Our comprehensive betting preview for Bulls vs. Celtics examines the clash between Boston’s three-headed attack and Chicago’s depleted backcourt. Dive in for the official Best Bet and key handicapping data you need before the 7:30 PM ET tip-off.
The Setup: Bulls at Celtics
The Boston Celtics are laying 11.5 points at TD Garden on Monday night against a Chicago Bulls team that just got rolled at home by Charlotte. On the surface, this number makes sense — Boston’s 22-12 and riding high off Jaylen Brown’s 50-piece in LA, while the Bulls sit at 17-18 and are dealing with some real rotation issues. But here’s the thing: double-digit spreads require more than just talent gaps. They require execution over 96 possessions, and they require the favorite to maintain efficiency even when the other team slows things down or makes adjustments.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I actually think it’s still playable. The Celtics are averaging 30.1 points per game from Jaylen Brown alone this season, and they’ve got scoring depth with Derrick White at 18.7 and Payton Pritchard chipping in 16.8. Meanwhile, Chicago is potentially without Coby White, who’s questionable with a calf issue and averaging 19.2 points per game. When you factor in that the Bulls are also missing Jalen Smith and Trentyn Flowers, the rotation math starts tilting heavily toward Boston’s ability to maintain separation.
The thesis here is straightforward: Boston’s offensive efficiency and depth should create enough separation to cover 11.5, especially with Chicago’s backcourt compromised and their defense struggling to contain elite wing scoring. That’s not speculation — that’s what the personnel matchup tells us.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 5, 2026, 7:30 ET
Venue: TD Garden
Spread: Boston Celtics -11.5 (-110) | Chicago Bulls +11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Celtics -594 | Bulls +416
Total: Over/Under 235.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on 11.5 for a reason, and it’s not just about Boston being the better team. The Celtics are 10-5 at home, but more importantly, they’re coming off a game where Brown went for 50 and White added 29 in a 146-point explosion against the Clippers. That offensive ceiling is real, and it’s what creates these larger spreads.
On the other side, Chicago just lost at home to a Hornets team that had dropped five of six. The Bulls allowed 112 points and couldn’t generate enough offense down the stretch, which speaks to their current form. When you factor in that Coby White is questionable and averaging 19.2 points and 4.7 assists per game, you’re looking at a potential 20-25 point swing in offensive creation if he sits or plays limited minutes.
The moneyline at -594 tells you everything about win probability — the market expects Boston to win this game comfortably. The question is whether they win by 12 or more, and that’s where rotation depth becomes critical. Josh Giddey is putting up solid numbers for Chicago at 19.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 9.0 assists, but he’s going to have his hands full trying to orchestrate against Boston’s defensive length. Nikola Vucevic at 16.5 and 8.9 boards gives them some interior presence, but without Smith available, their frontcourt depth takes a hit.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests only if Chicago can slow the pace dramatically and keep possessions in the 90-92 range. But Boston’s been comfortable playing at multiple tempos, and with Brown averaging over 30 per game, they’ve got the individual firepower to break through even in slower settings.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Bulls come in at 17-18 overall and 7-9 on the road, which immediately tells you they’re a below-average team away from home. Their offensive structure relies heavily on three players: Giddey, White, and Vucevic. All three are averaging between 16.5 and 19.2 points per game, which means they’ve got balanced scoring but no true go-to closer in crunch time.
Here’s where it gets problematic: if Coby White sits, Chicago loses their most dynamic perimeter scorer and a guy who creates 4.7 assists per game. That forces more creation onto Giddey, who’s talented but also turnover-prone when he’s asked to carry too much offensive load. Vucevic gives them steady production in the paint, but he’s not a guy who’s going to dominate against Boston’s size and athleticism.
The Bulls are also without Jalen Smith and Trentyn Flowers, which thins out their rotation significantly. When you’re playing in Boston on a Monday night and you’re down two rotation pieces plus potentially your second-leading scorer, the margin for error disappears. Chicago needs everything to go right — hot shooting, Boston going cold, favorable officiating — to stay within 11.5. That’s not a recipe I’m betting on.
Boston Celtics Breakdown: The Other Side
Boston’s sitting at 22-12 and just put up 146 points in their last game. Jaylen Brown is playing at an MVP-caliber level with 30.1 points per game, and the scary part for opponents is that he’s not even the only offensive weapon. Derrick White at 18.7 and Payton Pritchard at 16.8 give them multiple guys who can get you 20 on any given night.
The key here is depth and versatility. Even without Jayson Tatum (who’s out for the season with an Achilles injury), this Celtics team has enough offensive firepower to overwhelm most opponents, especially at home where they’re 10-5. The fact that they can get production from multiple positions means they’re not overly reliant on one player having a monster game to cover spreads.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: Boston’s got three guys averaging 16+ points per game, and they’re playing at home against a Bulls team that’s compromised at multiple positions. When you do the math over 96-98 possessions, Boston should have enough offensive possessions where they’re generating 1.10+ points per trip to create separation. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in two areas: perimeter defense and transition opportunities. Chicago’s backcourt is already questionable with White’s status up in the air, and they’re going up against a Boston team that thrives on creating turnovers and converting them into easy baskets. Brown’s ability to score at all three levels means Chicago can’t just pack the paint and dare Boston to shoot — they have to respect the perimeter, which opens up driving lanes and kick-out opportunities.
Once you dig into the matchup data, the personnel advantage is stark. Giddey is a good player, but he’s not stopping Brown or White on the other end. Vucevic is solid, but he’s not quick enough to hedge and recover against Boston’s ball movement. The Bulls’ best chance is to grind this into an ugly, low-possession game and hope Boston goes cold from three. But even then, Boston’s got enough offensive weapons to score in the half-court.
The total is set at 235.0, which suggests the market expects a moderately paced game with both teams scoring in the 110-125 range. I actually think Boston could push 120+ if they get out in transition, and Chicago’s going to struggle to keep pace without their full complement of scorers. When you factor in that Boston just dropped 146 in their last game and their offensive rhythm is clicking, the path to covering 11.5 becomes clearer.
The main risk here is Chicago playing inspired basketball and keeping it close through three quarters, then Boston pulling away late but not covering. That’s always a risk with double-digit spreads. But given the personnel mismatches and Boston’s home-court advantage, I’m comfortable laying the points.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Boston Celtics -11.5 (-110) for 2 units. This line accounts for Boston’s talent advantage, but I don’t think it fully captures how compromised Chicago’s rotation is right now. Without Coby White (or with him limited), Chicago loses 19.2 points and nearly 5 assists per game. That’s a massive hole to fill against a Celtics team that’s scoring 30+ from Brown alone.
The math works over 96 possessions: Boston should generate enough high-efficiency looks to build a lead in the first half, and Chicago doesn’t have the firepower to mount a sustained comeback. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for Chicago. The Bulls are 7-9 on the road, they’re banged up, and they’re facing a Celtics team that just hung 146 on a Western Conference opponent.
The main risk is Boston cruising and taking their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter, but with Brown playing at this level and the Celtics still fighting for playoff seeding, I expect them to stay aggressive. Lay the points with Boston and expect a comfortable double-digit win at TD Garden.
