Dallas Mavericks (33-21 SU 21-33 ATS) vs. Orlando Magic (37-18 SU 25-26-1 ATS) Amway Arena, Orlando, FL 8 PM EST Friday February 19, 2010 on ESPN
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Mavericks +6 / Magic -6
Over/Under: 201
Tonight the Orlando Magic host the Dallas Mavericks in a non-conference game. Orlando is coming off a win, is 8-2 in their last 10 games, and trail the Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 games in the Eastern Conference. The Mavs made a trade that should make their team better and they did win their last game with their new-look team. However, the Mavs are only 4-6 in their last 10 games and they are currently in 4th place in the Western Conference.
This season Orlando is 21-5 at home and Dallas is 17-12 on the road.
The Mavericks traded for Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson and Dallas hopes these players can get them far in the Western Conference playoffs.
The player Dallas most wanted was Butler, but in his first 2 games for the Mavs he is only averaging 14 ppg on 31.3% shooting. In 2 games this season against the Magic when Butler was in a Wizards’ uniform he was solid averaging 27 ppg.
Center Brendan Haywood (9.7 ppg 10.2 rpg) will be counted on right away to be the big man in the middle, since Dallas starting C Erick Dampier is out indefinitely with a finger injury. Haywood will have to step it up tonight, as he will be facing the most dominant big man in the game tonight in Magic C Dwight Howard (18.2 ppg 13.4 rpg).
The Mavs have played well against Orlando recently, as they have won 5 of 6 against them including their last 3 in Orlando.
In Dallas’ 3 game winning streak in Orlando Dirk Nowitzki (24.7 ppg) has played great averaging 26.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg and 4.7 assists per game.
The Mavs will pack the lane in order to keep Howard from dominating the paint so the Magic outside shooters will have to hit the open J tonight.
Dallas has lost 2 straight road games and tonight look to avoid their first 3-game road losing streak of the season.
The Mavs beat the Phoenix Suns 107-97 in their last game on Wednesday night. The high scorer for Dallas in the game was Dirk Nowitzki going for 28 points on 11/24 shooting. For the game the Mavs shot 41/87 for a FG% of 47.1%. On defense the Mavs allowed the Suns to shoot 37/80 for a FG% of 46.3%.
In their last game, also on Wednesday night, the Magic crushed the Detroit Pistons 116-91. The high scorer for Orlando was Dwight Howard going for 33 points on 11/16 shooting. For the game the Magic shot well going 42/82 from the floor for a FG% of 51.2%. On D the Magic played well holding the Pistons to 34/80 shooting for a FG% of 42.5%.
This season the Magic rank 11th in the league in scoring (101.4 ppg) and the Mavs rank 13th (101.1 ppg). On D the Magic rank 7th in points allowed (95.8 ppg) and the Mavs rank 15th (99.5 ppg). The Magic are a better team on the boards, as they have a rebounding differential of +2.4 and the Mavs are at +0.6 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings Magic rank 3rd (94.1) and the Mavs rank 10th (92.73).
Dallas is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Dallas has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 road games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
Orlando is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.
Orlando has an Over record of 7-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record and has an under record of 14-6 in their last 20 games.
In 8 of the last 9 meetings between these 2 teams the total has gone Over.
On the injury front C Erick Dampier is Out and SF Shawn Marion is day-to-day for Dallas while Orlando is not reporting any significant injuries.
Jason’s Pick: Even though the Mavs have had the Magic’s number in the past several games they simply do not have enough inside help to contain Howard, especially since Dampier is out. Look for Superman to have a big game and for the Magic to easily win this game and cover the spread.
