RBD breaks down Celtics vs Rockets betting with a totals prediction, using team-specific data and disciplined handicapping models.
Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets
NBA Over/Under Prediction
With football behind us I’m now fully focused on handicapping basketball.
Fortunately, I’m not starting blindly.
In the past, I waited until football season was over before I started handicapping basketball, deciding that a divided focus would not serve my football handicapping well. The size of my football betting unit is MUCH larger than basketball so I wanted to concentrate on a single sport and put all my handicapping time into it.
But that created a problem – when I started ‘capping basketball in January I was doing it blindly, I had no database to look at to help me choose what games to buy.
This year I’ve been ‘capping basketball since opening day back in October. I have four months worth of stats to work with.
For example, I have two models for picking totals, T1 and T2.
T2 has a record of 35-26 on Overs.
That’s just a hair under 58%, the cut-off line I use to decide whether I’ll buy a play or not.
Today, T2 says the Bos/Hou game goes Over the total.
So I’m buying the Under.
Why go against the 58% spot and by the Under in tonight’s game?
That 35-26 record on T2 Overs is a league-wide stat.
It encompasses all teams.
I have no problem using league stats but I prefer stats that are team specific.
I used my handicapping time this morning to see what the record is when the Rockets are in this T2 spot.
And I found that they’re 7-9.
A slight edge, about a 56% Fade.
Then I ran the Celtics through my database.
When Boston is in a T2 over spot they have a record of 4-9. That’s a solid 69% Fade.
Combined record 11-18, a 62% Fade.
Looking at the overall records I see . . .
The Boston Celtics have a 10-16 Over/Under record on the road. That’s 61% on Unders.
Houston Rockets are 7-14 Over/Under at home.
That’s good for 67% play on the Under.
But not all the stats are to my liking.
In their last 10 games the Celtics have played to the Under at an 80 percent clip.
They’re 2-8 Ov/Un, including six straight.
And the Rockets are the same, 2-8 Ov/Un in their last 10.
Most betters look at those stats on the recent play and they like them because most betters like jumping on trends.
Not me.
Also not to my favor is the line opened at 217′ and is already down to 214′. So I’m not getting the best number.
Still, there’s no sense in keeping stats if you’re not going to use them when you see edges.
And both teams specific edges tell me to buy the Under in this one.
My play:
Bos/Houston Un 214:
Recap: 1-1
Record: 8-7
Review:
I nailed the play in my last article, fading Sacramento when they’re in game two of B2B spots.
I took Boston -11 and they jumped out to a 72-46 lead at halftime, on the way to winning by 19 points for the cover.
Unfortunately I gave out the Over 219 as a forum play.
With a 26 point lead at halftime the Celtics turned into total slackers – their combined second half score was equal to the points they scored in the first quarter alone!
I got the cover but missed on the total.
Super Bowl
I have no plays to recommend for the Super Bowl.
I hit three straight games with the Seahawks and I’m not going to risk giving a unit back.
I’ll be watching as a fan, rooting for a Seattle win.
I’m looking at a couple prop bets for in-game action/fun.
I’ll probably have something on “Shortest touchdown Under 1′.”
I usually like to play “Total Number of Players to Throw a Pass Over 2′” but neither of these coaches are gimmicky kind of guys, they run straightforward offenses without a lot of trick plays involved.
I’m also going to check the number on Drake May Rushing Yards Over.
I expect there to be at least two or three design run plays for him, and I expect to have a few more yards from scrambles as he’s running for his life from the Seattle defense when he sees none of his receivers are open.
Nothing recommended, just some plays for fun.
If I get the numbers I want and decide it’s worth a recommended play I’ll do one update in the forum.
Enjoy the game!
