Oklahoma City is a perfect 13-0 at home, but Bryan Bash explains why the double-digit point spread might be inflated for tonight’s clash at Paycom Center.
The Setup: Grizzlies at Thunder
Oklahoma City is laying 16.5 points at home against Memphis on Monday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. The Thunder are 25-3, sitting atop the Western Conference. They’re 13-0 at Paycom Center. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 13-15, sitting ninth in the West, and they’re walking into this game without Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, and Vince Williams Jr. The market sees a dominant home team against a depleted road squad and sets the line accordingly.
Here’s the thing — I get why this spread exists. But once you dig into what Memphis has been doing on the road this season and how Oklahoma City’s efficiency translates into actual scoring margin, that 16.5 starts to feel stretched. The Grizzlies are 7-7 on the road, which isn’t spectacular, but it’s not the profile of a team that gets blown out regularly away from home. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, and I’ll walk you through exactly why.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 22, 2025, 9:30 ET
Venue: Paycom Center
Current Spread: Thunder -16.5 (-110) / Grizzlies +16.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder -1800 / Grizzlies +850
Total: 228.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Let me walk you through why this line exists. Oklahoma City is 25-3 overall and a perfect 13-0 at home. That home dominance is real — they haven’t lost a single game at Paycom Center this season. When you’re that good at home and you’re facing a team missing its best player and two key rotation pieces, the market is going to price you as a massive favorite. The -1800 moneyline tells you everything about win probability here — the Thunder are expected to win this game outright.
But spreads aren’t about who wins. They’re about margin. And that’s where I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.5 points per game with 6.4 assists. He just dropped 35 in their loss to Minnesota on Friday. Jalen Williams adds 17.6 points and 5.3 assists per game. The Thunder have the personnel to dominate possessions and create separation.
Memphis, on the other hand, is without Morant, who averages 17.7 points and 7.5 assists. That’s not just scoring — that’s playmaking and pace control. Without him, the Grizzlies lose their primary initiator. Clarke and Williams are out too, which thins their frontcourt rotation significantly. The market sees all of this and says: Thunder by 17 or more.
What the market might be overvaluing is recency bias. Memphis just lost to Washington at home, blowing a 20-point lead in a 130-122 defeat. That’s a bad look. But the Wizards got 28 points each from CJ McCollum and Kyshawn George — that’s an offensive explosion that won’t be easy for most teams to replicate. The Thunder are better than Washington, sure, but they’re not going to shoot 60% from the field every night either.
Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Memphis is 13-15, but their road record of 7-7 is actually better than their home mark of 6-8. That tells me they’re not a team that wilts in hostile environments. Jaren Jackson Jr. is their leading scorer at 18.0 points per game with 5.3 rebounds. Santi Aldama chips in 13.8 points and 6.6 rebounds. Without Morant, the offensive load falls on these two, and they’ll need to be efficient in the halfcourt.
The problem for Memphis is depth. With Clarke and Williams out, their frontcourt rotation is compromised. Clarke provides rim protection and energy off the bench. Williams is a versatile defender who can guard multiple positions. Losing both of them means the Grizzlies will struggle to match up with Oklahoma City’s length and athleticism, especially when the Thunder go to their bench.
But here’s what Memphis does well: they don’t quit. Their road record proves they can hang around in tough environments. Jackson Jr. is a legitimate two-way player who can stretch the floor and protect the rim. Aldama has shown he can create his own shot when needed. If Memphis can keep this game in the halfcourt and avoid letting Oklahoma City run in transition, they can stay within striking distance longer than this spread suggests.
Thunder Breakdown: The Other Side
Oklahoma City is 25-3 for a reason. Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP candidate averaging 32.5 points per game on elite efficiency. He’s the engine that drives everything for this team. Jalen Williams is a secondary creator who can score and facilitate. Even without Chet Holmgren’s 18.7 points and 7.8 rebounds in the lineup for this particular matchup context, the Thunder have the depth to overwhelm opponents.
What makes Oklahoma City so dangerous at home is their defensive versatility. They can switch everything, they protect the rim, and they force turnovers. Against a Memphis team missing its primary ball-handler, the Thunder should be able to ramp up defensive pressure and create easy transition opportunities. That’s where blowouts happen — when the defense creates offense.
The concern for Oklahoma City is complacency. They just lost to Minnesota on Friday, 112-107, despite 35 points from Gilgeous-Alexander. Anthony Edwards hit the go-ahead three with 38.5 seconds left, and the Thunder couldn’t respond. That’s a tough loss, especially on the road. Now they’re back home where they’re undefeated, but they’re also laying 16.5 points against a team that has nothing to lose. Do they come out focused and blow the doors off Memphis early? Or do they let the Grizzlies hang around and make this a grind-it-out game?
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in two areas: transition opportunities and halfcourt execution. Oklahoma City wants to push pace and create easy baskets off Memphis turnovers. The Grizzlies, without Morant, will struggle to handle pressure and protect the ball. Every live-ball turnover becomes a potential Thunder runout, and those possessions add up quickly.
But if Memphis can limit turnovers and force Oklahoma City into halfcourt sets, they can keep this game closer than 16.5. The total is set at 228.5, which suggests the market expects a relatively high-scoring game. That pace benefits Oklahoma City, but it also means Memphis will get their possessions too. Jackson Jr. and Aldama can score in bunches if they get clean looks.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Oklahoma City is the better team, no question. But are they 17 points better than Memphis over 48 minutes? That’s a massive margin to cover, even at home. The Grizzlies are 7-7 on the road, which means they’ve been competitive away from Memphis. They’re not getting blown out every night.
The main risk here is that Oklahoma City comes out angry after losing to Minnesota and just buries Memphis early. If the Thunder go up 20 in the first half and maintain that cushion, the spread is toast. But if Memphis can weather the early storm and keep this within 10-12 points heading into the fourth quarter, they’ve got a real shot to cover.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Oklahoma City is the better team, and they should win this game comfortably. But 16.5 points is a lot to give a Memphis team that’s been respectable on the road and has legitimate NBA talent even without Morant. Jackson Jr. and Aldama can score. The Grizzlies won’t fold just because they’re shorthanded.
The play here is Memphis +16.5 for 2 units. I’m not saying the Grizzlies win this game outright — they probably don’t. But they cover if they can keep it within 15, and I think they can do that. Oklahoma City is 13-0 at home, but how many of those wins came by 17 or more? The market is overreacting to the injury news and the blowout loss to Washington. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
The main risk is an early blowout. If Oklahoma City jumps out to a 25-point lead in the first half, Memphis doesn’t have the firepower to claw all the way back. But if the Grizzlies can stay within striking distance through three quarters, they’ve got the backdoor cover in play. I’ll take the points and trust that Memphis competes harder than this spread expects.
The Pick: Grizzlies +16.5 (-110) for 2 units
