After a historic 302-point explosion on Sunday, Bryan Bash breaks down why the Bulls are the best bet to cover the +4 spread in tonight’s high-stakes rematch at State Farm Arena.
The Setup: Bulls at Hawks
The Bulls are getting +4 on the road in Atlanta with a total sitting at 252.5, and here’s the thing — that number tells you everything about what just happened between these teams. Chicago rolled into State Farm Arena two days ago and dropped 152 points in a 152-150 shootout that became the highest-scoring game in the NBA this season. Now the market is asking us to believe Atlanta bounces back as a four-point home favorite in what projects as another track meet.
Let me walk you through why this line exists. Atlanta sits 15-15 overall but just 5-8 at home, which is a massive red flag when you’re being asked to lay points in your own building. Chicago comes in at 13-15 with a 6-9 road mark, but they just proved they can hang with this Hawks team in this exact venue when the pace gets pushed. The total jumped from what would typically be 235-240 range all the way to 252.5 because both teams know how this matchup plays out — it’s a possession war where defensive stops become optional.
My thesis is simple: Atlanta’s home/road split creates a line that’s inflated by recency bias from their overall record rather than how they actually perform at State Farm Arena. When you factor in that Chicago just torched them for 152 in this building with nine players in double figures, laying four points feels like the market overcompensating for a Hawks team that hasn’t earned home favoritism this season.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 23, 2025, 7:30 ET
Venue: State Farm Arena
Spread: Atlanta Hawks -4.0 (-110) | Chicago Bulls +4.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Hawks -179 | Bulls +144
Total: Over/Under 252.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
On the surface, this number makes sense if you’re just looking at conference standings. Atlanta’s 15-15 record edges Chicago’s 13-15 mark, and the Hawks are technically the home team. But once you dig into the matchup data, the foundation for this spread starts cracking.
Atlanta is 5-8 at home this season. That’s not just a bad home record — that’s a team that’s actually worse in their own building than on the road, where they’re 10-7. The Bulls, meanwhile, are 7-6 at home and 6-9 on the road, which means they’re more competitive than their overall record suggests when you account for venue context. The market is pricing Atlanta as if home court matters here, but the data says State Farm Arena hasn’t been an advantage for this Hawks squad.
The total at 252.5 is the market’s direct response to Sunday’s 302-point explosion. Both teams showed they’re willing to trade baskets in transition, and neither coaching staff appears interested in grinding this into a halfcourt slog. The market is essentially telling us to expect another 125+ possessions of run-and-gun basketball, which makes sense given what we just witnessed.
Here’s where the spread gets interesting: Atlanta is missing Dyson Daniels to right hip inflammation, which removes one of their better perimeter defenders. Chicago just proved they can score in bunches in this building even when Atlanta was at full strength. Now you’re asking the Hawks to cover four points without one of their defensive anchors against a Bulls team that dropped 152 on them 48 hours ago? That’s not a recipe for a comfortable home cover.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Bulls are rolling out a balanced offensive attack led by Coby White at 21.2 points per game and Josh Giddey putting up an absurd 20.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per game. That’s near triple-double production from your secondary creator, which gives Chicago multiple ways to generate offense when the pace gets pushed.
Nikola Vucevic adds 16.0 points and 9.2 rebounds, giving them a legitimate post presence that can punish smaller lineups. But the real story from Sunday’s game was depth — nine Bulls players hit double figures, which tells you this isn’t a top-heavy roster that collapses when the stars sit. That rotation depth matters in a back-to-back situation where legs might be tired but the game script demands constant offensive production.
The concern for Chicago is always defense. They allowed 150 points on Sunday, which means they’re not stopping anyone in transition. But in a matchup where both teams are content to trade baskets, offensive firepower becomes more valuable than defensive integrity. The Bulls just proved they can win that kind of fight against this exact opponent in this exact building.
Atlanta Hawks Breakdown: The Other Side
Atlanta’s offensive foundation runs through Jalen Johnson, who’s putting up 23.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game. That’s legitimate All-Star caliber production, and he gives the Hawks a do-everything forward who can create advantages in transition. Nickeil Alexander-Walker adds 20.3 points per game, and Kristaps Porzingis provides 19.2 points with floor-spacing ability at 5.6 rebounds per game.
But here’s the thing — all that firepower was on the court Sunday, and Atlanta still gave up 152 points and lost at home. The absence of Dyson Daniels for this rematch removes one of their better defensive options, and Mouhamed Gueye is day-to-day with a sprained right shoulder, which could further limit their rotation depth.
The Hawks’ 5-8 home record isn’t a small sample fluke anymore — it’s a pattern. They’re not defending their home court, and they’re not generating the kind of home-court advantage that justifies laying points. When you combine that with the fact that Chicago just proved they can outscore them in a track meet, you’re left wondering what’s changed in 48 hours that suddenly makes Atlanta a confident four-point favorite.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in transition and on the glass. Sunday’s 302-point total came from both teams prioritizing pace over execution, and there’s no reason to expect a dramatic stylistic shift two days later. The total at 252.5 suggests the market expects another 125+ possession game, which means we’re looking at a contest where offensive efficiency matters more than defensive stops.
Chicago’s nine players in double figures on Sunday showed they can exploit Atlanta’s defensive lapses with balanced scoring. When you do that math over 125 possessions, it means the Bulls don’t need one guy to go nuclear — they just need contributions across the roster, which is exactly what they got in the first meeting.
Atlanta’s injury situation tilts this matchup more than the line suggests. Losing Daniels removes perimeter defense against a Bulls backcourt that features White and Giddey as primary creators. Porzingis can protect the rim, but he’s not quick enough to contain penetration in a pace-up environment. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts toward Chicago’s offensive strengths.
The main risk here is that Atlanta comes out motivated after a home loss and plays with desperation early. But motivation doesn’t fix defensive rotations, and it doesn’t replace a missing defender. I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: Chicago just proved they can score 152 in this building, and now they’re getting four points with Atlanta’s defense even more compromised. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m backing Chicago Bulls +4 (-110) for 2 units at State Farm Arena.
Atlanta’s 5-8 home record is the foundation of this play. You can’t ask me to lay points with a team that’s been worse at home than on the road, especially against an opponent that just dropped 152 in this building. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there.
The Daniels injury matters more in a rematch than it would in a standalone game. Chicago’s coaching staff knows exactly how to attack the gaps in Atlanta’s defense now, and they have the depth to execute that game plan over 125+ possessions. The Bulls don’t need to win outright — they just need to stay within a single possession, and they’ve already proven they can outscore this Hawks team when the game turns into a track meet.
The main risk is Atlanta’s desperation creating an early run that puts Chicago in catch-up mode. But this total at 252.5 suggests we’re getting another shootout, and in shootouts, the team getting points with proven offensive firepower has the edge. Chicago showed me everything I needed to see on Sunday. Now I’m getting four points with them in a near-identical matchup with Atlanta’s defense even more compromised. That’s value, and I’m taking it.
