Bash sees a Bulls team limping into LA with half a roster missing, facing a Clippers squad that just hung 153 on Minnesota. The spread looks steep, but the matchup math tells a different story when you account for Chicago’s depleted backcourt.
The Setup: Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are laying 12.5 points at home against a Bulls team that’s running on fumes. Chicago just got a career night from Matas Buzelis in overtime against Golden State, but that W came against a Warriors squad missing key pieces. Now they’re flying cross-country on short rest to face a Clippers team that just dropped 153 on Minnesota with Kawhi Leonard going for 45.
The line opened at Clippers -12.5, and I’m looking at a Bulls roster that’s down six bodies—including Anfernee Simons, Collin Sexton, Patrick Williams, and Isaac Okoro. That’s four rotation pieces who can handle the ball and create offense. Meanwhile, LA just got done embarrassing the Timberwolves and sits at 33-32, trying to stay in that eighth seed with a five-game homestand underway.
The total sits at 235, which feels rich given the pace dynamics here. The Clippers play at 97.0 possessions per game—one of the slowest tempos in the league. Chicago pushes it harder at 102.5, but with this many bodies missing, I’m not sure they have the depth to sustain that.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- When: March 13, 2026, 10:30 ET
- Where: Intuit Dome
- TV: Check local listings
- Spread: Clippers -12.5 (-115) | Bulls +12.5 (-105)
- Total: 235.0 (Over -110 / Under -110)
- Moneyline: Clippers -750 | Bulls +500
Why This Line Exists
The market sees what I see: a talent mismatch compounded by availability. Chicago is 11-21 on the road with a -4.5 net rating on the season. They’re down Sexton, Simons, Williams, and Okoro—that’s four guys who combine for real minutes and scoring punch. Josh Giddey just posted a triple-double, and Buzelis went nuclear for 41, but those performances came in a game where Jalen Smith had to hit two free throws with 1.4 seconds left just to force overtime.
LA, meanwhile, is 18-13 at home and just put together their third straight win. Kawhi is cooking—45 points on 15-of-20 shooting against Minnesota. Bennedict Mathurin added 22, and Darius Garland hit five threes for 21 points. The Clippers are rolling, and they’re doing it at home where they protect the Intuit Dome.
The 12.5-point spread reflects the efficiency gap and the injury situation. The projection sits at Clippers by 4.6 points, but that number doesn’t fully capture how thin Chicago’s backcourt is right now. Without Sexton and Simons, the Bulls are leaning heavily on Giddey and Tre Jones to create everything. That’s a lot of pressure against a Clippers defense that ranks 115.5 in defensive rating.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown
The Bulls are 27-39 and playing out the string. They score 115.9 per game with a 112.4 offensive rating, but their defensive rating sits at 116.9—bottom-third stuff. On the road, they’re 11-21, and the injuries have gutted their rotation depth.
Giddey is the engine here, averaging 17.9 points, 8.4 boards, and 8.8 assists. He just went for 21-17-13 in the win over Golden State. Buzelis had the career night with 41, but he’s a 15.9 PPG guy on the season—that was an outlier performance. Tre Jones gives them 12.7 and 5.5 assists, but he’s shooting 31.5% from three, so the Clippers can sag off him.
The real issue is who’s missing. Sexton was giving them 14.6 per game on 49% shooting. Simons added 14.3. Williams and Okoro provided wing defense and secondary creation. Without those four, Chicago is running a seven-man rotation with limited shooting and ball-handling. That’s a problem against a team that can switch and pressure the ball.
Los Angeles Clippers Breakdown
The Clippers are 33-32 and clawing their way back to .500 after a brutal 6-21 start. They’re 18-13 at home, and they just hung 153 on Minnesota—their highest point total of the season. Kawhi is in MVP form, averaging 28.3 points on 50.3% shooting and 38% from three. He’s the best player on the floor by a mile in this matchup.
Mathurin gives them 18.3 per game, and Garland—who they picked up at the deadline—adds 17.9 and 6.7 assists. John Collins is out with a neck strain, but the Clippers have enough firepower to cover that loss. Derrick Jones Jr. provides wing defense and transition scoring at 11.3 per game.
The Clippers rank 116.3 in offensive rating and 115.5 in defensive rating, giving them a +0.8 net rating. They play slow at 97.0 possessions per game, which keeps totals manageable, but they’re efficient when they execute. They shoot 60.3% true shooting and 55.7% effective field goal percentage—both better than Chicago’s marks.
The Matchup
This game comes down to depth and execution. Chicago is running a skeleton crew on the second night of a back-to-back road trip. They just played overtime in San Francisco, and now they’re flying to LA to face a rested Clippers team that’s won three straight. The pace matchup favors LA—the projection shows 99.7 possessions, which is right in the Clippers’ comfort zone.
The efficiency gap is real. The net rating edge sits at +5.3 in favor of the Clippers, and the true shooting gap is +2.1 percentage points. Chicago’s offense struggles to generate clean looks without Sexton and Simons, and the Clippers can load up on Giddey and force the Bulls’ role players to beat them.
Defensively, Chicago has no answer for Kawhi. He just went for 45 on 15-of-20 shooting, and the Bulls don’t have the wing defenders to slow him down with Williams and Okoro out. Mathurin and Garland can attack the depleted backcourt, and the Clippers have enough shooting to punish Chicago’s help defense.
The total projection comes in at 230.0, which is five points under the 235 market number. The pace blend and efficiency numbers suggest a slower, more controlled game than the market expects. Chicago doesn’t have the horses to push tempo, and the Clippers are content to grind in the halfcourt.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Under 235.0 (-110)
I’m passing on the spread and targeting the total. The projection sits at 230.0, and I think that’s generous given Chicago’s depleted roster and the pace matchup. The Clippers play at 97.0 possessions per game, and the Bulls won’t have the depth to push tempo without their full backcourt. My model projects 99.7 possessions, which is deliberate basketball—not the kind of game that gets to 235.
Chicago just played overtime in San Francisco and is flying cross-country on short rest. They’re down four rotation players who handle the ball and create offense. That means more possessions ending in contested looks and fewer transition opportunities. The Clippers are efficient, but they’re not a run-and-gun team. They’ll take their time, execute in the halfcourt, and let Kawhi work.
The risk here is garbage time. If the Clippers blow this open early, we could see bench units trading buckets in the fourth quarter. But I’m betting on a controlled game where Chicago struggles to score and the Clippers don’t need to push the pace. The under has value at 235, and I’m riding it.
