The Setup: Bucks at Grizzlies
Memphis is laying 5.5 points at FedExForum on Friday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. The Grizzlies are home, sitting at 14-16 but trending upward after Santi Aldama’s career night in Utah. The Bucks are 12-18, playing their eighth straight without Giannis Antetokounmpo, and limping in at 4-10 on the road. The market sees a home favorite with momentum against a depleted road team.
Here’s the thing — Milwaukee just beat Indiana 111-94 without their superstar, getting 24 points from Kevin Porter Jr. and 23 from Ryan Rollins. That’s not a fluke performance. That’s a rotation that’s learned how to function without Giannis over seven games. Meanwhile, Memphis might be without Ja Morant (questionable, ankle) and is definitely missing Vince Williams Jr. This isn’t the mismatch the line suggests once you account for how these rosters actually match up.
Let me walk you through why this line exists — and why I think there’s value on the other side.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 26, 2025, 8:00 ET
Venue: FedExForum
Spread: Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 (-110) | Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Grizzlies -210 | Bucks +168
Total: 228.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market built this 5.5-point spread around three assumptions: home court advantage, Milwaukee’s road struggles, and the absence of Giannis. Fair enough. The Bucks are 4-10 away from home, and losing a player averaging 28.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 6.1 assists should crater your chances. Memphis gets roughly 2.5 points for home court, add another 2-3 for the talent gap without Giannis, and you land right around this number.
But here’s what the line doesn’t fully account for: Milwaukee has played seven consecutive games without Antetokounmpo heading into this matchup. That’s not a team scrambling to adjust anymore — that’s a team that’s found its identity. Porter Jr. is averaging 20.4 points and 7.5 assists on the season, and Rollins is chipping in 17.2 points per game. Against Indiana, they combined for 47 points and controlled the pace.
On the Memphis side, Ja Morant’s status is critical. He’s averaging 17.7 points and 7.5 assists, and if he sits, that’s a massive hit to Memphis’s playmaking and pace. Jaren Jackson Jr. (17.8 PPG) and Aldama (14.4 PPG) can score, but neither creates offense for others the way Morant does. Vince Williams Jr. is already out, which thins their perimeter defense. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
Milwaukee Bucks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Bucks without Giannis aren’t the same team, but they’re not helpless. Porter Jr. has stepped into a primary ball-handler role and is distributing at a high level. Rollins has become a legitimate scoring threat. Kyle Kuzma added 15 points in the Indiana win, and Bobby Portis grabbed nine rebounds while scoring 14. That’s four guys contributing meaningfully, and it’s enough to stay competitive.
The issue is still their road record — 4-10 is brutal. But context matters. Milwaukee is 8-8 at home, which tells me they’re not a bad team, they’re just inconsistent away from Fiserv Forum. In a game where Memphis might be without Morant and is definitely thin on the perimeter, Milwaukee’s guard play could keep this closer than expected.
Gary Trent Jr. is questionable (calf), but even if he sits, the Bucks have enough depth in the backcourt to manage. Porter and Rollins have carried the load for a week straight — they’re not going to suddenly fall apart in Memphis.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Memphis sits at 14-16, ninth in the West, and their home record of 6-8 isn’t exactly intimidating. They just put up 137 points in Utah behind Aldama’s 37-point, seven-three-pointer explosion, but that’s not a sustainable offensive output. Jaren Jackson Jr. added 21 points, but the Grizzlies needed a career night from Aldama to get there.
If Morant plays, Memphis has a legitimate advantage in pace and playmaking. But if he sits — and he’s questionable — this offense loses its engine. Aldama, Jackson, and GG Jackson II (18 points vs. Utah) can all score, but none of them run an offense. Cam Spencer had a career-high in assists in that Utah game, but asking him to replicate Morant’s creation is a stretch.
Defensively, Memphis is missing Vince Williams Jr., who’s a key perimeter stopper. That’s a problem against Porter and Rollins, who are both playing with confidence and rhythm. The Grizzlies are home, but 6-8 at FedExForum doesn’t scream dominant home-court advantage.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to two things: Ja Morant’s availability and Milwaukee’s ability to control pace. If Morant sits, Memphis loses its primary creator and the game slows down significantly. That favors Milwaukee, who’s been playing methodical, half-court basketball without Giannis. Porter and Rollins thrive in that environment — they’re not trying to run-and-gun, they’re picking apart defenses in the half-court.
Even if Morant plays, I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Milwaukee just held Indiana to 94 points and controlled possessions. Memphis put up 137 in Utah, but that was an outlier performance fueled by Aldama’s career night. Over a typical 96-100 possession game, I don’t see Memphis pulling away by six or more unless Milwaukee collapses defensively.
The Grizzlies’ home splits aren’t strong enough to justify this number. They’re 6-8 at FedExForum, and Milwaukee has shown over seven games that they can compete without their best player. Once you dig into the matchup data, this feels like a 3-4 point game, not a 5.5-point spread.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m backing Milwaukee to keep this within the number. The Bucks have played seven straight without Giannis and just dominated Indiana by 17 points. Porter and Rollins are locked in, and Memphis is dealing with its own injury issues. If Morant sits, this line should be closer to 3. Even if he plays, I don’t trust Memphis to cover 5.5 at home given their 6-8 record at FedExForum.
The main risk here is Memphis catching fire like they did in Utah, but that was a career night from Aldama in a pace-up environment. This game projects slower, and Milwaukee has the backcourt depth to stay competitive. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Give me the Bucks plus the points.
