Utah just got throttled in Denver, but they’re back home and getting points against a depleted Memphis squad. Bryan Bash investigates if the Jazz’s offensive engines are the best bet for tonight’s Western Conference battle.
The Setup: Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz
The Grizzlies are laying 2.5 points on the road in Salt Lake City, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Memphis sits at 13-16 but has shown resilience on the road with a 7-8 mark, while Utah limps in at 10-18 overall and just 7-9 at home. The market is giving Memphis respect despite missing Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke, and I get why that line exists — the Jazz have been getting throttled lately, including a 135-112 beatdown in Denver where they fell behind 19-0 to start the game. But here’s the thing: when you dig into what each team actually does well and how this matchup plays out over 96 possessions, I keep coming back to Utah’s offensive firepower at home and Memphis’s depth concerns. Let me walk you through why this line exists and where I see the value.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 23, 2025, 9:00 ET
Venue: Delta Center
Spread: Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 (-110) / Utah Jazz +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Memphis -145 / Utah +117
Total: 243.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Memphis 2.5 points of respect on the road because Utah has been a disaster defensively and can’t seem to show up for opening tips. That 19-0 hole in Denver wasn’t an anomaly — it’s a symptom of a team that lacks discipline and defensive identity. Memphis, even without Morant, has Jaren Jackson Jr. anchoring things on both ends at 17.7 points per game and elite rim protection. The Grizzlies also own a 7-8 road record, which suggests they can compete away from home even in this depleted state.
But once you factor in the offensive talent Utah still has on the floor, this number starts to feel stretched. Lauri Markkanen is averaging 27.8 points and 7.1 rebounds, and Keyonte George has emerged as a legitimate secondary scorer at 23.9 points and 6.9 assists per game. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. Utah has the firepower to keep pace with Memphis, especially at home where they’ve won seven of 16 games. The total sitting at 243.5 tells you the market expects both teams to push tempo and score, and I think that’s the right read. The question is whether Memphis can cover nearly three points without their best playmaker and with Vince Williams Jr. also sidelined.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Memphis is dealing with significant rotation issues. Morant is out with an ankle injury, Brandon Clarke is done for three weeks with a Grade 2 calf strain, and Vince Williams Jr. won’t play due to a knee issue. That leaves the Grizzlies relying heavily on Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama, and a thin supporting cast. Jackson is averaging 17.7 points with 5.3 rebounds and elite shot-blocking ability, but he’s not a primary creator. Aldama has stepped up at 13.6 points and 6.6 boards, but asking him to carry offensive possessions against a team that can score like Utah is a tall order.
The Grizzlies lost to Oklahoma City 119-103 in their last outing, and while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went off for 31, the bigger issue was Memphis’s inability to generate efficient offense without Morant running the show. When you do the math over 96 possessions, Memphis needs to find 8-10 more efficient trips than Utah to cover this spread on the road. I’ve accounted for their defensive discipline and Jackson’s rim protection, but the offensive creation just isn’t there without Ja.
Utah Jazz Breakdown: The Other Side
Utah is a mess defensively, but their offensive talent is undeniable. Markkanen at 27.8 points per game is a legitimate All-Star-level scorer, and George’s emergence as a 23.9-point, 6.9-assist floor general gives them two legitimate offensive engines. The problem is Walker Kessler is done for the season after shoulder surgery, which strips away their best rim protector and rebounder. Kevin Love is day-to-day and was rested in the Denver game, so his availability is unclear.
But here’s what matters for this matchup: Utah can score at home. They’ve won seven games at the Delta Center, and while their 7-9 home record isn’t impressive, they’ve shown they can hang with teams when Markkanen and George are clicking. The 135-112 loss in Denver was ugly, but that was on the road against the hottest shooting team in the league. At home against a shorthanded Memphis squad, I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — Utah has the offensive weapons to exploit Memphis’s lack of depth and playmaking.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the halfcourt. Memphis will try to grind possessions and lean on Jackson’s defense, but without Morant, they lack the burst and creativity to consistently generate quality looks. Utah, meanwhile, will push pace and hunt mismatches for Markkanen and George. The total at 243.5 suggests both teams will score in the 120s, and I think that’s realistic given Memphis’s defensive absences and Utah’s offensive firepower.
The main risk here is Utah’s defensive inconsistency. They gave up 135 in Denver and routinely allow opponents to shoot efficiently, especially in transition. But this matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests because Memphis doesn’t have the personnel to capitalize on those defensive breakdowns. When you factor in pace and possession efficiency, Utah’s ability to score at home gives them enough of an edge to stay within a possession or two.
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get Memphis to three points of separation. The Grizzlies are disciplined and well-coached, but asking them to win by three on the road without Morant, Clarke, and Williams against a team with two 20-plus point scorers is a stretch. This line should be closer to a pick’em or Memphis -1.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Utah Jazz +2.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m taking Utah plus the points at home. Memphis is too shorthanded to cover nearly three points on the road against a team that can score like the Jazz. Markkanen and George give Utah enough offensive firepower to keep this game within a possession, and I trust the Delta Center crowd to give them just enough juice to compete. The main risk is Utah’s defensive breakdowns and their tendency to fall behind early, but Memphis doesn’t have the playmaking to blow this game open without Morant.
When you do the math over 96 possessions, Utah’s offensive efficiency at home and Memphis’s lack of creation make this a one-possession game. I’ll take the points and trust the home team to hang around.
