Bash sees two lottery-bound teams playing out the string, but the projection finds a small margin in Memphis despite the home court struggles. He’s weighing whether four points is too many to lay in a game where neither side has much to play for.
The Setup: Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is getting four points at home Saturday night, and that number feels about right when you’re looking at two teams that have been mathematically eliminated for weeks. The Bulls sit at 29-44, the Grizzlies at 24-49, and both clubs are firmly in tank mode with key rotation pieces shut down for the season. Chicago just got rolled in Oklahoma City 131-113 on Friday, while Memphis dropped their fifth straight at home to Houston 119-109. The projection has this game landing around 2.3 points in Memphis’s favor, which puts the Grizzlies +4.0 in interesting territory. The total sits at 245.5, and that’s where the real conversation starts when you consider what both offenses have looked like lately and the pace environment we’re dealing with.
This is a classic late-March spot where the betting market is pricing in roster uncertainty and effort level questions. Neither team has anything to play for except draft positioning, and the injury reports are loaded with questionable tags on both sides. The net rating gap between these teams is basically within noise—Memphis sits at -4.2, Chicago at -4.7—so we’re talking about two similarly inefficient operations. The question becomes whether four points is enough cushion in a game that could go either way based purely on which young players show up motivated.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies
Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: FedExForum
TV: FanDuel SN SE (home), CHSN, NBA League Pass (away)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Memphis Grizzlies +4.0 (-110) | Chicago Bulls -4.0 (-110)
- Total: Over 245.5 (-110) | Under 245.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies +142 | Chicago Bulls -175
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Chicago four points on the road despite playing last night in Oklahoma City, and that tells you everything about how Memphis has looked at home this season. The Grizzlies are 12-23 at FedExForum, and they’ve lost 13 of their last 14 games overall. When you’re that bad at home, the market doesn’t care much about back-to-back spots for the opponent. Chicago’s road record is ugly at 11-24, but at least they’ve shown some fight in clutch situations—they’re 20-18 in games decided by five points or less in the final five minutes. Memphis is just 13-24 in those same spots with a clutch plus-minus of -1.8.
The total at 245.5 is pricing in two offenses that can score—both teams sit around 115-116 points per game—but it’s also accounting for pace that’s slower than you might expect. The projected pace blend here is 102.1 possessions, which isn’t exactly a track meet. Chicago runs at 102.8 possessions per game, Memphis at 101.4, so we’re looking at a game that should play in the half-court more often than not. The projection has this total landing around 234.8, which creates a significant gap to the posted number.
The other factor here is roster availability. Chicago has Anfernee Simons, Yuki Kawamura, and Nick Richards all listed as questionable, while Memphis has Jahmai Mashack, Jaylen Wells, and Ty Jerome questionable. Jerome has missed two straight games, and if he sits again, that’s Memphis’s leading scorer at 19.7 points per game on the shelf. The market is building in uncertainty around who actually suits up, and that’s pushing this total higher than the underlying numbers suggest it should be.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown
The Bulls are running on fumes after last night’s blowout loss in Oklahoma City, where they gave up 131 points and never really competed after halftime. Josh Giddey continues to stuff the stat sheet with 17.4 points, 9.2 assists, and 8.3 rebounds per game, but his efficiency has been inconsistent—he’s shooting just 44.8% from the field and 36.6% from three. Matas Buzelis has shown flashes at 16.2 points per game on 46.6% shooting, and Collin Sexton remains their most efficient scorer at 48.8% from the field and 39.8% from deep.
The bigger issue for Chicago is the roster depletion. Zach Collins, Noa Essengue, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Smith are all done for the season, and that’s taken away any frontcourt depth they had. Nick Richards is questionable with a right elbow sprain after getting hurt Wednesday against Philadelphia, which would leave them even thinner inside. The Bulls rank 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage at 23.0%, and Memphis has a medium-sized edge there at 25.3%. That gap could matter in a game where second-chance points might be the difference.
Chicago’s defensive rating of 117.3 ranks near the bottom of the league, and they’ve shown zero ability to get stops when they need them. The one area where they’ve been competent is clutch execution—that 52.6% win rate in close games suggests they at least know how to execute down the stretch. But in a back-to-back spot on the road against another lottery team, it’s fair to question how much they’ll have left in the tank if this game stays tight.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown
Memphis is in full development mode with Ja Morant, Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Scotty Pippen Jr. all shut down for the season. That’s basically their entire core rotation gone, which leaves Ty Jerome and a bunch of young pieces trying to figure it out. Jerome is questionable again after missing the last two games, and if he sits, you’re looking at a Memphis offense that loses its best playmaker and most efficient scorer. He’s shooting 47.4% from the field and 42.0% from three, and those numbers are carrying a lot of weight for a team that shoots just 45.8% overall.
The Grizzlies have been getting production from unexpected places. Olivier-Maxence Prosper dropped a career-high 31 points against Houston on Friday, and guys like GG Jackson and Javon Small have shown they can score in bunches. But the consistency isn’t there, and Memphis’s offensive rating of 113.0 is barely better than Chicago’s 112.5. The defensive rating of 117.2 is almost identical to the Bulls at 117.3, so we’re talking about two teams that can’t guard anybody.
Memphis does have a small offensive rebounding edge at 25.3% compared to Chicago’s 23.0%, and that 2.3 percentage point gap is classified as a medium-sized advantage. In a game where neither team shoots particularly well, getting extra possessions off the offensive glass could be the deciding factor. The Grizzlies also turn it over at a slightly lower rate—13.0% compared to Chicago’s 13.2%—but that difference is basically within noise and doesn’t move the needle much.
The Matchup
This game sets up as a slugfest between two teams that have no defensive identity and limited offensive firepower. The mismatch numbers are almost identical on both sides—Chicago’s offense versus Memphis’s defense grades out at -4.7 points per 100 possessions, while Memphis’s offense versus Chicago’s defense sits at -4.3. Those are both medium-sized negative mismatches, which tells you neither team has a clear advantage when they have the ball. The shooting quality gap favors Chicago slightly with a 1.6 percentage point edge in effective field goal percentage, but that’s a small difference that could evaporate based on who’s available and how much energy each team brings.
The pace environment is the key here. My model projects 102.1 possessions, which is right in line with what both teams typically play. That’s not a high-possession game, and when you combine that with two offenses grading out in the low-to-mid 110s in offensive rating, you’re looking at a total that should land well below 245.5. The projection has this game at 234.8 total points, which creates a 10.7-point edge to the under. That’s a strong gap, and it’s built on the foundation of pace and efficiency numbers that don’t support the market’s scoring expectation.
The other factor is the back-to-back situation for Chicago. They played last night in Oklahoma City and got blown out, which means they logged heavy minutes for their key guys in a game that was over by the third quarter. Now they’re traveling to Memphis for a Saturday night game with nothing on the line. The motivation and energy level questions are real, and while Memphis has been terrible at home, they’re at least rested and playing in front of their own crowd. The projection gives Memphis a 2.3-point edge straight up, and when you add the four points they’re getting, that creates a 6.3-point edge to the spread. That’s classified as strong value, though I’m always cautious about laying too much trust in models when you’re dealing with tanking teams in late March.
The clutch numbers favor Chicago significantly—they’re 52.6% in close games compared to Memphis’s 35.1%—but that matters more if this game stays tight. If the total stays under and this turns into a grind-it-out affair in the 110-108 range, then Chicago’s clutch execution could be the difference. But if Memphis builds a lead and Chicago doesn’t have the legs to come back after last night, then the Grizzlies cover easily and the game never gets to crunch time.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Under 245.5 (-110)
I’m staying away from the side in this one because there are too many variables around effort level and roster availability. The projection likes Memphis +4.0, and I see the case for it—Chicago played last night, the Grizzlies are at home, and four points is a decent cushion in a game that should be close. But when you’re betting on two lottery teams in late March, you’re essentially guessing which group of young players shows up motivated, and I don’t have strong conviction either way.
The total is where I see clearer value. The projection has this game at 234.8 points, which is more than 10 points below the posted number of 245.5. That edge is built on pace and efficiency metrics that don’t support a high-scoring game. Both teams play in the low-100s in pace, both offenses grade out in the low-to-mid 110s in offensive rating, and neither defense can get stops consistently. That sounds like a recipe for scoring, but the math doesn’t support it when you’re only getting 102 possessions and both teams are shooting below-average percentages from the field.
The risk here is that this turns into a track meet if both teams decide to just run and gun with nothing to play for. But the season-long trends suggest otherwise, and I’m trusting the pace and efficiency numbers over the market’s inflated expectation. Give me the under 245.5, and I’ll live with the result if a couple of young guys get hot and push this over. The math says this game lands in the low-to-mid 230s, and that’s enough edge for me to take a shot.
