Dogs. As Dogs in Game two Orlando is now 4-1, 80%.
They have one game left in this spot.
They play on April 5th and then again on April 6th. The second game is at Detroit where they will be underdogs again.
Mark your calendar.
