The Spurs are laying -5.5 without Wembanyama and Castle. Bryan Bash breaks down the catastrophic personnel losses and the resulting value to deliver his 3-unit prediction for the home side.
The Setup: Grizzlies at Spurs
This line’s a joke. The Spurs are laying 5.5 points at home against a Grizzlies squad that’s limping into Frost Bank Center without Ja Morant, and somehow Vegas thinks this number holds water? Look, I get it—San Antonio’s sitting pretty at 13-6 and they’re 8-2 at home, but let’s pump the brakes before we start handing out cash to the house. The Grizzlies are 9-12 and missing their floor general, but they just watched Zach Edey drop a career-high 32 points and 17 rebounds on Sacramento. Meanwhile, the Spurs are without Victor Wembanyama, who’s been their entire identity this season at 26.2 PPG and 12.9 RPG. They’re also missing Stephon Castle, who’s been putting up 17.3 PPG and 7.5 APG. The market’s disrespecting Memphis here, and I’m not buying the narrative that San Antonio rolls without their two best players just because they’re at home.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 2, 2025, 8:00 ET
Location: Frost Bank Center
TV: Check local listings
Current Betting Lines (Bovada):
- Spread: Grizzlies +5.5 (-115) | Spurs -5.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Grizzlies +175 | Spurs -210
- Total: Over 231.5 (-110) | Under 231.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books are begging you to take Memphis and the points, which should immediately make you suspicious. On paper, this screams Grizzlies value—they’re getting nearly a touchdown at home against a Spurs team missing their franchise cornerstone. But here’s what Vegas is banking on: the public sees “no Ja Morant” and assumes Memphis can’t score, while they see San Antonio’s 13-6 record and think the Spurs are invincible at Frost Bank Center. That’s lazy thinking, and it’s exactly how the house makes money.
Here’s the reality check nobody’s talking about: Wembanyama isn’t just another player for San Antonio—he’s literally everything. Those 26.2 points and 12.9 rebounds per game don’t just disappear into thin air. And Castle’s absence? That’s another 17.3 PPG and 7.5 APG gone. Meanwhile, Memphis just proved they can function without Morant when Edey went nuclear for 32 and 17 against the Kings. The kid shot 16-of-20 from the floor and is averaging 13.6 PPG and 11.1 RPG on the season. Jaren Jackson Jr. is still there putting up 18.3 PPG, and this team has shown they can compete on the road with a 5-6 away record.
The total sitting at 231.5 tells me Vegas expects a shootout, but I’m not convinced either team has the firepower to get there without their best offensive weapons. This number feels inflated based on season averages rather than the reality of who’s actually suiting up tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s address the elephant in the room: no Ja Morant is a massive blow. The man’s been running the show at 7.6 APG while chipping in 17.9 PPG. Losing your primary playmaker and decision-maker hurts, especially on the road where Memphis is just 5-6 this season. But here’s what the casual bettor misses—this Grizzlies team has been built to survive these situations.
Zach Edey is the real story here. The rookie center just dominated Sacramento with a career night, and he’s been a beast all season at 13.6 PPG and 11.1 RPG. That’s three double-doubles already, and he’s giving Memphis a legitimate presence in the paint they haven’t had in years. Jaren Jackson Jr. remains their go-to scorer at 18.3 PPG, and while he’s not the most efficient player, he can get buckets when needed.
The concern? Ty Jerome is out for another 6-9 weeks with a calf injury, which thins out their backcourt depth even more. Jock Landale is questionable with ankle soreness, which could hurt their frontcourt rotation. At 9-12 overall, this isn’t a good team by any stretch, but they’re scrappy and they’ve shown they can hang around in games they have no business competing in.
San Antonio Spurs Breakdown: The Other Side
The Spurs have been one of the league’s surprise stories at 13-6, and that 8-2 home record is legit. But strip away Wembanyama and Castle, and what are we really looking at? De’Aaron Fox has been solid at 24.1 PPG and 6.6 APG, and he’ll need to be the primary offensive engine with the two young stars sidelined. That’s a lot of pressure on Fox to carry the scoring load against a Memphis team that will throw bodies at him all night.
The depth chart takes a massive hit without Castle’s 17.3 PPG and 7.5 APG. That’s not just scoring—that’s playmaking and floor spacing gone. Jordan McLaughlin is also out with a hamstring issue, which further depletes their backcourt options. This is exactly the spot where San Antonio burns you. Everyone sees that pretty record and assumes they’ll just keep rolling, but basketball doesn’t work that way when you’re missing your two best young players.
The home court advantage is real—that 8-2 mark at Frost Bank Center shows they’re comfortable in their building. But how much of that success is directly tied to Wembanyama protecting the rim and dominating both ends? I’ve seen this movie before, and it usually ends with the public getting crushed because they bet the name on the jersey instead of who’s actually playing.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: can Memphis exploit the paint without Wembanyama protecting the rim? Edey just went off for 32 and 17 on 16-of-20 shooting, and now he gets to face a Spurs frontcourt that’s missing its defensive anchor. That’s the matchup that should terrify San Antonio backers. Edey’s 11.1 RPG gives Memphis second-chance opportunities, and Jaren Jackson Jr. can stretch the floor at 18.3 PPG to keep the Spurs honest.
On the flip side, Fox needs to have a monster game for San Antonio to cover this number. He’s capable of dropping 30-plus on any given night, but he’ll be facing constant pressure with Memphis able to load up defensively knowing Castle isn’t there to punish them. The pace of this game matters too—if Memphis can slow it down and pound the paint with Edey, they control the tempo and keep this close.
The total at 231.5 feels too high given the personnel losses on both sides. Morant’s playmaking is gone, Wembanyama’s scoring is gone, and Castle’s offensive production is gone. That’s a lot of points missing from the equation. Sharp money knows what’s up here—this game stays under that number unless we see some wild shooting variance.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering Memphis +5.5 before this line moves. The public’s all over San Antonio because they see the record and the home court, but they’re not paying attention to who’s actually playing. Wembanyama and Castle being out is catastrophic for the Spurs’ ability to cover this number, and Edey coming off a career game gives Memphis exactly the type of interior presence they need to exploit this matchup.
This is a 3-unit play on Grizzlies +5.5, and I’m also sprinkling a unit on the Under 231.5. Both teams are missing their primary offensive weapons, and I expect a grind-it-out game that stays in the 220s. Memphis keeps this within a possession or two, and we cash both tickets.
The play: Grizzlies +5.5 (3 units) | Under 231.5 (1 unit)
Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. Take the points and watch Memphis cover.
