The 9-point line is begging you to take Boston—don’t do it! Bryan Bash reveals his high-confidence prediction and the true best bet play.
The Setup: Celtics at Wizards
The Celtics are laying 9 points on the road against a Wizards team that’s 3-17, and Vegas is practically begging you to take Boston. But here’s the thing—Jaylen Brown is doubtful with an illness after dropping 42 points in his last game, and Jayson Tatum is out for the season with an Achilles issue. Meanwhile, the books have this number at 9, not 15, which tells me the market’s already baked in the Celtics’ injury chaos. The public sees Boston at 12-9 and Washington at 3-17 and thinks this is free money. I’ve seen this movie before, and it usually ends with the favorite covering by the hook or the dog keeping it close enough to make you sweat. The Wizards are missing Alexandre Sarr, their leading scorer at 19.1 PPG, which levels the playing field more than you’d think. This is exactly the spot where the Celtics burn you if you’re not paying attention to who’s actually suiting up.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 4, 2025, 7:00 ET
Venue: Capital One Arena
Spread: Celtics -9.0 (-110) / Wizards +9.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Celtics -417 / Wizards +313
Total: Over/Under 228.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books are begging you to take the Celtics here, and they’re doing it by keeping this number under double digits. Boston’s sitting at 12-9 and ranked 6th in the East, while Washington is a dumpster fire at 3-17 and dead last at 15th in the conference. On paper, this should be Celtics -15, but Vegas knows something we don’t—or rather, they know the casual bettor doesn’t read injury reports until tip-off. Brown’s 29.0 PPG is likely off the table, and Tatum’s season-ending injury already stripped this team of their superstar. The market’s disrespecting the Wizards here by assuming they can’t keep this within single digits at home, but Washington’s 2-6 at Capital One Arena, which means they’ve been competitive enough in spots to avoid total blowouts. The Celtics are 5-5 on the road, which isn’t exactly dominant, and without their top two scorers, they’re relying on Payton Pritchard (17.1 PPG) and Derrick White (16.3 PPG) to carry the load. That’s a recipe for a grind-it-out game, not a blowout. The total at 228 reflects this reality—the books aren’t expecting a shootout, they’re expecting a slog.
Celtics Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s cut through the noise: the Celtics are a completely different team without Brown and Tatum. Brown just went off for 42 points and a season-high performance against the Knicks, sealing it with a breakaway dunk in the final seconds of a 123-117 win. That’s the kind of firepower Boston’s likely missing Thursday night. White added 22 points in that game, with 7 coming in the final four minutes, showing he can step up in clutch moments. But asking him and Pritchard to replicate that consistently on the road is a tall order. Boston’s 7-4 at home but just 5-5 on the road, which tells you they’re vulnerable away from TD Garden. Pritchard’s averaging 17.1 PPG with 4.7 APG, and White’s at 16.3 PPG with 5.1 APG—solid contributors, but not the kind of guys who’ll blow the doors off a team, even a bad one. The Celtics are going to have to win this game with defense and execution, not raw talent. If Brown sits, this team’s ceiling drops significantly, and that 9-point spread starts looking a lot shakier.
Wizards Breakdown: The Other Side
Washington’s 3-17 record screams “fade me,” but let’s talk about what they’re missing versus what Boston’s missing. The Wizards are without Alexandre Sarr (19.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG), Bilal Coulibaly (out multiple weeks with an oblique), and Sharife Cooper (calf). That’s their leading scorer and a key rotation piece gone. But they’ve still got CJ McCollum at 18.0 PPG and KyShawn George putting up 15.2 PPG with 6.1 RPG and 4.8 APG. George is a do-it-all guy who can fill the stat sheet, and McCollum’s a proven scorer who’s seen every defensive scheme in the book. The Wizards are 1-11 on the road, which is brutal, but they’re 2-6 at home, meaning they’ve been more competitive at Capital One Arena. Their last game was a 121-102 loss to Philly, where Tyrese Maxey torched them for 35 points. But that’s a different animal than a Celtics team without its top two stars. Washington’s not winning this game outright, but they don’t need to—they just need to keep it within 9, and that’s absolutely in play.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: can the Celtics’ supporting cast execute on the road against a desperate Wizards team? Boston’s 5-5 on the road this season, which tells you they’re not world-beaters away from home even at full strength. The Wizards are 2-6 at home, but two of those wins came against teams they had no business beating, which means they’re capable of showing up in spots. Without Brown’s 29.0 PPG and Tatum’s production, the Celtics are going to have to rely on Pritchard and White to generate offense, and that’s a significant downgrade. The total at 228 suggests the books are expecting a lower-scoring affair, which makes sense given the personnel losses on both sides. If this turns into a rock fight, the Wizards have the edge because they’re playing at home with nothing to lose. The Celtics, meanwhile, are in a tough spot—they’re expected to win, but they don’t have the horses to dominate. Sharp money knows what’s up here: this is a classic letdown spot for Boston, and the Wizards are live to cover.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering the Wizards +9 before this line moves. The Celtics are 12-9, but they’re missing their two best players, and they’re 5-5 on the road. The Wizards are 3-17, but they’re at home, and they’ve got enough offensive firepower with McCollum and George to keep this within single digits. This is exactly the spot where the Celtics burn you—the public’s all over Boston because they see the records and assume it’s a layup, but the market’s already adjusted for the injuries. I’m not buying the narrative that a depleted Celtics squad rolls into Capital One Arena and wins by double digits. Give me the home dog with the points. Confidence: 4 units on Wizards +9. This line’s a joke, and I’m taking the points all day long.
