Chicago hits Denver in the toughest back-to-back spot in basketball: thin air, tired legs, and Jokic waiting. But the spread is massive, and this matchup requires more than box-score skimming to understand where the real betting angle sits.
The Setup: Bulls at Nuggets – November 17th
This line’s a joke. The books have Denver laying 14.5 points at home against a Bulls team that just came off a brutal double-overtime loss to Utah. Chicago’s dead tired, traveling to altitude, and missing their starting point guard Coby White. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are rolling with seven straight wins and Nikola Jokic putting up MVP numbers again. The market’s practically begging you to take Denver, which makes me pause – but not enough to ignore what the numbers are screaming.
Chicago comes in at 6-6 overall but an ugly 1-5 on the road. Denver? They’re 10-2 overall and a perfect 6-0 at home. The Nuggets are averaging 124.4 points per game while holding opponents to just 111.3 – that’s a +13.2 scoring differential that ranks second in the entire league. The Bulls are barely treading water at 121.0 points scored versus 121.5 allowed. This is exactly the spot where tired legs meet elite execution, and the writing’s on the wall.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Monday, November 17, 2025 – 9:00 PM ET
- Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
- Spread: Denver -14.5 (Bulls +14.5)
- Total: 240.0 (Over/Under)
- Moneyline: Bulls +600 / Nuggets -950
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas knows something we don’t – or do they? This 14.5-point spread screams “blowout incoming,” and for good reason. The Nuggets are shooting 50.6% from the field overall, ranking first in the league in field goal percentage. Their effective field goal percentage sits at 57.4%, third-best in the NBA. Compare that to Chicago’s 48.1% shooting and 55.9% effective FG%, and you see why the line is where it is.
Denver’s defensive efficiency is equally impressive – they’re holding opponents to just 44.8% shooting, sixth-best in the league, while Chicago allows 47.7%. The Nuggets dominate in the paint with 55.7 points per game (4th in NBA) and crash the offensive glass at a 28.5% offensive rebound rate (10th). Their assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.18 ranks fourth, showing elite ball security and offensive execution.
But here’s the kicker – that double-overtime loss for Chicago wasn’t just a scheduling nightmare. The Bulls played 150-147 in double OT against Utah on Sunday night, with their top players logging massive minutes. Josh Giddey played heavy minutes with 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 13 assists. Coby White scored 27 but is now listed as OUT for tonight with injury management. That’s your best offensive weapon sitting, and your legs are already shot from playing two extra periods less than 24 hours ago.
Bulls Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Chicago’s offense can score – averaging 121.0 points per game (8th in NBA) – but their defense is a sieve at 121.5 points allowed (22nd). Josh Giddey has been their offensive engine, averaging 21.9 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 9.7 assists with eight double-doubles in just 10 games. He’s posting triple-double numbers consistently, but after that overtime marathon, can he replicate that tonight?
Nikola Vučević provides steady interior presence with 16.5 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, shooting 50.6% from the field. The problem? With Coby White out, the Bulls lose their second-leading scorer (27 points last game) and their most efficient free throw shooter. Ayo Dosunmu will have to step up, but he’s averaging just 15.2 points on 52.4% shooting – solid, but not enough to replace White’s production.
The Bulls shoot 39.4% from three (3rd in NBA), which could keep them in the game if they get hot. But their road numbers are brutal: 1-5 away from home with an average scoring margin of just +0.5 overall. They’re 8-3 against the spread this season, but those covers came mostly at home where they’re 6-0 ATS.
Nuggets Breakdown: The Other Side
Denver is clicking on all cylinders. Nikola Jokic is putting up absurd numbers: 28.7 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 10.9 assists per game with seven triple-doubles in 12 games. He’s shooting 67.2% from the field and his plus-minus of +14.3 leads the league. When the Joker plays, Denver wins – they’re 10-2 with him on the court.
The supporting cast is delivering. Jamal Murray averages 22.1 points and 6.3 assists, Aaron Gordon adds 19.9 points and 5.9 rebounds while shooting 53.3% from the field and 47.4% from three. Tim Hardaway Jr. provides instant offense off the bench with 12.0 points on 49.3% three-point shooting. This isn’t a one-man show – Denver has multiple weapons.
The Nuggets rank 3rd in offensive efficiency at 124.4 PPG and 3rd in defensive efficiency at 111.3 points allowed. They’re assisting on 65.7% of their field goals, showing unselfish ball movement. At home, Denver is averaging 125.5 points per game (4th in NBA) while holding home opponents to just 106.5 (4th). That’s a +19 point differential at Ball Arena.
Denver’s only concerns are minor: Christian Braun is out long-term with an ankle injury, and Jokic is listed as probable with a wrist sprain. But Jokic has been playing through it and just dropped a 27-point triple-double in their last game. He’s playing, and that’s all that matters.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
The pace and tempo favors Denver. The Nuggets control games with 29.4 assists per game (6th in NBA) and a ridiculous 2.18 assist-to-turnover ratio. Chicago averages 29.7 assists (5th), but they turn it over 15.2 times per game compared to Denver’s 13.5. In a game where possessions matter, that two-turnover swing adds up.
Rebounding should be relatively even – Denver averages 55.4 total rebounds to Chicago’s 55.5 – but the Nuggets’ 11.5 offensive rebounds per game (15th) will create second-chance opportunities against a tired Bulls squad. Denver’s defensive rebounding rate of 76.7% (5th) will limit Chicago’s ability to extend possessions.
The head-to-head history favors drama. These teams have played ten times recently, with Chicago holding a slight 5-5 edge straight up. But look closer: Denver covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 meetings, and the road team has been getting torched. In their March 2025 meeting in Denver, Chicago won 129-119 as 2.5-point underdogs, but that Bulls team had Coby White playing 30+ minutes and wasn’t coming off a double-overtime battle.
The altitude factor cannot be ignored. Playing at Ball Arena (5,280 feet elevation) is brutal for visiting teams, especially on back-to-backs. Chicago’s shooting percentages will likely dip in the thin air, and their legs will feel even heavier. Denver’s 84.0% free throw shooting (2nd in NBA) means they’ll capitalize at the charity stripe when Chicago’s forced to foul late.
The total of 240.0 is intriguing. Denver’s home games average 231.5 total points, while Chicago’s road games average 234.2. The over is 7-4 in Bulls games this season and 6-6 in Nuggets games. Both teams rank in the top 10 for pace, suggesting this could fly over if it stays competitive into the third quarter.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
Look, I get it – laying 14.5 points on an NBA regular season game makes you nervous. But this isn’t just any spot. The Bulls are walking wounded after a double-OT loss, missing their starting point guard, and traveling to altitude against the league’s best home team. Denver’s seven-game win streak isn’t a fluke – they’re legitimately elite when Jokic orchestrates the offense at this level.
The Nuggets’ +13.2 scoring margin ranks second in the league, and that margin expands to roughly +19 at home. Chicago’s road struggles (1-5 straight up) and Denver’s perfect 6-0 home record create a massive disparity. The sharp money knows what’s up here: this line would be 16.5 or 17 if the public wasn’t scared of big numbers. The books are actually giving you a gift at 14.5.
I’m hammering Denver before this number moves. The Bulls might hang around through halftime with adrenaline and hot three-point shooting, but the third quarter in Denver is where opponents die. Jokic and Murray will pick apart a tired defense, and the Nuggets’ depth will overwhelm Chicago’s depleted rotation. This isn’t a trap – it’s a statement game for Denver.
BASH’S BEST BET: Nuggets -14.5 – Load up on this before the line shifts. Chicago’s got nothing left in the tank, and the Nuggets are on a mission. The +13.2 scoring differential advantage is too big to ignore, especially at home where they’re undefeated. Take Denver to cover and don’t look back.
Secondary Play: Over 240.0 – If you want a safety valve, the over makes sense. Even if Denver blows them out early, they’ll keep scoring, and Chicago will press in garbage time. Both teams average over 240 combined in similar matchups, and the pace should be fast enough to get there.
