The books are daring bettors to back Golden State after a blowout loss, but Bryan Bash sees this as a prime fade spot. With Memphis’ size, defensive edge, and recent form, this inflated number looks like free money.
The Setup: Grizzlies at Warriors
The books have Golden State laying 8 points against Memphis on Monday night, and I’m here to tell you this line’s a joke. The Warriors just got embarrassed by Portland, losing 139-119 in a game where they got outscored 66-30 in the paint. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies bounced back from their own blowout loss with a convincing 128-103 win over Indiana, with rookie Cedric Coward going perfect from deep and dropping 27.
Vegas is banking on the public hammering Golden State at home after one bad loss, but I’m not buying the Warriors narrative here. This line screams trap, and I’m taking Memphis plus the points all day long.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Monday, October 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM eT
- Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
- Spread: Warriors -8.0
- Total: 239.0-239.5
- Moneyline: Warriors -330 / Grizzlies +265
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The market’s giving Golden State massive respect here, and it’s all built on reputation. Steph Curry’s averaging 33.3 points through three games, shooting 45.7% from beyond the arc on heavy volume. That’s the kind of stat line that makes casual bettors think this is a lock.
But here’s what the books aren’t advertising: the Warriors are 2-1 with a terrible loss already on the books. They got absolutely dominated in the paint against Portland, and their defense looked soft. Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green can’t save you when you’re getting carved up inside like that.
Memphis comes in at 2-1 as well, but their recent win was far more convincing. The Grizzlies led by 19 entering the fourth quarter and never let the Pacers back in it. Ja Morant dished out 8 assists without a single turnover. That’s control, and that’s the kind of performance that gets overlooked when the public’s busy drooling over Curry’s shooting numbers.
This 8-point spread is inflated by Golden State’s home court and Curry’s hot start. Sharp money knows Memphis has the size advantage and defensive intensity to keep this competitive. The books are begging you to take the Warriors, which is exactly when you fade the public.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s talk about what Memphis brings to the table. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a force on both ends, anchoring one of the league’s more physical frontcourts. He can stretch the floor and block shots, which creates matchup problems for Golden State’s smaller lineups.
The Grizzlies’ recent performances tell you everything about their potential in this matchup. In their blowout win over Indiana, Memphis shot 45.4% from the field and controlled the boards with a +5 rebounding advantage. They dominated the second half behind Cedric Coward’s explosive 27-point performance on perfect 6-for-6 shooting from three. Ja Morant was in complete control with 19 points and 8 assists while committing zero turnovers – that’s the kind of efficiency that wins road games.
Even more telling: in their most recent meeting with Golden State earlier this season, Memphis lost a close one but shot an impressive 48.8% from the field (42-86) and out-rebounded the Warriors by 8. They covered the spread despite the loss, showing they can hang with this Warriors team even when they don’t get the win.
The key here is Ja Morant’s efficiency. When he’s distributing and limiting turnovers like he did against the Pacers, Memphis operates smoothly. They don’t need to shoot 50% from three to cover 8 points on the road.
Golden State Warriors Breakdown: The Other Side
Golden State’s offense runs through Curry, and he’s been spectacular early on. Averaging 33.3 points with elite three-point shooting is vintage Steph. Draymond Green’s chipping in 7.3 assists while Jimmy Butler averages 22 points on 91% free throw shooting.
But here’s the problem: this team just got torched for 139 points at home. They couldn’t defend the rim, couldn’t control the boards, and looked completely out of sync defensively. Yes, it was one game, but it exposed real vulnerabilities that Memphis can exploit.
The Warriors are shooting well as a team through three games, but when you’re giving up that many points in the paint and losing by 20 at home, your offensive efficiency doesn’t matter as much. Defense wins in this league, and Golden State hasn’t shown they can consistently get stops against physical teams.
Buddy Hield’s been a solid addition off the bench, but the depth behind the stars is questionable. If Memphis can turn this into a grind-it-out game, Golden State’s lack of size becomes a massive liability.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to two factors: pace and paint presence. Memphis wants to slow this down and pound the ball inside. Golden State wants to run, shoot threes, and play in space. The team that dictates tempo wins.
Looking at the recent performance data, Memphis just dominated Indiana in the paint and on the boards. They’ve got the size with Jackson Jr. to attack Golden State’s interior. The Warriors gave up 66 paint points to Portland – that’s not a typo. Memphis will absolutely test that weakness.
Golden State’s strength is obvious: Curry bombing from deep. But Memphis has shown in their recent meetings they can make life difficult and keep games competitive. You don’t need to stop Curry completely; you just need to make him work for everything and slow down the pace.
The Warriors are coming off an embarrassing home loss and need to respond. That sounds like motivation, but it also means they might be pressing and forcing things early. Memphis is the more composed team right now. They bounced back from their own blowout with a controlled, professional win. That’s the sign of a team with its head on straight.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering Memphis plus the points here. This line’s inflated based on Golden State’s reputation and Curry’s hot start, but the matchup favors the Grizzlies. They’ve got the size, the defensive intensity, and the momentum coming off a convincing road win.
The Warriors just got embarrassed at home and showed major defensive cracks. Memphis will attack the paint relentlessly, control the tempo, and keep this game closer than 8 points. Their recent performance against Golden State – where they shot nearly 49% and out-rebounded them by 8 despite losing – shows they can compete. Even if Golden State wins, I expect Memphis to cover comfortably.
BASH’S BEST BET: Memphis Grizzlies +8.0 – The size advantage inside and Golden State’s defensive vulnerabilities make this number way too high. Load up on the Grizzlies before this line moves.
The market’s disrespecting Memphis here, and that’s when sharp money pounces. Don’t overthink it – take the points and watch the Grizzlies grind this one out.
