Bash sees two injury-ravaged rosters limping into Monday night and finds the market’s 243 total disconnected from reality. When half the rotation is sitting, pace projections tell a different story than the box scores suggest.
The Setup: Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are laying 6 at home against a Grizzlies squad that’s lost seven straight, and that spread feels about right given the respective situations. Memphis is 23-43, riding a brutal skid that saw them get handled by Detroit 126-110 on Friday. Chicago sits at 27-40 after dropping three straight themselves, most recently a 119-108 loss in LA to the Clippers. Both teams are playing out the string with depleted rosters, but the market’s hung a 243 total on this one that caught my attention immediately.
When I see a number that high between two lottery-bound teams missing half their rotation, I start looking at the pace and efficiency data. The projection here is 234.1—a nine-point gap from the posted total. That’s not a rounding error. That’s a market overreaction to recent box scores without accounting for who’s actually suiting up Monday night.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls
Date: March 16, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: United Center
TV: Home: CHSN | Away: FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (Bovada):
- Spread: Chicago Bulls -6.0 (-105) | Memphis Grizzlies +6.0 (-115)
- Total: Over 243.0 (-110) | Under 243.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Chicago Bulls -240 | Memphis Grizzlies +200
Why This Line Exists
The Bulls are home favorites because they’re the less-broken team right now. Memphis has lost seven consecutive games and is missing massive pieces—Ja Morant remains out with elbow issues, Zach Edey’s done for the season after ankle surgery, and the Grizzlies just shut down Santi Aldama, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for the year. That’s not a rotation dealing with adversity—that’s a skeleton crew playing for draft position.
Chicago’s in similar territory with Anfernee Simons missing his 11th straight with a fractured left wrist and Zach Collins done for the season. Collin Sexton and Isaac Okoro are both doubtful for Monday. The Bulls are 27-40 for a reason, and their minus-4.6 net rating reflects a team that’s been outclassed most nights.
The 243 total exists because both teams have averaged 115.7 points per game this season, and the market’s looking at those scoring averages without adjusting for current personnel. But scoring averages don’t account for who’s actually playing. When you strip out rotation players and run skeleton lineups, pace slows down and efficiency craters. The model projects 234.1 total points with a pace blend around 101.9 possessions—that’s a meaningful gap from where this number’s posted.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown
The Grizzlies are running on fumes. Ty Jerome has been carrying the offensive load at 20.1 points per game with Morant sidelined, but Jerome himself is doubtful for Monday with a shoulder issue. If he sits, Memphis is down to Cam Spencer and a collection of end-of-bench guys trying to generate offense. GG Jackson is also doubtful with right foot soreness, and Walter Clayton Jr. is questionable with an ankle problem.
Memphis posts a 113.7 offensive rating and 116.5 defensive rating on the season—both mediocre numbers that were compiled when they had actual NBA rotation players available. Their pace sits at 101.4 possessions per game, and they’re 11-22 on the road. The seven-game losing streak includes getting torched by Detroit’s Jalen Duren for 30 and 13 on Friday. This isn’t a team with any answers right now, and the injury report suggests Monday could be even uglier from a talent standpoint.
The Grizzlies shoot 46.1% from the field and 35.6% from three—respectable enough—but those percentages came with better personnel. When you’re asking Javon Small and Cedric Coward to shoulder major minutes, shot quality deteriorates fast.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown
Chicago’s healthier by comparison, but that’s a low bar. Josh Giddey continues to stuff the stat sheet at 18.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game, and he posted another triple-double Friday in the loss to the Clippers—20 points, 11 boards, 10 assists. Matas Buzelis has shown flashes at 15.9 points per game, and Tre Jones added 21 in that Clippers loss.
The Bulls post a 112.3 offensive rating and 116.9 defensive rating—both worse than Memphis on a per-possession basis. Their net rating of minus-4.6 is actually worse than the Grizzlies’ minus-2.8, which tells you everything about how this season’s gone in Chicago. They’re 16-18 at home, so the United Center hasn’t been a fortress, but they do have a slight clutch edge with a 52.8% win rate in close games compared to Memphis at 34.3%.
Without Simons and potentially without Sexton and Okoro, Chicago’s depth takes a hit. But they’ve still got Giddey running the offense and enough secondary scorers to generate points in the halfcourt. The question is whether they can push pace and exploit Memphis’s depleted roster, or if this turns into a grind-it-out affair with limited possessions.
The Matchup
This is where the total becomes interesting. Both teams average 115.7 points per game, and both run similar pace metrics—Memphis at 101.4, Chicago at 102.5. The pace blend projects to 101.9 possessions, which is right in line with their season averages. But pace alone doesn’t drive scoring—you need efficiency, and efficiency requires healthy rotation players who can execute.
Memphis’s offensive rating of 113.7 matches up against Chicago’s defensive rating of 116.9, creating a minus-3.2 mismatch per 100 possessions. That favors Memphis slightly, but not when you factor in who’s actually available. If Ty Jerome sits, the Grizzlies lose their primary initiator and leading scorer. Chicago’s offense against Memphis’s defense creates a minus-4.2 mismatch per 100 possessions, which should favor the Bulls—but again, personnel matters more than season-long averages at this stage.
The shooting quality edge is minimal—Chicago’s effective field goal percentage sits 1.3 points higher than Memphis, which is within noise. The turnover rates are essentially identical. The one area where Memphis has a real advantage is offensive rebounding, where they hold a 3.0 percentage point edge. That could generate second-chance points, but only if they have the bodies to crash the glass.
The real story here is that both teams are running compromised lineups in a meaningless late-season game. The market’s posted a total based on season-long scoring averages without adjusting for current reality. My model projects 234.1 total points—nearly nine points below the 243 number. That’s a strong edge on the under, and it’s rooted in the fact that skeleton crews don’t produce efficient offense, even if the pace stays relatively normal.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Under 243 in this spot. The market’s overreacting to the 115.7 points per game both teams have averaged this season without accounting for who’s sitting Monday night. Memphis is likely without Ty Jerome, their leading scorer, and already missing Morant, Edey, Aldama, Pippen, and Caldwell-Pope. Chicago’s down Simons for 11 straight and potentially without Sexton and Okoro. These aren’t the same rosters that produced those scoring averages earlier in the year.
The projection sits at 234.1, and the pace blend of 101.9 possessions doesn’t suggest a track meet. This is two lottery teams playing out the string with depleted depth charts. Offensive execution suffers when you’re asking end-of-bench guys to carry major minutes, and neither coaching staff has any incentive to push tempo in a meaningless March game. The under has value here, and I’m comfortable laying the juice with a nine-point cushion from the projection.
The risk is obvious—if both teams decide to run and gun for 48 minutes, any total can get torched. But the personnel and situational context suggest a slower, uglier game than the market’s pricing in. I’ll take the under and trust that reality matches the projection more than the inflated number.
