The Boston Celtics aim to protect their #2 Eastern Conference seed against an Atlanta Hawks squad riding a three-game win streak. In our latest NBA Picks, we break down Boston’s elite #2-ranked scoring defense (109.9 PPG) and how it counters Jalen Johnson’s triple-double threat in the half-court.
The Setup: Hawks at Celtics
Boston lays 6.5 at home against an Atlanta team that’s found rhythm with three straight wins, but the Celtics’ defensive structure and home efficiency make this number harder to crack than the Hawks’ recent form suggests. Atlanta’s 14-12 road record shows they travel well, but Boston’s 14-7 home mark comes with significantly better defensive metrics that narrow Atlanta’s offensive lanes. The line respects the Hawks’ recent stretch while pricing in Boston’s ability to control pace and limit transition opportunities—exactly where Atlanta generates its best looks.
Jalen Johnson’s been the engine for Atlanta at 23.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game, but the Celtics present a matchup problem with Jaylen Brown anchoring both ends at 29.6 points per contest. The spread sits at a number that demands Atlanta keep this within single digits, which means winning the possession battle and converting in the half-court against one of the league’s more disciplined defensive rotations.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Time: 7:30 ET
Location: TD Garden
TV: NBC Sports BO (Home), FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass (Away)
Current Spread: Hawks +6.5 (-110) | Celtics -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Hawks +215 | Celtics -270
Total: Over/Under 230.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The 6.5-point spread reflects Boston’s home efficiency advantage and defensive discipline against a Hawks team that’s won three straight but remains 23-25 overall and just 9-13 at home. The Celtics sit at 29-17 and second in the East for a reason—they control possessions and force opponents into contested half-court sets. Atlanta’s recent wins featured CJ McCollum dropping 23 against Indiana and Dyson Daniels adding 22 with nine assists, but that came in a game where they manufactured a 17-0 run to pull away. Boston doesn’t surrender those runs at TD Garden.
The total at 230.5 prices in both teams’ offensive firepower but accounts for Boston’s ability to dictate tempo. The Celtics just held Portland to 94 points Monday behind Payton Pritchard’s 23 and Brown’s 20, with Derrick White adding 18. That’s three scorers operating efficiently without forcing pace. Atlanta needs transition buckets to hit their ceiling, but Boston’s transition defense limits those opportunities by protecting the glass and avoiding live-ball turnovers.
The moneyline gap from +215 to -270 tells you the market believes Boston controls this game more often than not. The spread asks whether Atlanta can stay within a possession or two, which requires Johnson, Alexander-Walker, and McCollum all producing without one of them going cold for extended stretches.
Hawks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Atlanta’s three-game win streak masks some underlying concerns about their road performance in structured environments. Their 14-12 road record suggests competence away from home, but those wins often come in up-tempo games where they can push pace off misses and turnovers. Johnson’s 23.0 points, 10.4 boards, and 7.9 assists make him a triple-double threat every night, but he needs space to operate. Boston’s defense shrinks that space by switching effectively and rotating to help without overcommitting.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker at 20.3 points and CJ McCollum at 18.7 give Atlanta three legitimate scoring options, but the supporting cast thins quickly. Kristaps Porzingis remains out for Atlanta after missing eight games, though he’s cleared for basketball activities. Zaccharie Risacher will miss his 10th consecutive contest with a left knee bone bruise and is considered day-to-day. Those absences limit Atlanta’s frontcourt depth and defensive versatility against Brown and White attacking downhill.
The Hawks need Johnson to facilitate early offense and Alexander-Walker to knock down catch-and-shoot threes when Boston’s defense collapses. If they fall into isolation sets against Boston’s length, possessions get inefficient fast.
Celtics Breakdown: The Other Side
Boston’s 29-17 record and second-place conference standing come from balanced scoring and defensive consistency. Brown’s 29.6 points per game leads the way, but White at 17.6 and Pritchard at 16.8 mean the Celtics don’t rely on one guy getting hot. That distribution matters against Atlanta because it forces the Hawks to defend multiple actions without being able to shade help toward one scorer.
Pritchard hit buzzer-beaters to end both the first and second quarters Monday against Portland, which speaks to Boston’s execution in scripted situations. The Celtics run clean sets out of timeouts and dead balls, which neutralizes Atlanta’s transition advantage by keeping the ball out of live-play situations. White’s 5.4 assists per game show he’s comfortable running secondary actions, and his 17.6 scoring average means he can punish defenses that ignore him off the ball.
Neemias Queta is doubtful with an illness, and Luka Garza is questionable after missing Monday’s game. Those absences affect Boston’s frontcourt depth, but the Celtics’ perimeter-oriented offense doesn’t rely heavily on traditional big-man production. They’ll run more small-ball lineups and spread the floor, which actually plays into their strengths against Atlanta’s injury-thinned frontcourt.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to pace and half-court execution. Atlanta wants to push tempo and generate 95-plus possessions where they can attack in space before Boston’s defense gets set. The Celtics want to slow the game into the high 80s or low 90s in possessions, forcing Atlanta into contested jumpers against their switching scheme. Over a 90-possession game, that difference in shot quality adds up to 8-10 points in expected value.
Boston’s transition defense will be the key. They rank among the better teams at getting back and protecting the rim after opponent makes, which eliminates Atlanta’s easiest scoring opportunities. If the Hawks can’t generate early offense, they’re stuck attacking Brown and White in isolation or running pick-and-rolls against a defense that switches everything and rarely gives up clean driving lanes.
The other factor is Atlanta’s three-point variance. Alexander-Walker and McCollum both need to connect from deep to keep Boston’s defense honest. If they shoot below 35 percent combined, the Celtics can load up on Johnson and force role players to beat them. Boston’s perimeter defense doesn’t give up many clean looks, which means Atlanta’s shooters will be working off movement and contested catches rather than spot-up opportunities.
With Porzingis and Risacher out for Atlanta, the Hawks lack the frontcourt size to challenge Boston’s drives consistently. That opens up the paint for Brown and White to attack closeouts and finish at the rim or kick to Pritchard for open threes. Atlanta’s defensive rotations will be a step slow all night without that length.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Celtics at -6.5 is the play. Atlanta’s three-game win streak is real, but it came in environments where they could dictate pace and generate transition looks. Boston takes that away at TD Garden by controlling the glass and avoiding live-ball turnovers. The Hawks need everything to break right—Johnson facilitating at an elite level, both Alexander-Walker and McCollum connecting from three, and Boston’s role players going cold—to stay within this number. That’s too many variables against a Celtics team that’s 14-7 at home with the defensive structure to limit Atlanta’s best actions.
Brown’s 29.6 per game and Boston’s three-headed scoring attack gives them multiple ways to generate offense even if one option struggles. Atlanta doesn’t have that depth, especially with Porzingis and Risacher out. The Celtics win this by double digits more often than they win by less than six, which makes laying the points the right side.
The risk is Atlanta getting hot from three and turning this into a shootout, but Boston’s perimeter defense makes that unlikely. If the Celtics execute their half-court sets and force Atlanta into contested looks, this game stays in their control from the second quarter on.
BASH’S BEST BET: Celtics -6.5 for 2 units.
