The Setup: Grizzlies at Lakers
The Lakers are laying 6 points at home against Memphis on Sunday night at Crypto.com Arena, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Los Angeles just beat this same Grizzlies squad 128-121 on Friday in what turned into a shootout, and now Memphis has to turn around and play them again less than 48 hours later. The market is essentially asking: can a shorthanded Grizzlies team that’s 15-19 on the season and sitting 10th in the West cover six points in a back-to-back spot against a Lakers team that’s 21-11 and playing at home?
Here’s the thing—I’m not buying Memphis in this spot. The Grizzlies are dealing with significant injury questions, including Ja Morant being questionable with a right calf contusion and Santi Aldama day-to-day with ankle soreness. Vince Williams Jr. is already ruled out. Meanwhile, the Lakers have Luka Doncic averaging 33.6 points per game with Austin Reaves chipping in 26.6 PPG, and they just watched Memphis’s defensive coverages for 48 minutes the night before. Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think it’s actually a point or two short of where it should be.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 4, 2026, 9:30 ET
Location: Crypto.com Arena
Spread: Lakers -6.0 (-110)
Total: 237.5
Moneyline: Lakers -238 | Grizzlies +189
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Lakers -6 for a few clear reasons. First, Memphis is playing their second game in two nights while the Lakers get the same rest advantage—both teams played Friday, but Los Angeles is at home and doesn’t have to deal with any travel or venue adjustment. Second, the Lakers are 9-6 at home this season, which isn’t dominant but represents a clear advantage over Memphis’s 8-10 road record. Third, and most importantly, the personnel gap is real.
Doncic dropped 34 points on Memphis on Friday with half of those coming from the free-throw line, and LeBron James added 31. That’s 65 combined points from two guys who know exactly how to attack this defense now. On the other side, Memphis got solid contributions but couldn’t slow down the Lakers’ offensive efficiency when it mattered. Now they’re potentially without Morant, who averages 19.0 PPG and 7.6 APG, and possibly Aldama, who chips in 14.3 PPG and 6.7 RPG.
Once you dig into the matchup data, this spread is asking Memphis to stay within six points despite being undermanned, fatigued, and facing a Lakers team that just saw every coverage and rotation they run. The line isn’t inflated—it’s actually giving Memphis more credit than the situation warrants.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Memphis sits at 15-19 and 10th in the Western Conference, which tells you everything about where this team is right now. They’re not a bad squad when healthy—Morant can create offense in bunches, Jaren Jackson Jr. is averaging 18.6 PPG and 5.6 RPG, and they have enough pieces to hang around in games. But the key phrase there is “when healthy,” and that’s not the case heading into Saturday.
If Morant can’t go or is limited with that calf contusion, Memphis loses their primary playmaker and the guy who generates 7.6 assists per game. That’s not just a stat—it’s how this offense functions. Without Morant orchestrating, the Grizzlies become far more predictable and easier to defend. Jackson can score, but he’s not a point-forward who can run an offense for 35 minutes. Aldama’s questionable status only compounds the problem, as he’s their third-leading scorer and a versatile frontcourt piece.
The main risk here for Memphis is depth. Vince Williams Jr. is already out, and if they’re down two or three rotation players, they simply don’t have the bodies to match up with a Lakers team that can go nine or ten deep when needed.
Los Angeles Lakers Breakdown: The Other Side
The Lakers are 21-11 and sitting 5th in the West, and they’re getting elite production from their top three guys. Doncic is putting up 33.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG, and 8.7 APG—those are MVP-caliber numbers. Austin Reaves has taken a massive leap, averaging 26.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 6.3 APG, which gives Los Angeles a legitimate second scoring option who can create his own shot. And LeBron, even at this stage, is still contributing 20.9 PPG and 6.5 APG while providing veteran leadership and defensive IQ.
What makes this Lakers team dangerous is the balance. They’re not relying on one guy to carry them—they have three players who can get you 20-plus on any given night, and they just proved it on Friday. Doncic and LeBron combined for 65, but Reaves and the supporting cast kept Memphis honest throughout.
The Lakers are also 12-5 on the road, which shows they can win anywhere, but they’re back home for this one at Crypto.com Arena. They’re missing Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, and Adou Thiero, but none of those guys are core rotation pieces right now. The Lakers have the depth and the star power to cover six points against a compromised Memphis team.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows to one key factor: can Memphis generate enough offense in a back-to-back spot to stay within striking distance? Friday’s game went 128-121, which suggests both teams can score, but that total came with Memphis relatively healthy and fresh. Now they’re potentially without Morant and Aldama, playing their second game in two nights, and facing a Lakers defense that just spent 48 minutes studying their offensive sets.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. The Lakers have three guys averaging over 20 PPG, and Memphis might be down to one or two depending on Morant’s status. Over the course of a full game, that’s a massive difference in shot creation and offensive firepower. When you do the math over 96 possessions, the Lakers should be able to pull away in the second half when fatigue becomes a factor for Memphis.
The pace should be similar to Friday’s game—both teams like to push tempo when they can—but the difference is that Los Angeles will have fresher legs and better depth. If Memphis has to lean on Jackson and their bench for extended minutes, the Lakers will exploit that with their three-headed attack of Doncic, Reaves, and LeBron.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 6 points with the Lakers at home. This is a 2-unit play for me.
Here’s why: Memphis is compromised, fatigued, and facing a team that just beat them and knows exactly how to attack their defense. The Lakers have the star power, the depth, and the home-court advantage. Even if Morant plays, he’s not going to be 100% with that calf issue, and that’s enough to tilt this game in Los Angeles’s favor by a touchdown or more.
The main risk here is if the Lakers come out flat after an emotional win on Friday and let Memphis hang around. But I’ve accounted for the home court—and it still doesn’t get there for the Grizzlies. Los Angeles should win this game by double digits, which makes Lakers -6 a solid value.
The Play: Lakers -6 (-110) | 2 Units
