Bryan Bash rips into this Memphis at Cleveland matchup with a bold against-the-spread pick, leaning on the Grizzlies’ slump, the Cavaliers’ home scoring punch, and a lopsided efficiency gap that could turn this bet into a runaway in Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse.
The Setup: Memphis at Cleveland
This line’s a joke. The Cavaliers are laying 10.5 to 11 points against a Grizzlies squad that’s absolutely reeling right now, and the books are begging you to take Memphis and the points. Don’t fall for it.
Memphis is 4-9 straight up and 3-10 against the spread – that’s historically bad. They’re scoring just 112.8 points per game while surrendering 120.7, and it gets worse on the road where they’re 1-4. The Grizzlies just got embarrassed by Boston 131-95 two nights ago, shooting a brutal 34% from the field. Ja Morant’s injury status is that he is cleared to play and is off the injury report after a brief absence for a right ankle injury. He missed the November 12th game against the Boston Celtics, but is expected to start when the Grizzlies play the Cleveland Cavaliers on November 15th.
Cleveland is 8-5 and averaging 122.2 points per game at home. They’re coming off a tough back-to-back loss to Toronto, but that was without Darius Garland. The market’s disrespecting the Cavs here, and I’m not buying the narrative that this spread is too high.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025 – 5:00 PM ET
- Venue: Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
- Spread: Cleveland -10.5 to -11
- Total: 238 to 238.5
- Moneyline: Cleveland -500 to -525 / Memphis +368 to +375
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s talk about what Vegas knows that the public doesn’t want to hear. Cleveland is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games, which screams “fade the Cavs,” right? Wrong. That’s exactly the spot where Cleveland burns you.
The Grizzlies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games and 0-5 ATS on the road in their last five. Memphis has lost seven of their last eight games, and they’re getting absolutely destroyed defensively – allowing 56.5% effective field goal percentage to opponents. That’s 25th in the league.
The total sitting at 238.5 is interesting. Cleveland averages 122.2 points at home, and Memphis is giving up 125.0 points per game on the road. The Cavaliers have a major offensive efficiency edge – 53.9% effective FG% compared to Memphis’ league-worst 50.9%. Cleveland also dominates the boards with 56.8 rebounds per game (8th in NBA) versus Memphis’ 52.6 (17th).
Sharp money knows what’s up here. The Cavs are 16-4 straight up in their last 20 home games against Memphis. This isn’t a coin flip – it’s a mismatch.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Grizzlies are in complete disarray right now. Scoring just 112.8 PPG (25th in NBA) while surrendering 120.7, they have a -7.9 point differential that ranks dead last in the league. Their shooting has been atrocious – 43.5% from the field (28th) and 33.2% from three (26th).
Jaren Jackson Jr. is their leading scorer at 17.2 PPG on 50.9% shooting, but he’s getting zero help. Ja Morant was averaging 18.9 PPG before the ankle injury, but he’s shooting just 35.2% from the field and a horrific 16.7% from three. Morant is expected to play after missing the Boston game, which will provide a boost to Memphis’ offensive capabilities. If Morant plays below his season average or sits due to re-injury, rookie Cedric Coward (14.3 PPG) becomes their second option – that’s a massive downgrade.
Memphis ranks 24th in steals, 27th in two-point shooting, and 24th in offensive rebounding percentage. They can’t create second-chance opportunities, can’t shoot efficiently, and can’t defend. On the road, they’re averaging just 110.2 PPG while giving up 125.0 – that’s a -14.8 point differential away from home.
Cleveland Cavaliers Breakdown: The Other Side
The Cavaliers are a completely different animal at home. They’re averaging 122.2 PPG (5th in NBA) and holding opponents to 118.2 (solid defensive numbers). Donovan Mitchell is putting up monster numbers – 30.5 PPG with 5.5 assists, shooting 50% from the field and draining 4.0 threes per game at 38.9%.
Evan Mobley is giving you 19.0 PPG and 8.7 rebounds with elite defense – 1.4 blocks and 1.4 steals per game. The Cavs are getting major contributions from their supporting cast too. Jarrett Allen adds 15.5 PPG on 58.4% shooting with 7.9 boards, and Sam Merrill is hitting 3.6 threes per game at a scorching 42.9% clip.
Cleveland’s offensive efficiency is legit – 53.9% effective FG%, 45.3% overall shooting, and 34.8% from deep. They’re second in the league in three-point attempts (46.6 per game) and they’re making 16.2 of them. The Cavs also dominate the defensive glass with a 71.8% defensive rebounding rate.
Yes, they’re missing Darius Garland (toe), but Mitchell thrived without him Thursday, dropping 31 points on Miami. De’Andre Hunter is stepping up with 18.9 PPG, and this team has enough firepower to bury Memphis.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in three key areas, and Cleveland has the advantage in all of them.
Shooting Efficiency: Cleveland shoots 45.3% overall and 53.9% effective FG%. Memphis shoots 43.5% overall and 50.9% effective FG%. The Cavs have a significant edge, especially from three where they’re launching 46.6 attempts per game compared to Memphis’ 39.8.
Rebounding Battle: Cleveland averages 56.8 total rebounds per game (8th in NBA) with 13.4 offensive boards. Memphis grabs just 52.6 total rebounds (17th) with only 10.5 offensive boards. The Cavs’ 28.2% offensive rebounding rate crushes Memphis’ 22.9%. Second-chance points will kill the Grizzlies.
Home Court Dominance: Cleveland is 16-4 straight up in their last 20 home games versus Memphis. The Cavs are 5-0 straight up in their last five meetings overall. Memphis is 4-16 straight up in their last 20 road games against Cleveland. The historical trends are screaming fade Memphis.
The pace factor favors Cleveland too. The Grizzlies are struggling with turnovers (14.5 per game), and Cleveland forces 13.5 turnovers while committing just 13.5 themselves (5th best ratio in NBA). The Cavs will push tempo, get out in transition, and exploit Memphis’ 7.0% steal rate on defense.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5 (-110)
I’m hammering this number before it moves. Memphis is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games for a reason – they can’t compete right now. The Grizzlies are coming off a 36-point beatdown in Boston where they shot 34% from the floor, and now they’re facing a Cleveland team that’s 16-4 at home versus them over the last 20 meetings.
The shooting efficiency gap is massive. The rebounding advantage is massive. The home court edge is massive. Cleveland scores 122.2 PPG at home while Memphis gives up 125.0 on the road. Do the math.
The books are trying to scare you off with a double-digit spread, but this is exactly the spot where Cleveland covers easily. Load up on the Cavs before this line goes to -12. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup – Cleveland by 15+.
The Play: Cavaliers -10.5 for 2 units. Cash it.
