The short Bulls -5.0 spread is a quintessential trap, betting on Chicago’s reputation while ignoring their massive 3-5 road record vulnerability. The desperate Pelicans, despite their abysmal 2-15 record, hold a surprisingly strong 5-4-0 Against The Spread (ATS) record at home, confirming they are consistently undervalued by the market. Against a Bulls team that struggled to beat the league’s worst team by one point, the Pelicans +5.0 is the clear value play to exploit the road favorite’s inconsistency.
The Setup: Bulls at Pelicans
The Bulls are laying 5 points against a Pelicans squad that’s 2-15 and limping through one of the worst seasons in franchise history? I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the team that shows up thinking they’ve got a free win waiting for them. New Orleans is 1-8 at home, but that’s exactly the spot where desperate teams play with nothing to lose. The books are begging you to take Chicago here, and when Vegas makes something look this easy, you better pump the brakes and dig deeper.
Chicago’s sitting at 9-7, but let’s talk about what that record really means. They’re 3-5 on the road, and now they’re walking into the Smoothie King Center on Monday night against a team that just got embarrassed by Atlanta. The market’s disrespecting New Orleans here, and while the Pelicans have earned every bit of that disrespect with their 2-15 record, this number feels inflated. Five points in a spot where the Bulls could easily sleepwalk through three quarters? That’s a trap, and I’m looking hard at those points.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 24, 2025, 8:00 ET
Location: Smoothie King Center
Spread: Bulls -5.0 (-110) | Pelicans +5.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Bulls -213 | Pelicans +169
Total: Over/Under 244.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books set this number at 5 because they know exactly what they’re doing. Chicago just beat Washington 121-120 in a game that came down to the wire against the worst team in the league. Meanwhile, New Orleans got boat-raced by Atlanta 115-98 at home. The narrative writes itself: good team beats bad team by comfortable margin. Sharp money knows what’s up here though – this is a classic letdown spot for the Bulls.
Look at Chicago’s profile. They’re 6-2 at home but just 3-5 on the road. That’s a massive split that tells you everything about their ability to win away from the United Center. The Bulls rank 7th in the Eastern Conference, which sounds respectable until you realize they’re barely above .500 and struggling to find consistency. The moneyline at -213 suggests Vegas expects Chicago to win, but laying 5 points on the road against any NBA team requires a level of dominance the Bulls haven’t shown this season.
The Pelicans are 15th in the West at 2-15, and their home record of 1-8 is absolutely brutal. But here’s what the market might be missing: Jordan Poole is out, which actually removes a high-usage player who’s been inefficient. Sometimes addition by subtraction is real, and New Orleans might play more cohesively without him. The public’s all over Chicago here, which means we need to ask ourselves if this is really as easy as it looks.
Bulls Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Coby White has emerged as Chicago’s go-to scorer, averaging 24.0 points per game with 7.0 assists. He’s running the show and giving the Bulls a legitimate offensive threat every night. Josh Giddey is putting up near triple-double numbers at 20.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 9.7 assists, which is exactly what Chicago needed when they acquired him. Nikola Vucevic just dropped 28 and 12 against Washington, though his season averages of 16.7 points and 9.6 boards are solid but not spectacular.
The injury situation is worth monitoring. Patrick Williams is questionable with a wrist issue, while Trentyn Flowers and Dalen Terry are both out. Williams’ status could impact Chicago’s defensive versatility, though he’s not a primary scoring option. The Bulls won their last game 121-120, but needing every possession to beat a Wizards team on a 14-game losing streak isn’t exactly inspiring confidence.
Chicago’s 3-5 road record is the elephant in the room. They’ve been a different team away from home, and traveling to New Orleans on a Monday night after grinding out a one-point win isn’t the ideal setup. This is exactly the spot where the Bulls burn you if you’re expecting them to dominate.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans is a disaster, let’s not sugarcoat it. At 2-15, they’re in full tank mode whether they admit it or not. But they still have NBA talent on the roster. Zion Williamson is averaging 21.4 points and 6.1 rebounds, and when he’s engaged, he’s still one of the most unstoppable forces in the paint. Trey Murphy III is putting up 20.2 points and 6.4 rebounds, giving the Pelicans a legitimate scoring threat from the wing.
The loss of Jordan Poole might actually help New Orleans’ ball movement. He was averaging 17.3 points but on questionable efficiency. Kevon Looney is questionable with a heel issue, and Karlo Matkovic is out, which thins their frontcourt depth. That could be a problem against Vucevic, but it also means more minutes for Zion to operate in the paint without clogging.
That 1-8 home record is ugly, but every team wins eventually. The Pelicans just lost to Atlanta by 17 at home, getting destroyed 115-98. That’s the kind of embarrassment that either leads to complete collapse or a pride response. With Chicago coming in as road favorites, this could be the spot where New Orleans shows some fight.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to effort and execution. Chicago has the better roster top to bottom, but they’re on the road against a team with nothing to lose. The Bulls are 3-5 away from home for a reason – they don’t bring the same intensity on the road that they show at the United Center. New Orleans is desperate for any kind of positive momentum, and playing at home gives them their best chance.
The total is set at 244, which suggests Vegas expects a relatively high-scoring affair. Both teams have offensive weapons, and neither defense has been particularly stout. White and Giddey can score, but so can Zion and Murphy. The question is whether Chicago can put together four quarters of focused basketball or if they’ll cruise through stretches and let New Orleans hang around.
Chicago’s road struggles are well-documented at 3-5, while New Orleans has been abysmal at home at 1-8. Something’s got to give, but five points is asking a lot from a Bulls team that needed overtime-level execution to beat Washington by one. The market’s assuming Chicago wins comfortably, but I’m not convinced they have that gear on the road.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Pelicans +5.0 and feeling good about it. This is a classic look-ahead spot for Chicago, and New Orleans is due for a competitive performance at home. The Bulls are 3-5 on the road, and asking them to cover five points against an NBA team – even a bad one – is asking too much. Zion and Murphy have enough firepower to keep this within a possession or two, and if Chicago shows up flat for even one quarter, we’re cashing this ticket.
I’m not saying the Pelicans win outright, though at +169 there’s some value if you want to sprinkle a small play on the moneyline. But the smart money is on the points. Chicago wins by three, maybe four, and we’re celebrating while everyone who laid the five is sweating the backdoor. 2 units on Pelicans +5.0.
The books made this line look easy, and anytime Vegas makes something look this simple, you better think twice. I’m hammering this number before it moves, because this is exactly the kind of game where the underdog covers even if they don’t win. Bulls win 118-115, we cash the ticket, and we’re on to the next one.
